Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day

[Stevet1859]

2:00 Epsom: Surely Speightful 1pt win 10/1 Paddy Power Not a lot of form to go on with any of these runners, however Surely Speightful ran pretty well on debut when not beaten far behind Graphic Guest at Ascot. That form has been franked with Graphic Guest winning well next time too at Windsor and looking Royal Ascot bound. Surely Speightful made no mistake herself next time and this speedy sort may be well suited to this track and if she gets away could take some pulling back. 2:40 Epsom: Beaten Up 1pt win 9/2 Boylesports Beaten Up finished behind St Nicholas Abbey at Meydan, however it might be worth giving Beaten Up who was highly progressive as a three year old another chance. Beaten Up acts on a firm surface and in past interviews William Haggas feels his colt could improve again as a four year old. The form of his three runs as a three year old all point to an even better season this time around and back on home soil he could go well. 2:55 Musselburgh: Mayoman 1pt win 9/1 Betfred Mayoman continues to improve since joining David O'Meara. He won with a little in hand last time out at Thirsk and while up in the handicap again, Lee Topliss takes off a handy three pounds. The visor is applied again and this course and distance winner is a sprinter in form who acts on the going. 3:15 Epsom: Judge 'N Jury 1pt win 10/1 William Hill Judge ' N Jury is approaching the veteran stage, yet he has been in a rich vein of form this season and showed he retains plenty of jest at York when holding off Secret Witness a couple of weeks ago. Judge 'N Jury has won off higher marks in the past and he seems to handle downhill courses well. Back in 2010 he was placed in this very race off 99 and his capable claimer takes off five pounds today. Judge 'N Jury is likely to be fast out of the stalls and could get near the stand rails. He is likley to make a bold bid from the front and may get caught by a hold up horse - then again he might not. 3:30 Musselburgh: Silver Blaze 1pt win 14/1 Betfred Silver Blaze could well improve for this step up in distance (as could plenty of the others). Silver Blaze won well at Southwell in April and just lost out here over nine furlongs in May. If he is a little closer to the pace today and does relish the extra trip then Alan Swinbank's charge should run a good race. Over the last five years Alan Swinbank's record with his middle distance horses is far more profitable than either his sprinters, milers, or stayers. 3:40 Haydock: Slade Power 1pt win 7/1 Boylesports Running second on the all weather at Dundalk is not usually eyecatching, however when the winner goes on to be runner up in the Irish 1000 Guineas then the form is worth a second look. Slade Power is lightly raced and there could be more to come. Maybe its unwise to take Slade Power's last run too literally, yet even before that her form would see her in the mix. Interesting that connections should travel over for this as they should know what it takes to be competitive in sprints this side of the Irish Sea. The Derby 4:00 Epsom: Astrology 1pt e/w 14/1 Bet Victor (1/4 123) Astrology was something of a quirky sort as a two year old, however there was nothing wrong with his run in the Dee Stakes when he pulled eleven lengths clear. Its hard to assess what he beat, as none of his rivals that day have run since. Astrology was not stopping at the line and the extra distance here is likely to be in Astrology's favour. Looking at that race at Chester in more detail the third Kingsdesire had previously beated Goldoni who went on to win the Derby Trial at Epson, which is encouraging. It would not be the first time that one of Aidan O'Brien's other runners has run well in a big race and Astrology has plenty of scope for improvement.

