BBOTD Friday 20th

[cpo]

2.40 Newbury Tartiflette 1pt win @ 20/1 PaddyPower A very competitive handicap but I like the look of one of the outsiders here who may be more suited by the soft ground than some of the market leaders. It is a little guessing game as to how these horses have trained on from 2 to 3 but this horse showed massive improvement from its first run at Windsor. She was slowly away that day and always outpaced and was comprehensively beaten in the end by 12 lengths. On her second run she was sent off at massive odds at Doncaster on good to soft ground but was always travelling well up with the pace. She quickened well in the final furlong and held on well. I think the step up in trip here will suit and she won’t mind the ground softening up considerably being by Dr Fong. She doesn’t come from one of the big stables which is why we are getting a big price on her but Ed McMahon has a cracking record at the track with 5 wins from 14 runners, showing a level stakes profit of +£19.00. The favourite is very short considering what he has achieved so far and I am more than happy to be taking him on. I think it’s safe to assume the ground will soften up over night and I fancy Tartiflette to spring a surprise in this one. She does have to improve again on her maiden win but I don’t think that is out of the question. Graham Gibbons rides her again and he is riding with plenty of confidences at the moment, operating at a 24% strike-rate. Gregorian probably interests me the most of the remainder but I will take my chances with the Ed McMahon trained Tartiflette.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Friday 20th 5:30 Bath - Lethal Force - Back Sometimes horses that run well in Group races without winning can achieve superficially high ratings because of their proximity to good horses when in actual fact they had the race run to suit them. Red Rock Canyon was a hood example as he struggled when dropped into poor maidens despite being rated 100+ as he was a front runner. That doesn't seem to be the case though with today's runner, Lethal Force. He ran an absolute screamer when 4th of 23 in a strong Coventry last year, and he followed that up with another excellent 4th in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood. He's presumably been dropped into this company to get a morale boosting win before having his sights re-raised back up to Group level 1pt win @ SP