Martin Posted February 6, 2005 Share Posted February 6, 2005 I notice that www.h2hstats.com have ratings for each game and so I'm going to keep track of how those rated over 3.5 get on. Odds will be best available. Bet 1 Barcelona v Athletico Madrid Odds: 1.41 10 pts per selection. Also wondering if anyone can think of an quick way to work out the H2H percentages without going through every single game? Result: Barcelona 0-2 Athletico Madrid -10pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 7, 2005 Author Share Posted February 7, 2005 Re: H2H Ratings System Stunning start! Bet 2 Cesena v Piacenza Odds: 2.40 10 pts Not sure why Piacenza are at such long odds, they seem as good if not better than Cesena :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 7, 2005 Author Share Posted February 7, 2005 Re: H2H Ratings System Cesena 1-0 Piacezna :) + 24 pts Total staked: 20 Total returned: 24 Yield: 20% Winners:1 Losers:1 Strike Rate: 50% Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 104 Profit/Loss: + 4 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juan Posted February 8, 2005 Share Posted February 8, 2005 Re: H2H Ratings System Hi Martin I'm not sure how wise it would be to base picks on that single rating alone. The figure shown in that column on the Calendar page is based only on Recent Home Form versus Recent Away Form. When you go through to the H2H page, you see an additional 2 figures which are All Home Form v All Away Form and All Games v All Games. Quite soon after writing the Rating System, I realised it was no "Holy Grail", and the figures should only really be used in conjuction with other factors. The reason it is still there, is that I find it a very useful indicator, especially on a weekend when there are possibly 200 games or so to search through. The Recent Home Form versus Recent Away Form figure is IMO the most relevant, which is why it is on the Calendar page. Using this along with the Average Odds shown, is a good way to decide which games to concentrate on. The Ratings can also be used to narrow down games where a Lay might be in order, i.e. a short price Away team with a big positive Rating. I am slowly developing a new Rating System, which keeps parts of the Old, but also incorporates elements of the Poisson Distribution formula which is widely touted as a good indicator. It looks promising at the moment, but time will tell. I've summarised the last 3 months below for you, and hopefully you will find it useful in deciding whether to continue this test, or maybe add in some more filters........ Games Rated Above +3.50 November 2004 Games 87 Wins 47 or 54.02% Draws 26 or 29.89% Losses 14 or 16.09% $10 level stake Out 870.00 Back 773.01 Profit -96.99 December 2004 Games 65 Wins 47 or 72.31% Draws 10 or 15.38% Losses 8 or 12.31% $10 level stake Out 650.00 Back 773.00 Profit +123.00 January 2005 Games 70 Wins 40 or 57.14% Draws 21 or 30.00% Losses 9 or 12.86% $10 level stake Out 720.00 Back 693.79 Profit -26.21 Best Wishes Juan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 8, 2005 Author Share Posted February 8, 2005 Re: H2H Ratings System Thats a great help, I'll think about any filters I can add. Incidently, how do you go about calculating ratings in terms of actually doing the calculations quickly? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juan Posted February 9, 2005 Share Posted February 9, 2005 Re: H2H Ratings System Hi Martin it's all program generated..... Juan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 9, 2005 Author Share Posted February 9, 2005 Re: H2H Ratings System Using what program? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juan Posted February 9, 2005 Share Posted February 9, 2005 Re: H2H Ratings System I wrote it myself Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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