Webbo's Premier League Value Selections

[Webbo_BB]

Hi all, I started a thread here: http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/129427-Unbelievable-Premier-League-Profits yesterday about these selections and I have posted a link to the selections so far there and below are this weeks selections. My percentages for the Machester Derby happened to be exactly the same as the market had them so no bet on that one. Here is a link again to the results so far: http://www.betfairbanter.co.uk/PremierLeagueBets.xlsx and the monthly results since I started so far are: [TABLE=width: 398]

[TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 161, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]Monthly Totals [/TD] [TD=class: xl67, width: 109, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=class: xl67, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=class: xl68, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl69, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

Month

[/TD] [TD=class: xl69, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

Units staked

[/TD] [TD=class: xl69, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

P/L

[/TD] [TD=class: xl70, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

ROI

[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl69, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

January

[/TD] [TD=class: xl71, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

240

[/TD] [TD=class: xl72, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

81.64

[/TD] [TD=class: xl70, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

34.01%

[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl69, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

February

[/TD] [TD=class: xl71, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

320

[/TD] [TD=class: xl72, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

-26.42

[/TD] [TD=class: xl70, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

-8.25%

[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl69, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

March

[/TD] [TD=class: xl71, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

450

[/TD] [TD=class: xl72, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

73.90

[/TD] [TD=class: xl70, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

16.42%

[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl69, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

April

[/TD] [TD=class: xl71, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

350

[/TD] [TD=class: xl72, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

244.30

[/TD] [TD=class: xl70, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

69.80%

[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl69, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

May

[/TD] [TD=class: xl71, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

[/TD] [TD=class: xl72, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

[/TD] [TD=class: xl70, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl69, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

TOTAL

[/TD] [TD=class: xl71, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

1360

[/TD] [TD=class: xl72, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

373.42

[/TD] [TD=class: xl70, bgcolor: #f2f2f2]

27.46%

[/TD] [/TR]

[/TABLE] All I do is input the % chances I think the 3 outcomes have, input the odds I have found and the sheet tells me which outcome differs the most. It does this using a kelly calculation and the sheet shows results for kelly stakes too but level stake are out performing them currently. It's actually great fun to do because it means you bet on things you normally wouldn't, that have value and that's how you can profit. Let's hope I can keep in profit! Webbo

[Grex]

Re: Webbos Premier League Value Selections Thanks for the link to your blog.... unfortunately, I simply get a message saying "sorry, the page you were looking for in this blog does not exist". :unsure Are you betting 10 unit level stakes, i.e. for this year, is your total number of bets 136 ? Good luck, anyway :ok

[Webbo_BB]

Re: Webbos Premier League Value Selections Hi Grex, really sorry about the link... if you've ever tried hosting a google blog on a custom domain then you'll feel my pain. Luckily I think I finally have it sorted now and it's now located here: http://www.betfairbanter.co.uk/PremierLeagueBets.xlsx I am indeed using level stakes of 10 units and have had 136 bets so far. Thanks for wishing me luck!

[Webbo_BB]

Re: Webbos Premier League Value Selections Not the best week to demonstrate this. I said there would be more draws and managed to pick out 2 of them! Two 4-4s in consecutive weeks is pretty incredible! [TABLE=width: 627]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Selection[/TD] [TD]Best Odds[/TD] [TD]Result[/TD] [TD]Profit/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]Fulham[/TD] [TD]Draw[/TD] [TD]3.6[/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]-10.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Stoke[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]1.91[/TD] [TD]Draw[/TD] [TD]-10.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD]Bolton[/TD] [TD]Draw[/TD] [TD]3.6[/TD] [TD]Draw[/TD] [TD]26.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Swansea[/TD] [TD]Wolves[/TD] [TD]Draw[/TD] [TD]4.3[/TD] [TD]Draw[/TD] [TD]33.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]West Brom[/TD] [TD]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD]West Brom[/TD] [TD]2.2[/TD] [TD]Draw[/TD] [TD]-10.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wigan[/TD] [TD]Newcastle[/TD] [TD]Newcastle[/TD] [TD]2.6[/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]-10.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Norwich[/TD] [TD]Liverpool[/TD] [TD]Norwich[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]-10.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chelsea[/TD] [TD]QPR[/TD] [TD]Draw[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]-10.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Tottenham[/TD] [TD]Blackburn[/TD] [TD]Blackburn[/TD] [TD]9.5[/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]-10.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Man City[/TD] [TD]Man Utd[/TD] [TD]NONE[/TD] [TD]N/A[/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]0.00[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Even with only 2 results going my way out of 9 the loss was only 11 units (-12.22% ROI) and so I'm sure you can see the potential in these. The overall ROI has dropped to 24.65% and Profit is 362.42 units. Here are my selections for this evening: [TABLE=width: 443] [TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Selection[/TD] [TD]Best Odds[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Liverpool[/TD] [TD]Fulham[/TD] [TD]Fulham[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Stoke[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]2.62[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Webbo_BB]

