Webbo_BB Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Hi there, Since the start of January I have been pricing up Premier League matches in the hope to make a decent 5%+ on the odds available... 136 games later I have managed an incredible profit of 27.46%! Whilst I'm incredibly pleased I want to try and understand how such a big return by betting on pretty much every game (All but 10 where I had the odds exactly as the market) has been possible in such a popular market where long term the odds are considered pretty damn accurate and are usually slightly overround? I don't think it's luck although I guess it's possible but I think 136 matches is a decent sample size? I don't expect these results to continue but obviously I'm hopeful! I just wondered if anyone knows of any unusual activity in the prem in the second half of this season that has made these profits possible? More underdogs winning or less draws than usual maybe? Also, I'm currently using 2% of my bankroll for these and so far this has been ok but I wondered whether this is too big for value betting on so many selections like this? I'm hoping to recalculate the 2% at some point and I'm concerned a losing streak will cost me big. I won't post the selections on here because I don't want to be banned for spam but they are on the internet and so some of you may have seen them about already. Thanks in advance for your advice Webbo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 Re: Unbelievable Premier League Profits Spam or Corned Beef ,It"s all much the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 Re: Unbelievable Premier League Profits I won't post the selections on here because I don't want to be banned for spam but they are on the internet and so some of you may have seen them about already. Hi, Webbo, nice to see you again on Punters Lounge! :welcome However, I'm afraid the way you started this thread is exactly spamming, and you risk banning this way more than if you just posted selections; as you can see from Methuselah's post, people here are sensitive to self-proclamations before they see the tips themselves - we see a lot of trolls coming here and boosting their past performance. Accidentally, as regular visitor of your blog and ex-moderator in your ex-forum (and I believe it's good that you closed forum - there was not a lot of activity, and that leaves you more time for your blog, which is one of the better I read), I can confirm your statements, your Premier League predictions were indeed profitable; I don't know to what extent, I didn't take account of exact profit/loss and strike rate, but I do know that there have been some good tips, along with that nice and useful spreadsheets and enjoyable blog posts. Though, it's not enough here - you're newcomer in this forum, and you need to start from zero. So, if you want to join this community, I strongly encourage you to post your picks, rather than just claim good profits - that's way to spamming, "yes, I have profitable picks, but I won't post them here, you can find it on internet!"... If you're willing to listen to my advice, there are three ways you can do that: 1. If you want to keep all your picks in one place, and want to share details of selection process of your picks, then Systems and Strategy forum is correct place; 2. If you want to keep all your picks in one place, but don't want to disclose any details about your strategy, then Glory Hunters forum is the place for you - you just post your picks without any reasoning. In both cases, you need to take account of your profit/loss, strike rate, etc, and I'd advise you to choose some less bombastic title... ;) 3. There is English Premier League forum, and separate thread for each match; if you want, you can post your picks there, and reasoning is required, but you don't need to keep profit/loss. In all 3 cases, you must avoid aftereventing - all picks must be posted before kick-off; and I'd recommend you to read Systems & Strategy Forum rules and Glory Hunters Forum rules, to get to grips with other details how this forum operates. Additionally, since your blog and your picks are not commercial (or at least, have not been so far), I would encourage you to contact forum owner Paul Ross, at [email protected] (you cannot use private messages yet), and ask him to place link to your blog in your signature; I know you will easily meet requirements for that. :ok Good luck with your tips, and looking forward to see you active here! :) Let me know if you need any help with posting in this forum! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 Re: Unbelievable Premier League Profits .... I won't post the selections on here because I don't want to be banned for spam but they are on the internet and so some of you may have seen them about already...... Why would posting your selections on this thread be regarded as "spam" ? As long as you stick to the posting rules, I don't think there would be a problem. EDIT.... oops... I posted this before seeing Froment's comments. Froment explains everything :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo_BB Posted April 26, 2012 Author Share Posted April 26, 2012 Re: Unbelievable Premier League Profits Hi Froment and Grex, thanks for your comments... You know what they say Froment, "if you can't beat them join them" and I was bored of talking to myself and well, there's just so much good content on here :) Thanks for the advice on how I should go about using the forum for this by the way - it's much appreciated! What I meant was I thought it would be spam if I posted my picks retrospectively or posted a link to my spreadsheet. I'm more than happy to post the picks on here (will do this weekend's tomorrow) and can give some reasoning but it's basically me pricing up the premier league games and betting on the outcome that differs the most. I was just after some feedback as to whether you think I've been lucky etc or some general discussion about the premier league this season and if there have been different trends to previous seasons and how bookmakers price the matches up. I would like to show the picks so far if anyone is interested for some comment and discussion. i understand it's impossible for you to trust that these were done before the event but I know that Froment has seen a lot of them and you can see them being posted on my blog with date/times etc. If you are interested and can advise me on the best way to show these that would be great. In the meantime I will contact Paul Ross about putting a link to my blog on my signature too! Thanks for welcoming me to the forum! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo_BB Posted April 26, 2012 Author Share Posted April 26, 2012 Re: Unbelievable Premier League Profits Btw when I post my selections tomorrow I will also start a new thread with a less spammy sounding title too! