How can my system be improved?

[henhouseharry]

First of all I am considering using lay bets on BetFair. I have developed 3 applications: 1. To retrieve the form data from Sporting Life, 2. Select potential bets using selection rules I have implemented (In C# if anyone is interested), 3. A program to monitor BetFair prices using the free API for current prices. I am at work most of the time so can't monitor this myself but I have collected a lot of data. I haven't risked any real cash at the moment just to see how it goes. Results: Whole of March 2012 possible selections: 760 lose: 41 win rate: 94.6% However most of these selections are too risky with very high odds so I consider

[henhouseharry]

Re: How can my system be improved? I see there have been no replies so far so I will follow this up with some real selections. Starting points: 100 Remember these are LAY bet selections so when the horse loses I win. When the horse wins I lose. The points system +1 for a win and -1 for a lose doesn't really work here because with a lay bet I lose (odds - 1) * stake. The lay bet odds shown here were retrieved at different times of day upto 10 minutes before the race started. If I actually tried to lay them the bet may have been partially matched or unmatched depending on my reaction time of logging onto BetFair and actually placing the lay bet. 01/04/2012 1. Ascot, Safari Journey (USA), 6.6, 16:05, WIN, 101 2. Ascot, Phare Isle (IRE), 9.8, 17:15, WIN, 102 03/04/2012 3. Sedgefield, Shannagarry (IRE), 7.2, 15:00, WIN, 103 4. Southwell, Shifting Gold (IRE), 8, 15:20, LOSE, 102 5. Fontwell Park, Ninfea (IRE), 7, 15:40, LOSE, 101 6. Sedgefield, Sands Of Vatersay, 8.2, 16:00, WIN, 102 7. Fontwell Park, Jolibob (IRE), 6.6, 16:10, WIN, 103 8. Southwell, Suddenly Susan (IRE), 10.5, 16:20, WIN, 104 9. Southwell, Mata Hari Blue, 10, 16:20, WIN, 105 10. Southwell, Putin (IRE), 7.2, 17:20, WIN, 106 11. Southwell, Spacecraft (IRE), 6.3, 17:20, WIN, 107 04/04/2012 12. Hereford, Am I Blue, 9.6, 15:40, WIN, 108 13. Hereford, Fidelor (FR), 8.4, 15:40, WIN, 109 14. Lingfield Park, Bute Street, 10.5, 16:00, WIN, 110 15. Wolverhampton, Speightowns Kid (USA), 7.4, 17:30, WIN, 111 16. Wolverhampton, Angelo Poliziano, 5.9, 17:30, WIN, 112 17. Wolverhampton, Port Hill, 7.6, 18:30, WIN, 113 05/04/2012 18. Folkestone, Roodee Queen, 5.8, 15:10, WIN, 114 19. Folkestone, Scarlet Rocks (IRE), 8.6, 15:40, WIN, 115 20. Ludlow, Marescsou (FR), 5.3, 15:50, WIN, 116 21. Folkestone, Bussa, 11, 16:10, WIN, 117 22. Folkestone, Dove Cottage (IRE), 7.8, 16:10, LOSE, 116 23. Ludlow, Quarton (IRE), 9.6, 16:20, WIN, 117 24. Ludlow, Material Boy, 8.6, 16:50, WIN, 118 07/04/2012 25. Carlisle, Maybe I Wont, 3.95, 13:45, WIN, 119 26. Kempton Park, Highland Knight (IRE), 10, 14:05, WIN, 120 27. Carlisle, The Wayward Lord, 4, 14:15, WIN, 121 28. Newton Abbot, Kayfton Pete, 3, 16:10, WIN, 122 29. Newton Abbot, Terfel's Toscar (IRE), 5, 16:10, WIN, 123 30. Carlisle, Rebel Swing, 8.2, 16:30, WIN, 124 31. Haydock Park, Graduation Night, 8.4, 16:40, WIN, 125 09/04/2012 32. Chepstow, Soir D'estruval (FR), 10, 14:50, WIN, 126 33. Chepstow, Humbel Ben (IRE), 9.4, 14:50, WIN, 127 34. Huntingdon, Henry's Hero, 7.6, 14:55, WIN, 128 35. Yarmouth, Barwick, 10, 15:00, LOSE, 127 36. Yarmouth, Batgirl, 7.8, 15:00, WIN, 128 37. Plumpton, Twin Bud, 10, 15:40, WIN, 129 38. Fakenham, Springfield Raki, 4.6, 15:50, WIN, 130 39. Fakenham, Festival Dreams, 10.5, 15:50, WIN, 131 