The "All Green" Grand National 2013

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013

I see Beshabar is going straight to the National?? That puts me off a bit i must admit :( On his Own would have a big chance, ona great handicap mark and going supremely well when he came to grief last year. The presence of Tidal Bay would mean a clutch of fancied horses get in off featherweights. On His Own would be one of them.

Wondered about Beshabar only last night. That is an odd move. He is an absolute National horse though in my eyes and like I said at the time, would have been very keen if he'd have been able to run last year. Fair mark too. Haven't seen anything regarding On His Own but isn't a big price on Betfair so can only presume he's still gearing towards the race.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 I have had £5 on Any Currency @ 100.0 Cant go into detail now as i'm at work but he will realistically need a win to get into the race. I notice McCoy is up for the first time today at 2.15 suggesting they are really going for it today. Stays all day and the National has been nominated as his aim. Will post further detail around this during the week.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 Thoughts from the stable : The third runner is Any Currency in the North Yorkshire Grand National and with Aidan Coleman being claimed for his main stable, Any Currency is partnered by A P McCoy for the first time. I think the trip and ground should suit and hope the track isn't too sharp for him. He's in great form and I think he'll run a big race.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013

Sunday 9th December 2012 - The dream's still alive......

Any Currency absolutely loved the National fences at Aintree yesterday and although it was frustrating that he made his only mistake and unseated Aidan Coleman at the Canal Turn. However we learnt so much and he jumped for fun - making nothing of Bechers Brook and he even continued to jump round after unseating Aidan. Aidan was buzzing when I saw him afterwards and we all now very much look forward to Aintree in April.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 Promising Anshan ran on the 16th of Jan in a Hunters Chase, finishing 2nd to easy winner Chapoturgeon. I note he has been moved from Paul Nicholls stable to someone called J O’Shea. I may have to write this one off as a National horse for now. Oscar Time runs in the 2.15 at Thurles today and is likely to be outclassed. Similar comments apply to Joncol who has lost his way a little bit but ran well enough over hurdles last time to suggest his confidence could have been given a boost. The following is taken from the Paul Nolan Stable Tour on At the Races and it implies the Grand National could be considered. Credentials for that race are unknown really, although he does have Montelimar in his pedigree which is a positive. Starting to look well handicapped on old form and definitely worth an interest at the odds available. "We fancied him in Punchestown in October even though it was his first run for nine-months but we thought we had problems from the last couple of seasons sorted out and we were very happy with him. We were disappointed on the day even though he did run well and finished third. We put cheek pieces on in Down Royal as we felt he raced a bit lazily in Punchestown but for whatever reason he backed off his fences. He has been in good form since and we don't know why he was backing off his fences the last day and he didn't run a stinking bad race but we are scratching our heads a bit. He will not run in the John Durkan and we are strongly considering running him over hurdles which he has never done before. There is a novice hurdle in Navan in two-weeks time and he jumps hurdles at home better now than he did as a young horse and we just think we might drop him in class and change things for him and rekindle that old spark for him. How many runs over hurdles he'll have will depend on his first one, but I don't think the Lexus is the plan either, possibly the Hennessy or maybe the Kinloch Brae in Thurles. We wouldn't even rule out the Grand National at Aintree. He did have a serious injury after the Lexus last year and there is every chance it is just going to take a couple of runs to get him the confidence to get that injury out of his mind." Joncol £4 @ 664.8

