Mister Logical Posted February 6, 2005 Share Posted February 6, 2005 The obvious answer is to profit from it consistently once its found. But just how complicated do we make our searches in attempts to find the holy system grail? Well i,m convinced that we make our systems to complicated, believing that any system must be built that way, otherwise it wouldnt be a system. The ultimate is to find a winner consistantly from our systems. So lets put a bit of logical thought into it and stick with something we know WILL sooner or later win and when it does we will be their cheering it home, as it turns any previous losses incurred waiting for it to win, into plus figures for us. But having said that, there will still be ample people not happy, why? because even tho were in profit, we waited a while for it to happen. Doesnt matter to the sensible punter, (his the one happy to guarantee a profit with minimal bets as opposed to the other sort who wouldnt know a winning way unless it could be done every day!) Sounds simple enough, really at the end of the day its about increasing your stake until whatever your betting on actually wins for you. And without doubt your system bet WILL win, just make sure youve done the sums right and are finally drawing those guaranteed profits, before starting it all over again... So what bet can we do then which is guaranteed to oblige, even if its a fair way down the line? Personally i like to select something which will always be decent odds, decent enough so as fortunes dont have to be wagered until success kicks in. What that selection is could be anything you choose, as long as you know it wins at same stage and does throughout the time spell your putting your faith into it. One such guaranteed winner is to wait until a live football match is on the box (any match, italian, spanish english etc, the abundance of live games always ensures you wont wait that long to be in profit)and place a bet on the 1st goal being scored between 81-90 minutes, always around the 25-1 mark, and believe me do it from match number1 and keep doing it adjusting your stake as you go, and its a winner! Just to add that the above bet DOES oblige many times every season year after year, and ALWAYS will continue to oblige on many different occasions throughout the year, EVERY year going back to the start of multiple live coverage this has happened around 1 in 8 live games. An interesting variation is to include backing 0-0 with it and once goaless after 80 mins your laughing. Systems should be simple not complicated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr onemore Posted February 6, 2005 Share Posted February 6, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? Sounds simple enough, really at the end of the day its about increasing your stake until whatever your betting on actually wins for you. And without doubt your system bet WILL win, just make sure youve done the sums right and are finally drawing those guaranteed profits, before starting it all over again... Simply not true. One such guaranteed winner is to wait until a live football match is on the box (any match, italian, spanish english etc, the abundance of live games always ensures you wont wait that long to be in profit)and place a bet on the 1st goal being scored between 81-90 minutes, always around the 25-1 mark, and believe me do it from match number1 and keep doing it adjusting your stake as you go, and its a winner! Looking at all Premiership games between August 2000 and Dec 2004 I found that Matches where first goal was in period 81-90mins 43 Total matches played 1720 Actual odds 39-1 The 25-1 you get is poor value - in other words in the long run you are throwing your money away. Being a 'live' game will not effect this stat. I suspect other european games are similar - if not, why don't you provide some hard data? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forever_Ever_Delayed Posted February 6, 2005 Share Posted February 6, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? Not all systems are complicated, Bruise Pristeen has one on here which is just betting on four favourites and he's doing pretty well looking at his results Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted February 6, 2005 Share Posted February 6, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? Nice reply Mr Onemore, I would definitely like to see some evidence of this occurring in 1 in 8 live games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted February 6, 2005 Share Posted February 6, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? First of all welcome to the board Mister Logical.:D I am always open to new ideas and suggestions, even if I don't entirely agree with raising stakes after a losing bet. However, with your idea, as the minimum odds seeming to be 25-1 you'd only have to start raising after 24 losses. Instead of worrying about providing past statistics to prove a point to others in this section, why not start a paper-trail using this method, i.e without putting down any real money. Then all doubters can see for themselves how well your system may or may not work. You were very unlucky in the Chelsea v Man City game with an injury-time world-class save defying the first goal. However, as