Re: Webbos Premier League Value Selections A nice win on Fulham last night and close to landing Everton too! I'm back up to 27.38% ROI for the season now which equates to 402.42 units profit and for this thread's purpose up 39 units from 110 units staked (10 per match) which is an ROI of 35.45%. [TABLE=width: 531]

[TR] [TD]Home [/TD] [TD]Away [/TD] [TD]Selection [/TD] [TD]Best Odds [/TD] [TD]Profit/Loss [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Liverpool [/TD] [TD]Fulham [/TD] [TD]Fulham [/TD] [TD]6 [/TD] [TD]50.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Stoke [/TD] [TD]Everton [/TD] [TD]Everton [/TD] [TD]2.62 [/TD] [TD]-10.00 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Here are my selections for this evening: [TABLE=width: 412] [TR] [TD]Home [/TD] [TD]Away [/TD] [TD]Selection [/TD] [TD]Best Odds [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chelsea [/TD] [TD]Newcastle [/TD] [TD]Draw [/TD] [TD]4.6 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bolton [/TD] [TD]Tottenham [/TD] [TD]Tottenham [/TD] [TD]1.95 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Webbo_BB]

Re: Webbos Premier League Value Selections Btw can anyone tell me how I can add a link to my blog in my signature please? I just tried but it doens't seem to let me... Do I need a certain amount of posts before I can do this or something? Thanks in advance!

[Webbo_BB]

Re: Webbos Premier League Value Selections Damn! I just re-read the rules on this forum and realised you cannot edit posts containing picks. It was the perfectionist in me as I had a spelling mistake! The missing apostrophe in the thread title also bothers me too :S Anyway I'm reposting tonight's selections again unedited! [TABLE=class: cms_table]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Selection[/TD] [TD]Best odds[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chelsea[/TD] [TD]Newcastle[/TD] [TD]Draw[/TD] [TD]4.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bolton[/TD] [TD]Tottenham[/TD] [TD]Tottenham[/TD] [TD]1.95[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[aderuk]

Re: Webbos Premier League Value Selections Firstly, good luck with system.Regarding links in your signature I believe you have to PM one of the admin guys.

[Webbo_BB]

Re: Webbos Premier League Value Selections Thanks aderuk! I did email Paul Ross and he said it was fine so if one of the admin/moderators comes across this thread andcan help then that would be great. Many thanks.

[froment]

Re: Webbos Premier League Value Selections

The missing apostrophe in the thread title also bothers me too :S

It's a shame, one simple apostrophe to cause botherring - no way we can allow that here! ;) On a serious note, I think you could edit it yourself: edit first post of the thread, click "Go Advanced", change title of that post, and it changes title of the thread! Or at least they say so, I haven't tried that way. Signature sorted, too. Good luck with system! :ok

[Webbo_BB]

Re: Webbos Premier League Value Selections Haha! Thanks very much for sorting both of those Froment! I can sleep easy now so much appreciated :) Managed to get another winner last night in Spurs but this was offset by the Newcastle win. I'm a bit gutted about this tbh because I toyed over making Newcastle 20% likely which would have changed my bet to them but my first thoughts are usaully the best so i decided to stick with the 15% I originally allocated. It's not that the draw was a bad bet and I still think 4.6 was valu as it traded lower than this for 90% of the match but 15% was probably a little low on Newcastle. It's easy to say in hindsight and I haven't regretted any of my percentages until now. At least I can say I had it more accurate than the market again and this is how I'm managing to profit! [TABLE=width: 561]

[TR] [TD]Home [/TD] [TD]Away [/TD] [TD]Selection [/TD] [TD]Best Odds [/TD] [TD]Profit/Loss [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chelsea [/TD] [TD]Newcastle [/TD] [TD]Draw [/TD] [TD]4.6 [/TD] [TD]-10.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bolton [/TD] [TD]Tottenham [/TD] [TD]Tottenham [/TD] [TD]1.95 [/TD] [TD]9.50 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] So a 0.5 loss for last night making it 38.5 from 130 units staked for the thread (29.61% ROI) and 401.92 units (26.97% ROI) for the season. I will upload the latest spreadsheet sometime today.