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 Katenko £20 @ 120.0 Looks like will get an entry for former winner Venetia Williams who rates him highly, not ruling out a Gold Cup entry either. That looks ambitious but if he is held is that regard then a rating of 147 could be lenient. Potentially a bit young at 7 years old and inexperienced, however at the price, well worth getting involved with bearing in mind he has traded as low as 55.0. May look to lay off this weekend if he runs well. It’s hard to see him winning – only 3 chase runs. He would be an absolute trends buster but one things for sure, 120.0 will be tradeable, which suits me.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 Venetia Williams believes Katenko could develop into a contender for both the John Smith's Grand National and Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup. Williams describes Aintree as a "very serious option" but she feels taking on the best at level weights at Cheltenham could also be possible. The seven-year-old looked a young chaser on the up when winning a staying handicap chase at Sandown in good style earlier this month. "He was bought as a horse we could have some fun with. I persuaded Andrew (Brooks, owner) this could be a good horse for him to have as his rating was such that he could just get in the Grand National and now that is a very serious option," the Herefordshire trainer told At The Races. "The handicap rating he's got at the moment (147) doesn't suggest he's an obvious Gold Cup contender, but if he goes and wins his next race, whatever that might be, that could bring him into the 150s or early 160s. "A few years ago we ran Mon Mome in the Gold Cup. He finished third and the prize for that was £50,000 and there is no reason to think Katenko couldn't come into that bracket." Katenko currently holds two entries on Saturday, the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster and the Murphy Group Chase at Cheltenham, but both meetings are not certain to go ahead because of the cold weather.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 Nigel Twiston-Davies intends to hand his 2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Imperial Commander an entry in the John Smith's Grand National. The 11-year-old has been off the track since pulling up in his Gold Cup defence in 2011, when he burst a blood vessel. He subsequently sustained a tendon injury but was due to make his comeback in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last month. However, a hind leg injury ruled him out of that race and he is now pencilled in to return at Cheltenham in the Argento Chase next month. While Twiston-Davies is happy with Imperial Commander's progress, he feels a National entry is a suitable fallback option should his stable star not return to his Grade One-winning level of form. He said: "If Imperial Commander shows he isn't quite as good as he was, then the National is the obvious thing. But we are hoping he is as good as he was. "I have not spoken to his owners about the National yet. Imperial Commander is on the horse walker and swimming at the moment."

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 Imperial Commander £5 @ 200.0 The above article caught my eye. The way I look at it is that NTD has implied that if IC isn’t back to his best, then he will probably run in the Grand National. So will he be back to his best? For me it seems unlikely. He is 12 years old, which is past when horses usually peak and secondly, he has been off injured for a year. Recent gallop reports have been good but I will be surprised if he is good enough to be a threat in the Gold Cup. It will be a marvellous training feat if he is. I suspect he will come up short in the Argento and will have his sights lowered to the National. At 200.0, worth a risk.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 Midnight Chase £15 @ 83.33 A high class lover of Cheltenham, this one was 5th in last year’s Gold Cup. A bold front runner which is favourable in the hustle and bustle of the National, his mark is slipping to a more realistic level. After being rated in the 160s I think he is 155 now, which is much closer to a winning mark. Has a similar profile to last year’s winner in that regard. Has an entry in the Skybet Chase.

[Aidymac]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 Hi mate, how much of a betting bank do you need to do this? Just curious.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 LAY - The Package £10 @ 19.0 Ran last time out over hurdles and went off a well backed favourite. His Grand National price shortened in anticipation of a good run and I layed at 19.0 prior to the race. As it was, he ran an average race, fading badly late on after lookign dangerous. I dont read too much into hurdle prep races so I wouldnt be unduly worried about it and he is still one of my main hopes. He has drifted out to about 28.0 now, which i think is still just about backable.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 LAY - Any Currency £5 @ 100.0 You will recall I backed this for £5 @ 10.0 before he last ran as McCoy was up and they were clearly going for the in he needs to get his rating high enough. it didnt happen and it looks doubtful he will make the cut at th emoment. Managed to lay off at the same price although he curiously has shortened to 75.0 since then, so an opportunity missed for a 25/1 free bet - doh!

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 [h=1]National service for Beshabar[/h]

• Last Updated: November 29 2012, 9:39 GMT

[h=2]Long-term absentee Beshabar is set to be prepared for a tilt at the John Smith's Grand National at Aintree without the aid of a prep run.[/h] Grand National. Click here to bet. Beshabar: Grand National aim

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Tim Vaughan's 2011 Scottish National winner has not been seen since finishing an excellent fifth in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury a year ago after suffering a tendon injury during the race.

• Profiles

• Tim Vaughan
• Beshabar (IRE)

He is now back in light work, however, and Nick Bradley, racing manager for owners Middleham Park racing, is hoping the British Horseracing Authority's head of handicapping Phil Smith grants him a place in the National next April. "He got a tendon injury in the Hennessy a year ago and it was quite a bad one, but thankfully he got the all-clear from the vet last week," said Bradley. "He's been doing roadwork and has been on the horse walker and now he's back cantering, so we'll keep our fingers crossed for him. "The plan is to go straight to the Grand National with him, as long as Phil Smith allows him to do so. "We don't want to go back to the racecourse before then and get a recurrence of the tendon injury. "He could go for a racecourse gallop or two and then go to Aintree nice and fresh and, hopefully, on a nice, low weight."

