Dan's Flat Diary

[dannn17]

Just thought I'd start a diary to follow my bets, worked out I'm about even for the flat season so far so a good time to start it. I'm probably different to most punters, I analyse races with an elimination method that I have been using for a while and I personally think it works quite well, I will eliminate Horses which I don't think will win the race whether it be that it won't get the trip, won't like the ground etc. If I am left with two Horses that I can't separate I will back both, the same if left with three Horses, will only back obviously depending on odds/field though. Got quite a few bets lined up tomorrow anyway! 2.05 Doncaster Grey Mirage, 3pts at 5/2 (Betfred) Warfare, 0.75pt E/W at 12/1 (Betfred) Favourite Mawasem won well lto but this is its handicap debut and its only start on softer ground it ran disappointingly so feel it has to be opposed here. I really like the look of Grey Mirage here, won it's last race by 4l on heavy ground at Sandown and will go up 7lb here, won impressively though so confident that he can win off the mark and confident he will like the ground and run a nice race with William Buick on board. Another one I think that is big odds is Warfare, running for the in-form Kevin Ryan. It won last month on soft ground at Ascot over a mile and those are the ground/distance here again today, didn't run well lto over 7f and has gone up 7lb since that win at Ascot but back upto a mile I think a chance has to be taken all things considered and odds of 12/1 are generous. 4.20 Doncaster Expense Claim, 4pts at 7/4 (Betfair) Expense Claim here is up against a Horse in Starboard, the current favourite who isn't 100% sure to make the distance and so I think Expense Claim looks the bet here in this small field. My selection is in great form, completed a hatrick at Newbury last month before finished a close second lto at Goodwood 15 days ago on firm ground over 11f. The step back down in trip to 10f will help here, as will the soft ground which it seems to go very well on. 2.55 Newmarket Pearl Ice, 4pts at 5/2 (Betfair) Mirza, 0.75pt E/W at 12/1 (Betfair) Swiss Franc, 0.5pt E/W at 16/1 (Betfair) Gone with three here in this 16 runner handicap, I think Pearl Ice will be tough to beat but the other two I feel represent decent value as outsiders too. Pearl Ice looks a fantastic prospect and won very well at Ripon just 3 days ago, it has gone up 6lbs for that win but will deal with that mark fine I think and should go very well here. My second selection Mirza is unbeaten in sprints and with Richard Hughes in the saddle seems big at 12/1, has won on soft ground before and off a mark which I think it will win a big race from. Finally my last selection is a Horse called Swiss Franc, Mickael Barzalona will be on board and it should go well on the soft ground back at 6f after a disappointing run lto over 5f at York. 3.30 Newmarket Troopingthecolour, 1pt E/W at 15/2 (Betfair) Frankie Dettori will take this ride and I think it will run a big race, only 3lb higher than on its previous win and it ran well back at 10f lto where it finished second to Media Hype at York. I'm confident it will cope with the soft surface and if so should definitely be in the frame here. Probably going to be tough to beat Trade Commissioner if it handles the soft ground and is in the same sort of form as its previous run but I've seen it time and time again, a Horse that looks like they should handle a surface/trip due to there pedigree and it just not happening so I think the 2/1 favourite has to be opposed here. 4.00 Newmarket High Jinx, 1.25pts E/W at 5/1 (Stan James) Ithoughtitwasover, 0.75pt E/W at 10/1 (Stan James) My first selection here High Jinx goes well on soft ground and is back up in trip now after its 4th in a race at Doncaster back in April, won by War Poet. Will definitely the stay the trip and with Ryan Moore taking the ride here I'm confident it will run a big race. My last selection in this race and of the day is Ithoughtitwasover, on quite a high mark but will handle the soft ground and will improve from its 3rd lto on firm ground at Goodwood last weekend, a race where it was unlucky getting hampered. Will definitely have to improve to win here but at the odds I think it has to be backed and is great each way value. That is all, wish me luck. :)

[Cowan]

Re: Dan's Flat Diary I use pretty much the same method. I have several elimination filters that I've researched which removes about 1/3 - 1/2 of the runners. Then I go through the remainder for Trip, Class, Attitude along with Draw and Pace angles. I'll happily back 3 in a race if that's what I'm left with. Also put on the forecasts and tricasts. Your staking looks like you put more on the short priced horses and a lot less on the higher priced horses. If that works for you then so be it. I don't look at the odds until after I have my selections then I back 1pt on everything regardless of price. It's the big priced winners and the exotics that end up supplying the majority of my profits and it's worked well for me. But I didn't stop in to criticise, just to say I like the sound of your method - and best of luck. :hope