[Webbo_BB]

Re: Webbos Premier League Value Selections The spreadsheet is updated now: http://www.betfairbanter.co.uk/PremierLeagueBets.xlsx and here are this weekends picks! [TABLE=width: 443]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Selection[/TD] [TD]Best Odds[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]Norwich[/TD] [TD]Norwich[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Newcastle[/TD] [TD]Man City[/TD] [TD]Newcastle[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD]Tottenham[/TD] [TD]Draw[/TD] [TD]3.8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bolton[/TD] [TD]West Brom[/TD] [TD]West Brom[/TD] [TD]3.8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wolves[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]1.75[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]QPR[/TD] [TD]Stoke[/TD] [TD]Stoke[/TD] [TD]4.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Fulham[/TD] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD]Draw[/TD] [TD]3.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Man Utd[/TD] [TD]Swansea[/TD] [TD]Swansea[/TD] [TD]19[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Blackburn[/TD] [TD]Wigan[/TD] [TD]Wigan[/TD] [TD]2.9[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Webbo_BB]

Re: Webbos Premier League Value Selections A small loss of 23 units this weekend when it all looked so promising with Norwich 2-1 up at half time! Mangaed to get the draw at Villa v Spurs and the Wigan win last night but a lack of shocks and too many draws meant it was a pretty uneventful one really but I looked back at my selections and I'm happy with all of them and feel I had the value. Long term this will pay divedends as it has been doing. [TABLE=width: 544]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Selection[/TD] [TD]Best Odds[/TD] [TD]Result[/TD] [TD]Profit/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]Norwich[/TD] [TD]Norwich[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]Draw[/TD] [TD]-10.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Newcastle[/TD] [TD]Man City[/TD] [TD]Newcastle[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]-10.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD]Tottenham[/TD] [TD]Draw[/TD] [TD]3.8[/TD] [TD]Draw[/TD] [TD]28.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bolton[/TD] [TD]West Brom[/TD] [TD]West Brom[/TD] [TD]3.8[/TD] [TD]Draw[/TD] [TD]-10.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wolves[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]1.75[/TD] [TD]Draw[/TD] [TD]-10.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]QPR[/TD] [TD]Stoke[/TD] [TD]Stoke[/TD] [TD]4.5[/TD] [TD]Draw[/TD] [TD]-10.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Fulham[/TD] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD]Draw[/TD] [TD]3.6[/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]-10.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Man Utd[/TD] [TD]Swansea[/TD] [TD]Swansea[/TD] [TD]19[/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]-10.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Blackburn[/TD] [TD]Wigan[/TD] [TD]Wigan[/TD] [TD]2.9[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]19.00[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] So back down to 15.5 units from 220 units staked since this thread opened and an ROI of 7.05%. The overall ROI for this season is 23.98%. Here's my selection for this evening: [TABLE=width: 360] [TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Selection[/TD] [TD]Best Odds[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Liverpool[/TD] [TD]Chelsea[/TD] [TD]Chelsea[/TD] [TD]3.6[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[eddie4]

Re: Webbo's Premier League Value Selections Love the blog added to my favs now.

[Webbo_BB]

Re: Webbo's Premier League Value Selections

Love the blog added to my favs now.

Thanks Eddie, glad you like! Unfortunately a loss last night. The first goal can be very important in football and if Ivanovic had scored rather than hit the post last night could have been very different. A mixture of luck and sloppy play from Chelsea gave Liverpool the points but they weren't as great as many made out. In hindsight perhaps I could have given Liverpool more of an advantage as the home side (had it at 35% each) but 2.12 would always be too short for me here. [TABLE=class: cms_table] [TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Selection[/TD] [TD]Best Odds[/TD] [TD]Result[/TD] [TD]Profit/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Liverpool[/TD] [TD]Chelsea[/TD] [TD]Chelsea[/TD] [TD]3.6[/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]-10.00[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] ROI now 5.5 from 230 staked for the thread which is now 2.4% ROI. Not great but this is a pretty poor run for me so to still be in profit is pretty damn good! 23.20% For the season now with only one round left :( DOn't worry, I will probably open a new thread and do this for the Euros though! :)

[Webbo_BB]

Re: Webbo's Premier League Value Selections Final Prem Selections for the season then. Hopefully finish on a high and keep the thread in profit and the total for the season above 20% ROI. Thanks for following and good luck with all your pre bets today, it should be exciting! :loon [TABLE=width: 360]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Selection[/TD] [TD]Best Odds[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chelsea[/TD] [TD]Blackburn[/TD] [TD]Blackburn[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]Newcastle[/TD] [TD]Newcastle[/TD] [TD]3.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Man City[/TD] [TD]QPR[/TD] [TD]Draw[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Norwich[/TD] [TD]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD]Draw[/TD] [TD]3.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Stoke[/TD] [TD]Bolton[/TD] [TD]Stoke[/TD] [TD]2.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD]Man Utd[/TD] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD]7.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Swansea[/TD] [TD]Liverpool[/TD] [TD]Liverpool[/TD] [TD]2.15[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Tottenham[/TD] [TD]Fulham[/TD] [TD]Fulham[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]West Brom[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]1.7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wigan[/TD] [TD]Wolves[/TD] [TD]Wigan[/TD] [TD]1.62[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]