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 LAY - Beshabar - £20 @ 40.0 Not sure I like the plans for this one. Going to the National without a prep run is a big enough ask on its own but after a year out through injury? I'm not convinced and it means there is little manouver for the price to shorten. He looks an ideal National horse otherwise but the funds are better used elsewhere for now.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 LAY - Cannington Brook - £6 @ 400.0 No indications of plans for this one yet and the price hasnt moved much on betfair to give us a clue. I can lay off for a 200/1 free bet which will do me for now. LAY - Little Josh - £4 @ 250.0 Have layed some of this off as he isnt actually eligible for the race yet - he needs to be placed over 3m+. He has an entry in the Argento, where he could achieve this. Indications are that he will go for the Topham at the moment, which is a shame. LAY - Join Together - £20 @ 24.0 Following his exciting run in the Becher, the price collapsed. Seems silly not to lay off while I can. Confirmed by Nicholls that his 3 entries will be Join Together, Tidal Bay and Harry the Viking. LAY - Tharawaat - £3 @ 70.0 Seems an opportune time to lay off given the shorter price. Last year's 7th could go closer with another year's experience under his belt.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 I'll update the spreadsheet tonight and respond to Aidy too :ok

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 Katenko runs in 10 minutes at Cheltenham, so may be an opportunity to lay off there. Little Josh runs in the Argento to try and get the top 3 finish he needs to qualify for the National - connections appear to be considering this now :ok Midnight Chase and Imperial Commander also run today, so lots of interest for me.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013

Little Josh also has grand designs on the John Smith's Grand National.

Jockey Sam Twiston-Davies said: "He needs to be placed over three miles to get a place in the National so I guess that's the thinking behind running him.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 [h=1]Oscar Time clocks in for Bobbyjo[/h]

• Last Updated: January 20 2013, 12:24 GMT

[h=2]Oscar Time is to follow the same path as he did when runner-up to Ballabriggs in the 2011 John Smith's Grand National.[/h] Grand National. Click here to bet. Oscar Time: Following a tried and tested path

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Connections of the Martin Lynch-trained gelding have pencilled in the At The Races Bobbjyo Chase at Fairyhouse on February 23 as the prep target ahead of another tilt at the Aintree spectacular on April 6. Oscar Time finished third to The Midnight Club in that Grade Two heat over three miles and a furlong before taking second spot in the National two years ago. Injury prevented him from going to Merseyside last season and his build-up to the great race this time suffered a slight blip when Oscar Time unseated owner Robert Waley-Cohen's son, Sam, in the Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles on Thursday.

• Profiles

• Oscar Time (IRE)

"He is absolutely fine. Unfortunately Joncol just flicked a bit of birch into his face as he took off, so he decided he'd put in an extra stride before the fence and there wasn't enough time," said the owner. "Then he got banged into by Paul Carberry's horse (Foildubh) behind. It wasn't one of our happiest days, but he lives to fight another day. "The Grand National is definitely the plan and we hoped that would be a nice confidence-building run, but it didn't quite work out that way. "We are planning to go to the Bobbyjo Chase. That race has become the established Irish trial for the Grand National. "Everyone seems to use it for that purpose and that was the race he ran in before the National last time. "It's perfect timing, the weights are out and people feel that whatever the weights are they have to live with them. "If they run well there, or badly, it doesn't have any impact, so that's where we go."

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013

Hi mate' date=' how much of a betting bank do you need to do this? Just curious.[/quote'] Hi mate, its a pretty loose approach to be honest and I dont have a bank set aside. I staked £532 last year, which seems a lot but the reality is that I would expect to get the majority, if not all of that back from laying off further down the line.

[Aidymac]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013

Hi mate' date=' its a pretty loose approach to be honest and I dont have a bank set aside. I staked £532 last year, which seems a lot but the reality is that I would expect to get the majority, if not all of that back from laying off further down the line.[/quote'] So after you back one, you don't need a big bank balance on betfair, to lay it back? I am a novice at Betfair mate.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 A nice win for Katenko there. He needed to win really to justify Venetia's hype around him being a Gold Cup horse. Fruity O'Rooney stayed on well into 2nd and he is admirably consistent. Likely bumped into a well handicapped horse in Katenko and will probably see his OR go up to about 142ish for that. I've had an interest for the big one at Aintree. BACK - Fruity O'Rooney £4 @ 260.0

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013

So after you back one' date=' you don't need a big bank balance on betfair, to lay it back? I am a novice at Betfair mate.[/quote'] No, you offset it against your winnings. For example, BACK - Red Rum £10 @ 21.0 = £200 profit. Then you LAY Red Rum for £10 @ 11.0 You dont need the funds in your account to lay the 11.0 (£100 liability), it simply reduces your winnings on the original bet (it would reduce from £200 to £100) Hope that makes sense!