you say your 0-0 cover bet would have sufficed. Good luck with this. Danny Cash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIGWAFC Posted February 10, 2005 Share Posted February 10, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? Sorry am I missing something here or is this just THE answer? Applying the same principal to draws surely will gurantee a return? Using Mr Logicals logical theory every team draws sooner or later, and the minimum odds for a draw is always over 2/1. So why not simply select a team to draw and continue to do so every week until the team does draw, doubling your stake each week until it comes in. When the team does draw you will instantly be in profit. You can then take your winnings and simply start again. Obviously the longer the period before the team draws the larger the stake you need to put on, but then the greater the return when the draw does come in. The only problem I can foresee is that you select a team that doesnt draw for a number of weeks and you cant afford the next stake. Assuming you start with £1 then if the draw comes in at week 10 then youll have outlayed £1,023 but will get a return of £1,536 if the odds were 2/1 (generally theyre a bit better). So Ill now go and do a bit of research and find out how long a team has gone without drawing - and also see how much I can outlay before I go bankrupt! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipstar Posted February 10, 2005 Share Posted February 10, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? I can sense Joes blood boiling as I type ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juan Posted February 10, 2005 Share Posted February 10, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? Examples of Teams with current Drawless Streaks; Eng Pr Birmingham 11 Eng D1 Port Vale 15 Eng D2 Kiddrminster 20 Ger B1 Wolfsburg 20 If you were chasing a Kidderminster draw and started with a €1 stake, you would now have laid out €1,048,575 and would be doubling that liability on their next game.........Good Luck ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIGWAFC Posted February 10, 2005 Share Posted February 10, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? Errrrrr, am I missing something.... Joe? Havent stepped on anyones shoes have I? Incidentally, have just applied the theory to Chelsea, and the results are as follows; largest bet placed; £256 largets total accumulated stake ; £511 (9 weeks before drawing) number of draws (ie wins) = 5 total profit returned = £410 Only Liverpool have drawn less than Chelsea in the league, and their current form is 9 games since a draw. No other team has gone 9 games without drawing. Applying it to West Brom who have drawn the most; largest bet placed; £32 largets total accumulated stake ; £64 (6 weeks before drawing) number of draws (ie wins) = 11 total profit returned = £66 So obviously as long as your prepared and have the funds to continue doubling the stake your better going for teams that dont draw often. Though if you dont have a large pot to 'risk' you can always go for those that draw often as even though the return is smaller it is still a return. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIGWAFC Posted February 10, 2005 Share Posted February 10, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? Cheers Juan - using reverse logic then, Kiddie surely cant go another 20 games without drawing? Worth backing the draw starting from now perhaps? ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted February 10, 2005 Share Posted February 10, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? You do not need to double the stakes for odds 3+ . A 50% increase will be sufficient, and if the odds are around average of 3.2 your overall yield on the total stakes bet will not be less than 7%. You can also apply stop loss technique. If you are doing say 20 teams, profits from these will cover the loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juan Posted February 10, 2005 Share Posted February 10, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? Hi NIGWAFC I think the Joe reference was more to do with your staking plan than anything else, although a lot of people will tell you that just because something hasn't happened for a certain amount of time, that the probability of it happening in the near future is NOT reduced any. It is also worth noting that the bookies do not reflect those drawless streaks in the Odds offered for a draw ... the price for Kiddy to draw against Chester this weekend are still 3.25, pretty much the same as when their drawless streak began. If the Draw Odds went up proportionally, then you might have a chance. I did a lot of work on this a few seasons ago, doing a limited chase on teams that had not drawn for a certain number of games. It was all theoretical, but I could never get it to work, about the best I could do was starting a Chase when the team had not drawn for 11 games, and chasing for 3 games blindly. Even this did not guarantee a return. I do not completely reject this as a system, but as with most things, the fact a team has not drawn for a number of games, is just another factor to take into account when looking at a game. By the way, there was little to suggest that