[beaker1]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day 4:00 Epsom - Investec Derby (Gr1) In the Investec Derby it usually pays to oppose any runner which was beaten on their most recent start as 16 of the last 19 winners had been successful last time out. That is quite a big negative to overcome so Cavaleiro (3rd), Minimise Risk (5th) and Rugged Cross (3rd) all look to have a big question to answer. However, it isn’t totally impossible as proved firstly by New Approach in 2008 and Workforce two years later. It is rare for a horse to have the sort of versatility that is required to win over a mile in the 2000 Guineas and then step up to a mile and a half and win the Investec Derby only a month later. The iconic Nijinsky managed to do it 1970 and Nashwan followed suit in 1989 before the modern-great Sea The Stars added his name to the list of double winners in 2009. Three in 42 years really does highlight what a difficult achievement it is, so all eyes will be on Camelot tomorrow to see if he can add to his 2000 Guineas victory. Of all of the major Investec Derby trials, York’s Dante Stakes has been the strongest guide in recent years as North Light, Motivator and Authorized all won on the Knavesmire before their Derby victories and Workforce became the first horse to be beaten in the Dante to go on to land the following months Investec Derby. This year’s winner, Bonfire was very impressive in victory at York which is why he currently sits second in the betting. Leopardstown’s Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial and Chester’s Dee Stakes have also proved good pointers in recent seasons but unfortunately the former is not represented this year. However, Astrology who was a runaway eleven length winner at Chester does line up this afternoon. The remaining trials might have produced Derby winners in days gone by but in recent seasons they haven’t been as fruitful. Not since the legendary Shergar annihilated the field in 1981 has the Chester Vase winner gone on to victory in the Derby although in fairness to the race, recent winners Millenary, Hattan, Papal Bull, Soldier Of Fortune and Golden Sword have gone on to prove themselves more than useful horses. So this year’s winner Mickdaam would appear to have something to prove along with the horse that finished 5th at Chester Minimise Risk. Lingfield is similar to Epsom in that both are sharp, left handed tracks featuring an uphill climb followed by a sweeping downhill turn and a long run in, so it is surprising that their Derby Trial hasn’t had more of an influence recently. Since 1983, Teenoso, Slip Anchor, Kahyasi and High-Rise all won at Lingfield en-route to Derby success but since then all of the winners to have run in the Investec Derby have been beaten. Main Sequence who won this year’s contest, with Cavaleiro back in 3rd, bid to get the race back amongst the winners. With Sir Michael Stoute without a runner this year, the honour of leading trainer in the race goes to Aidan O’Brien who won here in 2001 and 2002 with Galileo and High Chaparral and has also seen seven of his runners finish in the frame. In fact, his horses finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th behind Sea The Stars in 2009. O’Brien, who has a replica Tattenham Corner gallop at his Ballydoyle training centre, would appear to hold all of the aces for this year’s race in the shape of Astrology and Camelot. Over the last ten years the average winning starting price is a shade over 4/1 confirming that shock results in the Investec Derby are very rare. Therefore, certainly for win purposes, Camelot, Bonfire, Astrology and Main Sequence would appear to be the main protagonists. However, it is interesting to note that the last horse to win the Investec Derby at odds-on was Shergar, who stormed to a record ten length victory at 10-11 in 1981. Since then, the three horses to have started odds-on favourites for the Investec Derby – El Gran Senor (8-11, 1984), Tenby (4-5, 1993) and Entrepreneur (4-6, 1997) – were all beaten. Finally, don’t be put off backing an outsider each-way as over the past decade we have seen placed horses return a starting price ranging from 20-1 to 100-1. Although runners drawn low have a slight disadvantage over the early part of the Investec Derby course, as long as they can maintain their position, that disadvantage is soon wiped out as they approach Tattenham Corner. Many a Derby has been won or lost on that part of the course. With nine runners this year, it is unlikely that there will any hard-luck stories so it is probably best not to rely too heavily on where your selection is drawn. Apart from the 2010 winner Workforce, all of the recent Investec Derby winners with an official rating were rated 113 or higher and it could be argued that those without a rating had run to something like that mark. If we are to use that figure as a benchmark this year only Camelot (121), Bonfire (119), and Astrology (113) would appear to have the quality to win. Shortlist Camelot Bonfire (Thought Worthy) Conclusion Whichever way you look at it CAMELOT looks to have very strong credentials. Being especially picky one could argue that the record of 2000 Guineas winners isn’t great in the Investec Derby but just like Sea The Stars, who did the Classic double in 2009, O’Brien’s colt won at Newmarket despite the one mile trip rather than because of it. His racing style and pedigree both suggest that he will be better suited to a mile and a half. You could also argue that the last three odds-on favourites have all been beaten but with only 9 runners going to post can this be considered a ‘normal’ Derby. I think it will be a major upset if he is beaten. Bonfire, the impressive winner of the Dante Stakes, looks to be his chief rival and he too has ticks in the all of the right boxes, in fact he is arguably stronger than Camelot. I like this horse a lot and even included him in my Fifty for the Flat service this year so I can see him serving it up to the hot-pot favourite and he must be the one that O’Brien fears the most. Main Sequence and Astrology both deserve to be on the shortlist but I am giving the final place to Thought Worthy as I am almost certain that he will improve again for the step up in trip. He was only caught very late on by Imperial Monarch in the Sandown Classic Trial over a trip and on ground that was less than ideal, yet he was double the price prior to the O’Brien horse’s defection. He followed that with a hard-fought victory over Noble Mission and Rugged Cross in the Fairway Stakes when again he looked to be crying out for a mile and a half. He may well prove a St Leger horse in the long term and he did look more attractive at the 25/1 available earlier in the week but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him make the frame.