40. Chepstow, Cold Harbour, 9, 16:00, WIN, 132 41. Huntingdon, Dot Or Feather (IRE), 10.5, 16:40, WIN, 133 42. Plumpton, Benny The Swinger (IRE), 11, 17:25, WIN, 134 43. Plumpton, Tecktal (FR), 4.5, 17:25, WIN, 135 10/04/2012 44. Pontefract, Jacob Mccandles, 8, 14:20, WIN, 136 45. Southwell, Juarla (IRE), 7.2, 15:30, WIN, 137 46. Pontefract, Mirrored, 9.4, 16:25, WIN, 138 47. Yarmouth, Dickie Le Davoir, 8.4, 16:45, WIN, 139 48. Yarmouth, Danzoe (IRE), 8.4, 17:15, WIN, 140 11/04/2012 49. Lingfield Park, Chjimes (IRE), 6.4, 13:50, WIN, 141 50. Catterick, Oneniteinheaven (IRE), 6.6, 14:00, LOSE, 140 51. Catterick, Lizzie (IRE), 7.6, 14:30, WIN, 141 52. Nottingham, Come On Dave (IRE), 9.8, 15:10, WIN, 142 53. Lingfield Park, Mac Tiernan (IRE), 4.6, 15:20, WIN, 143 54. Lingfield Park, Bold Ring, 8, 15:50, WIN, 144 55. Nottingham, Chelsea Mick, 9.2, 16:40, WIN, 145 56. Catterick, Ballarina, 7.4, 17:00, WIN, 146 57. Kempton Park, Addikt (IRE), 5.3, 17:30, LOSE, 145 58. Nottingham, Mistress Of Rome, 9.2, 17:40, WIN, 146 59. Nottingham, Dilizan (IRE), 11, 17:40, WIN, 147 60. Kempton Park, Mack's Sister, 9.6, 20:30, WIN, 148 61. Kempton Park, Flashbang, 11, 20:30, WIN, 149 12/04/2012 62. Aintree, Free World (FR), 10.5, 16:15, WIN, 150 63. Wolverhampton, Great Shot, 7.4, 20:25, WIN, 151 64. Wolverhampton, Invigilator, 7.6, 20:55, LOSE, 150 13/04/2012 65. Sedgefield, The Thirsty Bricky (IRE), 5.2, 15:55, WIN, 151 66. Sedgefield, Copt Hill, 11, 17:05, WIN, 152 67. Sedgefield, Letterpress (IRE), 9.2, 17:05, WIN, 153 14/04/2012 68. Lingfield Park, Azrael, 9.6, 14:00, WIN, 154 69. Newcastle, Dzesmin (POL), 11, 14:45, WIN, 155 70. Newcastle, Lady Gar Gar, 10, 15:55, WIN, 156 15/04/2012 71. Ffos Las, Ceepeegee (IRE), 10.5, 15:15, WIN, 157 72. Market Rasen, Bally Gunner, 7.6, 15:35, WIN, 158 73. Ffos Las, Grand Article (IRE), 8, 16:55, WIN, 159 16/04/2012 74. Wolverhampton, Cotton King, 8.8, 15:15, WIN, 160 17/04/2012 75. Kempton Park, Moscow Chancer (IRE), 6.2, 14:50, LOSE, 159 76. Exeter, Al Co (FR), 9.2, 15:00, WIN, 160 77. Exeter, Sea Saffron, 8.6, 15:30, LOSE, 159 18/04/2012 78. Beverley, Cosmic Moon, 6.4, 15:55, WIN, 160 79. Newmarket, Responsive, 10, 17:55, WIN, 161 80. Kempton Park, Molly Jones, 10, 19:05, WIN, 162 19/04/2012 81. Cheltenham, Tempest River (IRE), 8.8, 15:10, WIN, 163 82. Newmarket, Elusivity (IRE), 9.6, 15:35, WIN, 164 83. Cheltenham, Pause And Clause (IRE), 8, 16:20, WIN, 165 84. Newmarket, Clare Island Boy (IRE), 10, 17:50, WIN, 166 20/04/2012 85. Newbury, Cheveton, 8.8, 13:35, WIN, 167 86. Ayr, Toshi (USA), 10, 14:50, WIN, 168 87. Ayr, Aneyeforaneye (IRE), 7.8, 14:50, WIN, 169 88. Fontwell Park, Sun Quest, 6.8, 16:15, WIN, 170 89. Fontwell Park, Marshal Zhukov (IRE), 8.4, 16:15, LOSE, 169 90. Fontwell Park, Inthejungle (IRE), 4.9, 16:45, WIN, 170 91. Fontwell Park, Perkin Warbeck, 9.6, 17:15, WIN, 171 22/04/2012 92. Stratford, Tarn Hows (IRE), 8.4, 16:30, LOSE, 170 93. Wincanton, Diamond's Return (IRE), 3.9, 16:40, LOSE, 169 23/04/2012 94. Hexham, Treehouse, 8, 15:00, LOSE, 168 95. Pontefract, Tapis Libre, 9.8, 17:15, LOSE, 167 96. Windsor, Achalas (IRE), 6, 18:55, WIN, 168 97. Windsor, Kleitomachos (IRE), 8.2, 18:55, LOSE, 167 98. Windsor, Spanish Fork (IRE), 9, 19:55, WIN, 168 24/04/2012 99. Wolverhampton, Miserere Mei (IRE), 7.4, 14:20, WIN, 169 100. Wolverhampton, Amazing Star (IRE), 11, 15:20, WIN, 170 101. Towcester, Devils River (IRE), 7.6, 17:20, WIN, 171 102. Towcester, Drom, 9.6, 18:20, WIN, 172