Kidderminster would go on the streak as far as I can tell. They had drawn 3 from 11 games - the previous few seasons they had drawn 28%, 20%, 33% & 28% of games....... and Yes, maybe they will draw against Chester this weekend, 23rd versus 19th, game priced closely, etc, etc, BUT if they don't, then it's no reason to think they have more chance of drawing when they are away at Shrewsbury on the 19th (although, again - a bit of a derby game? and both fairly closely matched) I do know some guys who are doing fairly well chasing draws in Ice Hockey games, but they are selective, and the odds are better anyway. Best Wishes Juan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 10, 2005 Share Posted February 10, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? I wish Id been backing Inter to draw this season.:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted February 10, 2005 Share Posted February 10, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? I think it's generally accepted that this staking plan does not work in isolation (NIG I think joe may have had this discussion on here before). Basically, you only make very modest gains when you win, and eventually you will hit a long losing streak that wipes your bank out. Even if you have an infinite bank, you will get to a stage where your bets are to large and bookies will not accept them. The reason why this staking plan looks attractive is because it may well make you money in the short/medium term, but it only needs to spiral out of control once and then you're broke. You could even end up on the Ocean Finance advert ..."I aquired some CCJs....etc." I've always bet by the principle that if the single isn't good value, then no accumulator or staking plan will make it profitable. I think this is statistically correct, but no doubt someone will correct me if I'm wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brookes Posted February 10, 2005 Share Posted February 10, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? Is it true that the promoted team tend to draw more often than others in the E.P.L. ? This season Palace have drawn 7 from 26 This season Norwich have drawn 11 from 26 This season West Brom have drawn 11 from 26 This is 29 from 78 matche at an average of 3.2 would have returned 92.8. This could be a basis for a system , could be worth considering next season. Do these promoted sides draw more at the start of the season ? Is this a trend or does it happen regularly? Do these teams draw moore often at home ? I will look into this when I have more time in the next week. Any opinions and improvements would be appreciated. Sorry mods if this is in the wrong thread. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIGWAFC Posted February 11, 2005 Share Posted February 11, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? Brookes - was thinking the same thing myself. Ive a spreadsheet that immediately calculates the returns for any team - give me a shout if you want it - and the results for Palace, Norwich, and West Brom are as follows using the £1 start system (and a price of 3.2); Palace; largest bet placed; £32 largets total accumulated stake ; £64 (6 weeks before drawing) number of draws (ie wins) = 7 total profit returned = £97 Norwich; largest bet placed; £32 largets total accumulated stake ; £64 (6 weeks before drawing) number of draws (ie wins) = 7 total profit returned = £73.40 West Brom largest bet placed; £32 largets total accumulated stake ; £64 (6 weeks before drawing) number of draws (ie wins) = 11 total profit returned = £77 So backing all 3 returns a profit of £247.40 to date. Think selecting teams that are more prone to draw, even though they return smaller returns, is the best method to take. As emerson says, a long losing streak can easily bankrupt you! Ill have a look at applying the same system to promoted teams over the past few seasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted February 11, 2005 Share Posted February 11, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? I've posted stuff about this before, and I know I should let it lie but I can't! I still feel there is something in this. Maybe picking the teams that draw more often is the way to go. Like Osesame says, I also think you need to have about 20 chases on the go at the same time so that you are picking up small returns along the way when one team goes on a long run without a draw (it will happen). I've also got some data on it for the 3 Premier seasons 01/02, 02/03 & 03/04 if anyone is interested. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIGWAFC Posted February 11, 2005 Share Posted February 11, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? Okay Ive gone back to 2002 and the results are somewhat concerning :eek First heres 2002; Man City; largest bet placed; £1,024 largets total accumulated stake ; £2,047 (11 weeks before drawing) number of draws (ie wins) = 6 total profit returned = £1,341.60 West Brom; largest bet placed; £1,024 largets total accumulated stake ; £2,047 (11 weeks before drawing) number of draws (ie wins) = 6 total profit returned = £1,892.00 Bmngham; largest bet placed; £8,192.00 largets total accumulated stake ; £26,214.40 (14 weeks before drawing) number of draws (ie wins) = 9 total profit returned = £9,893.40 So as you see, although it returns a nice hefty profit of £13,127, you would have needed a pot of over £26,000 to have made it work. Somehow I dont think that if you had that pot youd be a visitor on this board (or that youd even bother going to the bookies!) Secondly I wont bother with the other seasons as 2002 has made it quite apparent what Emerson was saying earlier :\ nice thought though - right time for :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIGWAFC Posted February 11, 2005 Share Posted February 11, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? Cheers for the link Hodgey - as someone said we aint the first and wont be the last! It does appear very tempting - only thing worth considering is are there any good draw prediction systems out there, ie instead of backing the same team, back a different match based on the draw prediction? Now I really must go for a :beer as I think that defeats the whole object of the system! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted February 11, 2005 Share Posted February 11, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? Scary stuff on 2002 promoted teams. My thoughts before the start of the season was to pick the teams who were expected to finish mid-table. I have a note of all the title odds pre-season. The Premiership is a bit hazy cos apart from 5 teams all the odds were over 150/1. But for the lower leagues it works out well. Do you have data for the lower leagues too? Using your spreadsheet I wonder if you could calculate the returns for: Tottenham, Charlton & Fulham. Alternatively, if you could let me have a look at your sheet, I'd be happy to do it. (I'll send you my e-mail in case) Cheers, Hodgey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted February 11, 2005 Share Posted February 11, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? - right time for :beer NIG the pitfalls of this system may be magnified greatly if you start supping at 11:10 on a Friday morning!:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brookes Posted February 11, 2005 Share Posted February 11, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? Thanks NIGWAFC for your informed opinion , sorry Hodge for re-inventing your wheel BUT my version was going to be much simpler [so that I could follow it ]. I was consider placing a fixed stake each week of 1 pt per team through the whole season.6 games would have double stake when they play each other. This would result in 3 x 38 pts for a whole season = 114 pt. I hope my explaination is clear .Would a trial run from now to the end of the season be worthwhile ? I have considered doing a trixie if all three are playing. Thanks for all your opinions , I apologies for diversing off . Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr onemore Posted February 12, 2005 Share Posted February 12, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? Can't believe this thread is still alive?? Mister Logical? - where are you?...:( Have to say that I don't see any basis on this thread for selecting a few teams to follow for the entire season and expecting higher than average drawn matches - very, very sceptical...I would suggest avoiding and saving your time and money here. Good analysis from NIGWAFC - I think you now realise the pitfalls of a betting strategy that involves ever increasing stakes waiting for the supposed guaranteed winner coming along - leave it well alone, very dangerous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thephysician Posted February 12, 2005 Share Posted February 12, 2005 Re: Why Exactly Do We Hunt For System,s or Betting Strategy,s? Okay Ive gone back to 2002 and the results are somewhat concerning :eek First heres 2002; Man City; largest bet placed; £1,024 largets total accumulated stake ; £2,047 (11 weeks before drawing) number of draws (ie wins) = 6 total profit returned = £1,341.60 West Brom; largest bet placed; £1,024 largets total accumulated stake ; £2,047 (11 weeks before drawing) number of draws (ie wins) = 6 total profit returned = £1,892.00 Bmngham; largest bet placed; £8,192.00 largets total accumulated stake ; £26,214.40 (14 weeks before drawing) number of draws (ie wins) = 9 total profit returned = £9,893.40 Is this doubling your stake each week until you 'win' then going back to zero? The odds being 2.5 (3/2)? Or are you doing the classic Martingale where you make each future bet enough so that if you win you get all your previous stakes plus one unit back? If it's the latter, 9 wins should return just 9 pounds. Not just under 10 grand. The problem with any increasing stakes on a loss system is that you end betting huge amounts for a profit of 1 unit. 500 units for 1 unit gain on a 2-1 shot? That's not a system or betting strategy, it's a staking plan, and no staking plan on it's own can beat the house (or bookies edge) over the long term. Brett Morton's 'Winning Roulette' does a very good analysis of lots of staking plans (though I don't agree with his theory that you can beat Roulette in the long term). That said, if you can find an edge, staking plans can help. Just not Mr Martingale's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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