Flat season - Too difficult to profit?

[dannn17]

I think it is, I know there are people out there who do but there is just so much you have to take into consideration when you analyse the races. Ground, distance, draw and the race pace are just the few essential things you have to look at, with the jumps it is so much easier to analyse the form as there isn't really much to analyse, just distance and maybe jumping abilities, ground doesn't play as big part as in the flat imo. It could just be this season, it hasn't helped with the rain I suppose, look at Homecoming Queen, bolts up in the 1000 Guineas then look at her two previous runs, just can't explain it really.

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit?

I think it is' date=' I know there are people out there who do but there is just so much you have to take into consideration when you analyse the races. Ground, distance, draw and the race pace are just the few essential things you have to look at, with the jumps it is so much easier to analyse the form as there isn't really much to analyse, just distance and maybe jumping abilities, ground doesn't play as big part as in the flat imo. It could just be this season, it hasn't helped with the rain I suppose, look at Homecoming Queen, bolts up in the 1000 Guineas then look at her two previous runs, just can't explain it really.[/quote'] Not if you do your homework properly. Try and predict which race will set the pace, how the race will be run, where the best ground is/draw advantage, running styles, if they go on the ground, get the trip etc. Most importantly is watching racing, making notes, analysing it and finding potential improvers for their next time out runs. If you can forgive a horse a bad run and find genuine reasons that are beyond simply not being good enough then you're on the right lines. An example would be forgiving a horse a bad run at Epsom or on specific ground such as heavy. You've also got to accept there will be losing runs and getting out the other side of them without denting the profits too much is a real test. I make mental and physical notes on horses to follow and I know others do on here as they often quote posts they have made previously for a horse. Look out for Star Of Rohm and Lisiere tomorrow. :ok Gatewood would have been on most lists after hosing up at Epsom a bit cheekily and it just won again for Buick. You can see the lads on here put a hell of a lot of effort into their research and it pays off. Homecoming Queen caught them napping at Newmarket, bit of a freak result and look at where it finished today, reminds me of how Murtagh nicked the Oaks on Dancing Rain last season. The odds compilers get things wrong, it's our challenge to exploit their errors, take better prices than horses should be and make a profit. Finding overrated or underestimated horses is the key long term.