Swimming Ratings System

[Drallep]

Good evening all, I am currently in the process of trying to develop a swimming ratings system in preparation for the Olympics this summer. I have used a variation of a Don Scott method, taking the fastest times of swimmers from the previous 2 years prior to the games. Here is my analysis for the Mens 4x200 Free Relay: [TABLE=width: 913]

[TR] [TD=width: 75]POWER[/TD] [TD=width: 88]SUM[/TD] [TD=width: 75][/TD] [TD=width: 75][/TD] [TD=width: 75][/TD] [TD=width: 75][/TD] [TD=width: 75][/TD] [TD=width: 75][/TD] [TD=width: 75][/TD] [TD=width: 75][/TD] [TD=width: 75][/TD] [TD=width: 75][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]0.440355398[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]4.46[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Rank[/TD] [TD]Country[/TD] [TD]Rating[/TD] [TD]Behind[/TD] [TD]Multiplier[/TD] [TD]Odds %[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Confidence[/TD] [TD]Back[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]BET[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]11[/TD] [TD]Canada[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]97.4[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]2.6[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]0.12[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]2.7[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]36.8[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.167[/TD] [TD=class: xl26, align: right]43[/TD] [TD=class: xl26, align: right]32[/TD] [TD=align: right]34[/TD] [TD]NO BET[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]10[/TD] [TD]Italy[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]97.8[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]2.2[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]0.16[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]27.9[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.167[/TD] [TD=class: xl26, align: right]33[/TD] [TD=class: xl26, align: right]24[/TD] [TD=align: right]21[/TD] [TD]NO BET[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [TD]South Africa[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]98.1[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]1.9[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]0.22[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]4.9[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]20.5[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.167[/TD] [TD=class: xl26, align: right]24[/TD] [TD=class: xl26, align: right]18[/TD] [TD=align: right]51[/TD] [TD]BET[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD]Great Britain[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]98.3[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]1.7[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]0.25[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]5.6[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]17.9[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.167[/TD] [TD=class: xl26, align: right]21[/TD] [TD=class: xl26, align: right]15[/TD] [TD=align: right]17[/TD] [TD]NO BET[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [TD]Japan[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]98.5[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]1.5[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]0.30[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]6.7[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]14.9[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.167[/TD] [TD=class: xl26, align: right]17[/TD] [TD=class: xl26, align: right]13[/TD] [TD=align: right]17[/TD] [TD]NO BET[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD]Australia[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]98.5[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]1.5[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]0.30[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]6.8[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]14.8[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.167[/TD] [TD=class: xl26, align: right]17[/TD] [TD=class: xl26, align: right]13[/TD] [TD=align: right]11[/TD] [TD]NO BET[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD]Germany[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]98.9[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]1.1[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]0.39[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]8.8[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]11.3[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.167[/TD] [TD=class: xl26, align: right]13[/TD] [TD=class: xl26, align: right]10[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD]NO BET[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD]Russia[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]99.0[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]1.0[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]0.45[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]10.0[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]10.0[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.167[/TD] [TD=class: xl26, align: right]12[/TD] [TD=class: xl26, align: right]9[/TD] [TD=align: right]34[/TD] [TD]BET[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD]China[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]99.4[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]0.6[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]0.60[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]13.4[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]7.5[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.167[/TD] [TD=class: xl26, align: right]9[/TD] [TD=class: xl26, align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD]NO BET[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD]France[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]99.5[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]0.5[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]0.67[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]15.1[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]6.6[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.167[/TD] [TD=class: xl26, align: right]8[/TD] [TD=class: xl26, align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.75[/TD] [TD]NO BET[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD]USA[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]100.0[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]0.0[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]1.00[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]22.4[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, align: right]4.5[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.167[/TD] [TD=class: xl26, align: right]5[/TD] [TD=class: xl26, align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.8[/TD] [TD]NO BET[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] With formulae: [TABLE=width: 913] [TR] [TD=width: 75]POWER[/TD] [TD=width: 88]SUM[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]R squared of rank v odds[/TD] [TD=class: xl25, align: right]SUM(Multipliers)[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 828] [TR] [TD=width: 160]Rating[/TD] [TD=width: 160]Behind[/TD] [TD=width: 136]Multiplier[/TD] [TD=width: 122]Odds %[/TD] [TD=width: 66]Odds[/TD] [TD=width: 68]Confidence[/TD] [TD=width: 138]Back[/TD] [TD=width: 138]Lay[/TD] [TD=width: 138]Odds[/TD] [TD=width: 138]Bet[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl24]=MIN(time)/time[/TD] [TD=class: xl24]=MAX(Rating)-Rating[/TD] [TD=class: xl25]=Power^Behind[/TD] [TD=class: xl24]=(Multiplier*100)/SUM[/TD] [TD=class: xl24]=100/Odds%[/TD] [TD]0.167[/TD] [TD=class: xl26]=100/(Odds%/(1+Confidence))[/TD] [TD=class: xl26]=100/(Odds%*(1+Confidence))[/TD] [TD=class: xl26]From Wiliam Hill[/TD] [TD=class: xl26]If Odds>Back*2=BET[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] I am looking for some help on how to improve my rating system. To clarify I currently take the time for the competitor that I am looking at as a percentage of the fastest time in my sample. I think this can be more robust as my ratings system will not allow me to back favourites. Does anyone have any ideas how to do this? Also, if anyone needs any clarification of my calculations then please let me know. I look forward to your responses. Kind Regards, Drallep