Flat Racing 9th April (Yarmouth, Redcar & Warwick)

[chris34]

After a good weekend with a winner on both days I am very wary of bank holiday racing! Very rarely do I come out winning so with that in mind just the one selection for me today! 5.05 Warwick Ingleby Spirit lost his way a bit towards the back end of last year but made a decent hurdler in the meantime and although could never get competitive at Cheltenham last time out a slight worry he is handicapped to take a hand in this having won off a 1lb higher mark earlier in the year last year obviously has to prove well being after that below par effort. Anton Dollin showed enough last year to suggest he could win off a mark like this but ground far from ideal. Saint Helena made a reasonable reappearance last month on AW but not guaranteed to build on that given she has gone well fresh before and also again ground not ideal. Landaman comes from a yard that sometimes very hard to predict but do appear to be going well again but having won a Ponte maiden last year failed to go on from that in 2 handicaps, mark starting to look a little harsh possibly especially when looking at that maiden form not much else has done anything behind and certainly didnt show enough on recent reappearance to suggest he will be winning a competitive race like this. Miss Aix comes from a yard that are looking to have a better season this year after a dismal autumn. Her maiden form does look a little stronger and a mark of 79 may not prove beyond her this season but may just need the run. Carter a revelation on the AW for this yard but has to prove he is as good on turf (has since won a couple of Novice Hurdles in the summer last year). Brouhaha simply seems to be going through the motions at the moment, Yes Chef was far too keen on reappearance to do himself justice, best when out in front and unlikely to get a soft time out front in this field. Refractor won a AW maiden well enough but disappoint in handicap next time out, not many miles on clock and far from exposed but has something to prove of this mark and on switched back to turf. Follow The Flag is just Follow The Flag a total law un too himself often race lazily gets himself detached etc. and it really does depend what mood he is in on the day these day and for all he is well handicapped on AW form and ran well last time out on turf he is not an attractive betting opportunity these days. For me Mc Birney really caught the eye under a very strange ride at Doncaster in a competitive big field handicap. Way off the pace early stages of the race before travelling well and making a positive move before turning in to sit handily on the outside but was then switched in behind wall of horses struggled for a way through and switched about a bit before gaps apppeared cant have done his momentum any good and for all he probably wouldnt have won he would have surely been closer under a better ride. Smart admirable jockey on board today in Carson and with ground conditions to suit and plenty of pace on likely in this race this could be setup for him especially if coming on for the run and handicapper been very kind and dropped him a 1lb and having come 2nd off a 5lb higher mark at Newmarket last year he could potentially be well treated. 1.5pt e/w McBirney 8/1 lads

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing 9th April (Yarmouth, Redcar & Warwick) 3.00 Yarmouth: Spirit Of Xaar EW @33/1 Bet365 I think this is a pretty poor and therefore wide open race and I'll see a chance for Spirit Of Xaar to be in the frame here. Well, if you see the naked results in the formbook it looks not very likely, though there are some reasons to get at least the impression that he's overpriced. Most important fact is that Spirit Of Xaar can run of a career lowest mark. He's now a 72 rated horse but was once rated 95. That days are long gone and he was very inconsistent over the last years, though he was still only 1/2 a lengths beaten by Six of Hearts in a very strong 7f Handicap at Naas last year and finished second in a solid Apprentice Handicap at the same venue later, both off a mark of 83. He was then sold for £14.000 and started the season with three poor efforts on the All-Weather for the new connections in the UK. I thought he last performance at Kempton was a bit better than the bare result suggests however. He was a long way beaten but stayed on a bit in the closing stages and looked not like a horse that lost his enthusiasm. He'll probably happy to be back at turf anyway. Conditions at Yarmouth are probably okay tomorrow, he won over 8f with a bit of juice in the ground a maiden race in very convincing style three years ago. The jockey booking of Seb Sanders is a big positive. He rides this track very well, has a 23.10% strikerate here over the past two years. Means not all is negative about Spirit Of Xaar and I think it's quite a big price for this horse in this field. 5.20 Yarmouth: Highlife Dancer @ 8/1 Bet365 Pretty interesting race and I have to admit I really like the chance of Junket, though I cant have him for the price. That's good as it makes the decision easy because I'm pretty keen on Highlife Dancer as well. He progressed well as a three year old last season, having won five times. It's not out of this world that he still can progress further and I think he has a good opportunity to add another win to his tally tomorrow. He won four from eleven starts over 10 furlongs during his career so far and is very versatile in terms of the ground conditions and won't mind if there is a bit of juice in the ground. He won already at Yarmouth, the win came over 7 furlongs though. But I have no doubts that 10f at this track will suit. It's a flat, galloping track what is exactly what Highlife Dancer likes. He made his seasonal reappearance at Kempton three weeks ago, was a long way beaten, but he's never been good at All-Weather at his other two starts before, so it was probably rather a nice work out to get him fit. I'm neither concerned that he was well beaten in his last five starts last season as I assume he struggled from a high mark and the consequences of a long season as he had 12 starts till his Epsom win in August. That performance came in an Apprentice Handicap off a mark of 73 and it was a really good one and it looked that day as if he could still win from a higher mark again. He didn't achieve it last year though and is now even 2lb below that winning mark as a result. So he could be easily very well handicapped tomorrow, and with a run under already under his belt he shouldn't have an issue with fitness. There are some more very encouraging facts: Trainer Mick Channon was pretty successful over the last two years at Yarmouth, produced a 15% Strike rate in that period here. He has his string in very good form at the moment as he enjoyed a 21% strikerate in the last 14 days and it was even more successful in that time when Martin Harley rode the horses as this combo produced a massive strikerate of 37.50% (incredible 75% of the horses were placed!). Overall: There speaks quite a lot for a big run of Highlife Dancer tomorrow and therefore is his price way too big.