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 Re: Unbelievable Premier League Profits You're a brave man to start a system (on this Forum, anyway) with only a few matches of the season left. Results at this time can be very unpredictable.... ask Arsenal, Man United or Liverpool :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo_BB Posted April 26, 2012 Author Share Posted April 26, 2012 Re: Unbelievable Premier League Profits Haha, I'm a little worried I will jinx the selections now if I'm honest but unpredictable results don't concern me and in fact there exactly the type of games I have made the most profit so far. I give each of the 3 outcome a % and where it mosts differs to the % of the odds available I bet, even if I don't think that outcome will happpen if that makes sense! Just looking over your unders/over picks Grex... do you update the thread title with the new yield each week? Both over 10% is very impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 Re: Unbelievable Premier League Profits What I meant was I thought it would be spam if I posted my picks retrospectively or posted a link to my spreadsheet. ... I was just after some feedback as to whether you think I've been lucky etc or some general discussion about the premier league this season and if there have been different trends to previous seasons and how bookmakers price the matches up. I would like to show the picks so far if anyone is interested for some comment and discussion. If you posted picks retrospectively and claim profits for the sake of your thread here, it would not be considered as spam; but it would be against the rules, and also would attract negative comments of other members, so don't do that, it's important to start "counting" your profit/loss here from zero. If you want to post them for the sake of discussion, then it's fine, you can do it, but I'm not sure if it will gain many comments... As for link to your spreadsheet, since it's not commercial, there is no strict rule, it's up to moderators' dicretion whether they would remove it or not; personally, I would not remove it, for obvious reasons. ;) But since you contacted Paul, maybe you can wait untill he replies, to be on the safe side! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo_BB Posted April 26, 2012 Author Share Posted April 26, 2012 Re: Unbelievable Premier League Profits Thanks Froment, yes I have emailed him so I'll wait before risking being banned as I hope to stay around on here! In case anyone's interested I just did some calculations on football data and there have been only 24% draws so far this season and 30% away wins. The draws are a bit low (last season 29%) and the aways very high (normally around 24%) and so I guess we can expect this to converge closer to the average in the last few games. A lot of my wins have been on big priced aways and so this might go some way to explain why I have been able to do so well. Towards the end of the season when players are tired and happy to take a valuable point I think you get more draws and the hotter conditions with firmer ground also makes draws more likely I reckon. I will keep all this in mind when allocating my percentages for the last few games but we all know that there are no guarantees of %s staying the same especially in such a small sample of 380 matches a season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 Re: Unbelievable Premier League Profits Hy and welcome. I am more than interested to see the picks you had and also the blog (hope you can post a link). Really you don't have to be astonished about your results, since, even if the bookmakers are very good at the job they do, they also don't price the matches as the real chance, but more as the real chance the vast majority of bettors will bet on. So you can easily beat the bookmaker, as they always target the majority and their vision. So there is a big chance of making a nice return if you have a system that actually works, as you do. The most important is that your system calculates a real % chance and an actual chance that actually win the % you get. Don't put it on luck. It's not luck on 136 matches. You can be lucky once, twice, 10 times but not 100 times, especially over a great period of time. This was what I felt with my recent system, which in 3 months, had 27 selection with an unbelievable S/R and Yield. I thought could it be luck, but what is the chance to have luck 3 months in a row? What is the chance to have luck when I extract the matches from hundreds of others? The final though: luck is matter of fact. People usually say they are lucky when they hit something that theoretically they shouldn't. But when you hit something that you should theoretically hit, that's not luck, that's statistics. Good luck and looking forward for the selections. I would be curios what S/R you had until now. If you can say it by selection (i mean Home Draw Away etc.). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo_BB Posted April 26, 2012 Author Share Posted April 26, 2012 Re: Unbelievable Premier League Profits Hi UsManyDead and thanks for your response! I'm pleased that you don't think it's luck and I really hope I can continue to profit. You sound like you've done well too and I would be interested in your system too. Is it on here? I think you are right about the bookmakers setting the odds in anticipation of where the money will be placed and then adjusted when it is. e.g. Liverpool were ridiculously short at 1.47 last weekend. I emailed Paul and he said I can post a link to the spreadsheet and to my blog but I don't have the rights to put in my signature yet I don't think. Here is the sheet and the results so far: http://www.betfairbanter.co.uk/PremierLeagueBets.xlsx All I do is input the % chances I think the 3 outcomes have, input the odds I have found and the sheet tells me which outcome differs the most. It does this using a kelly calculation and the sheet shows results for kelly stakes too but level stake are out performing them currently. It's actually great fun to do because it means you bet on things you normally wouldn't, that have value and that's how you can profit. Hope you like the sheet and if you have any questions or comments then please let me know. I will start a fresh thread tomorrow with this weekends selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webbo_BB Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 Re: Unbelievable Premier League Profits Apologies as I just realised the link was down earlier but it is ok again now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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