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 I've rushed into that Fruity O'Rooney bet a bit. Just foind this quote from October - doh!

Fruity O’Rooney is unlikely to be aimed at the Grand National this season. Gary Moore’s progressive chaser is 50/1 with BetVictor for the Aintree spectacular after gallant efforts at the Cheltenham Festival and in the Scottish National, but his trainer feels Ayr exposed a lack of stamina. Moore said: “I don’t think he truly stayed in the Scottish National, that’s my opinion. So because of that I don’t think he’d be an Aintree horse, I wouldn’t want to tear the guts out of him. “He’s going to run over two-mile-five at the first Cheltenham meeting later this month. “We might aim him at the Hennessy in the first half of the season, that would seem a likely target.”

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 LAY - Katenko £20 @ 46.98 Interest in this one following his win today and i've managed to secure a 70/1ish free bet for Aintree, should he be entered.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013

I've rushed into that Fruity O'Rooney bet a bit. Just foind this quote from October - doh!

Managed to lay off £3.07 of this, may have to write off the rest. I'll see what happens. Little Josh fell in the Argento so still doesnt have that top 3 finish over 3 miles. It looks like the Topham for him after all. Imperial Commader ran a great race, narrowly beaten on the line. He will surely run in the Gold Cup now, so not sure what that means regarding a National entry, as that was a back up if he wasnt up to Gold Cup standard. LAY - Fruity O'Rooney £3.07 @ 260.0 LAY - Little Josh £8 @ 200.0

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 Twiston Davies confirms Imperial Commander will get an entry in the Gold Cup and the Grand National :) Happy to lay off at 70.0 given that I backed at 200.0 LAY- Imperial Commander £5 @ 70.0

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 Based on the fact that Katenko and Imperial Commander both have the Gold Cup as their primary target, I've layed off a bit more today and updated the spreadsheet accordingly. I've layed Join Together for £3 too. Very very close to greening up now, however I've had another bet which is stopping that for now. Wyck Hill £5 @ 104.7 I want an interest in this one due to this last run at Ascot, where he beat Katenko with the pair rated 135 and 136 respectively and well clear of the 3rd Roberto Goldback. With Katenko due to go up to a mark in the late 150's (my guess), it makes Wyck Hill look well treated off his current mark of 140. His stamina past 3 miles is unproven however he has been staying on in his races and has Roselier in his breeding which is a plus. Potentially still improving and shouldnt be twice the price of Katenko.

[Aykay1]

Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013

. Wyck Hill £5 @ 104.7 I want an interest in this one due to this last run at Ascot, where he beat Katenko with the pair rated 135 and 136 respectively and well clear of the 3rd Roberto Goldback. With Katenko due to go up to a mark in the late 150's (my guess), it makes Wyck Hill look well treated off his current mark of 140. His stamina past 3 miles is unproven however he has been staying on in his races and has Roselier in his breeding which is a plus. Potentially still improving and shouldnt be twice the price of Katenko.

Wyck Hill beat Katenko at Ascot from 6lb out of the handicap and Venetia William’s French import has since won impressively at Sandown and Cheltenham, putting himself into the Gold Cup picture. Bridgwater will see how Wyck Hill fares at Kempton before deciding on a Gold Cup challenge, although he feels the Grand National could be the race for him. “I was rubbing my hands watching Katenko, it makes us look a very well-handicapped horse,” said Bridgwater. “I’ve always wanted to run in the Racing Plus Chase next and nothing has changed. “He’ll get an entry for the National tomorrow as well. “The Gold Cup is wide open this year so if we were to win well at Kempton, we’d probably take our chance because Bobs Worth has had his problems and I still think Long Run is the one to beat. “I’ve no doubt in my mind that our horse is better than Katenko. He’s improved bundles since the Ascot race and Kempton has always been the target. “If we’re third or fourth at Kempton, he’ll probably go straight to the National. “If he wins he’d be handicapped out of the races at the Festival, you’re better off trying to get placed in the Gold Cup rather than giving lumps of weight away, like Malcolm Jefferson said about Cape Tribulation.”