Flat Racing Sunday 15th of April

[robertob]

15.25 Leopardstown: Elusive Ridge EW @ 25/1 Boylesports Elusive Ridge has earned himself a chance at this level due to some fine performances on the All-Weather in the last time. He's obviously a better horse on AW but landed two wins on turf as well during his career, one of them came last July at Bellewstown over 1m. He's very versatile in terms of the race distance, though he looks to be best over a mile where he's 3/6. It's still doubtful if he is up to this level and normally he won't have a chance to beat Famous Name and Sharestan but if you take the first two out then you have a wide open contest. So he must has a real chance to get placed at least and could have a tactical advantage over the field if they allow him a soft lead what is not unlikely as he's the only confirmed front-runner. He has also a good draw which should ensure that he gets the early lead anyway. Joseph O'Brien takes the ride what is a big positive in my mind as none else rides front-runners so good as he does in Ireland. That means if Elusive Ridge could probably dictate the tempo of the race, and if the rest of the field does not take him serious and kicks approaching the home turn then he might be hard to peg back indeed. 16.35 Leopardstown: Light Heavy @ 4/1 Boylesports This very lightly raced Jim Bolger colt looks very talented and holds various classic entries. He made a late debut at Navan last year in October and showed some good attitude, finishing second to AOB's promising colt Frontier who had the advantage of experience on his side that day, though Light Heavy finished only a neck beaten, fought back in the closing stage over inadequate 7 furlongs. He made his seasonal reappearance at Leopardstown recently, won there against solid opposition over one mile in convincing fashion. He showed tremendous will to win the race over a trip which is actually too short for him. He will be seen at his best over further, no doubt. Tomorrow will be his third career start and he takes a step up in trip to 10 furlongs. He will relish this new distance and should be fit enough after his recent win. There is also loads of improvement expected due to the gained experience and the step up in distance. I think he is capable enough of beating short price favourite David Livingston who will also relish the step up in trip as well but might be not 100% fit for his first start this season. So 4/1 is quite a big price for Light Heavy in my mind.

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing Sunday 15th of April Very little time today. 3.25 Leopardstown FAMOUS NAME 4pts to win @ 6/4 Won this race twice in the last two years both times coming back from a similar break (6 and a half months off). This classy 7yo should be hard to beat especially since the only big threat Sharestan (impressive winner of the Irish Lincoln 3 weeks ago) will have to face this faster ground surely not made up for this Aga Khan's colt. 4.00 Leopardstown FIRE LILY 2pts to win @ 15/8 My favourite 2yo comes back and faces a bunch of good fillies in this 1000 Guineas trial (group 3). No problem with the trip and the ground and half a stone in hand with these rivals if she is back to her best and with her stablemates running so well of late I have few doubts she is coming close to her best. 4.35 Leopardstown LIGHT HEAVY 2tps to win @ 3/1 Interesting race with 3 big contenders. I don't like the chances (at Evens money) of David Livingston and John Oxx's Call To Battle has to prove his fitness and could be in trouble with this faster ground so I'll be with Light Heavy who made a good debut at Navan (2nd in Ocotber) and shaped really well when winning over a mile here 18 days ago running still very green and shaping as this step back up in trip would suit.