Grand national siring

[jayalexander]

http://bloodstock.racingpost.com/blog/bloodstock/george-kimberley/ Very interesting reading and (imo) something that could influence your picks on the day! Published 5th Apr 2011 Not long to go until the most exhilarating ten minutes of the year for many of us. And if you've backed one who is still travelling sweetly in the leading half-dozen at Valentine's Brook on the second circuit, it's doubly fun. That's why the day the weights are framed by head handicapper Phil Smith and every confirmation stage thereafter are significant events in my diary. And now we have - barring late hitches - the final 40. It is the extremes of the Aintree showpiecethat makes the race what it is. The longest distance, the biggest fences and the most runners. This unique test of a thoroughbred makes it a favourite for trends followers, with many (myself included) firmly opposed to the notion that it is a lottery. That said, I'm due a winner, having last got that biggest of natural highs when Monty's Pass put in a faultless display under Barry Geraghty in 2003. And I never put all my eggs in one basket, I usually have a few running for me for fearof my one hope being dashed at the first and having to watch the rest of the race as a neutral. A trend that has come to my attention is the recent record of Old Vic's progeny, not just in the Grand National, but over the National fences. It started in 2007 when Mr Pointment won the Becher Chase, followed by Comply Or Die's Grand National in the spring of 2008. Later that year Black Apalachi won a second Becher for Old Vic, with Mr Pointment in second. Mon Mome, a French-bred by Passing Sale (sire of Backstage) from the Northern Dancer line won the 2009 National but runner-up Comply Or Die gave Old Vic a podium finish, and the sire completed a Becher Chase hat-trick that year with Vic Venturi. Then Don't Push It beat Black Apalachi for a Grand National one-two. This season Old Vic managed a third in the Becher with the recently-deceased One Cool Cookie. To summarise, in the previous three seasons (2007/08, 2008/09 and 2009/10), Old Vic was the sire of all three Becher Chase winners and had a one-two in 2008. In the Grand National he has had a winner, a second and a one-two. The Old Vics set to line up on Saturday are Don't Push It, Comply Or Die, Vic Venturi and In Compliance. Last year's hero Don't Push It has top weight, which, as a stats man, is enough to put me off. His weight did however put me off last year, among other things. He has another five pounds to carry and races off a seven pound higher mark (160). Comply Or Die, a gallant second the year after he won it, was well-beaten last year and is presumably past it. Vic Venturi. He won the Becher off 148 and carried 11-6 (OR 154) when badly hampered by a loose horse falling in last year's National. His form this year hasn't been inspiring but neither has it been shocking and he has been trained for the race. Again he races with 11-6, off a two pound higher mark. He is no handicapsnip, but has the Aintree factor on his side. And the Old Vic factor. There could have been another Old Vic in the mix, had One Cool Cookie not met a sad end. As mentioned, he was third in this season's Becher Chase, and while he didn't take to the fences like a duck to water, he showed he stayed well in winning twice over 3m2f and was tried in the Irish National. In Compliance is his year older brother. In Compliance could be the handicap snip. He was third to Wild Passion in the Champion Novice Hurdle at Punchestown; he was second then third in Grade 1 novice chases over 2m4f and 2m; he beat the previous season's Gold Cup winner War Of Attrition to take the 2m4f Grade 1 John Durkan Memorial Chase (a race in whichhe was second the year after); and was third to Neptune Collonges in the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup. Despite all of this, he races off 141, carrying 10-5. He peaked at 169, but having missed all of 2008 and most of 2009 stooped to 139. He doesn't seem to have completely gone though - he won on his first run back after his long absence and comes into this race having won his penultimate start even though he's been running several pounds below his all-time high RPR of 162. The major question mark is stamina. Most of his racing has been around 2m4f, and if he stays well, surely he would have been raced over further than he has. But I am sure I heard Gold Cup mentioned for this horse at some point in hi career, and he didn't seem to be stopping at the end of the Punchestown Gold Cup - his longest race yet. He had a taste of the fences in last year's Topham, when sixth to Always Waining. Like his brother, he didn't earn top marks in my book over the fences, but he was pretty safe and managed to travel well enough over 2m6f to suggest he'll hold a position nicely on Saturday. But will he stay 4m4f? I think he has a less than 50-50 chance, but if he does stay I think he can win. His brother probablywould have stayed and he is bred to. Not only is he by Old Vic, he is out of a Montelimar mare. Before Old Vic, Montelimar was my idea of the first choice Grand National sire, thanks to Monty's Pass (2003) and Hedgehunter (2006). To expand the pedigree, Montelimar is by Alleged, sire of Flemensfirth, who sired 2008 runner-up King John's Castle. Jurado, sire of this season's Becher winner Hello Bud is by Alleged and last season's Becher second Keenan's Future is by a son of Alleged called Safety Catch. Don't Push It is out of an Alleged mare, too. There's another sire who scores big pedigree points: Busted. His last National-winning descendant was Silver Birch (2007), by his son Clearly Bust. He is damsire of Numbersixvalverde's sire (2006) Broken Hearted and damsire of that year's Becher winner's sire Eurobus, who is by Sadler's Wells. Bobbyjo (1999) was by Bustineto, by Bustino, by Busted; Rough Quest (1996) is by Busted's son Crash Course; Seagram (1991) was bredin New Zealand by Balak, by Busted. How about Esha Ness (1993, the National that never was)? Crash Course, by Busted. The Busted line leads to last season's Irish National winner Bluesea Cracker, who bids to become the first mare to win since Nickel Coin in 1951. She is by Buster King, who has sired just four runners under rules, of which three have won and one of them, Inchidaly Rock, is rated 11lb higher than Bluesea Cracker. Less obscure, champion sire Presenting is a grandson of Busted and is represented by Ballabriggs, Niche Market (dam by Jurado) and Killyglen. This is a bit like archaeology - the more you dig, the more you uncover. Lord Gyllene (1997), bred in New Zealand, is by Ring The Bell, by Right Royal; Miinnehoma (1994) was by Kambalda, by Right Royal; Party Politics (1992) was by Politico, by Right Royal. Drawing the line at 25 years ago (West Tip, 1986), other interesting artefacts are that Roselier sired Royal Athlete (1995) and Bindaree (2002); Mossborough crops up in the bottom half of two winning sire's pedigrees (Celtic Cone, Earth Summit and Balak, Seagram), in the bottom half of Bindaree's pedigree and is great-grandsire of Amberleigh House; and Maori Venture was inbred to Hyperion 3x4. While you can't fancy a horse on pedigree above form there are clear patterns in the pedigrees of National winners and I think In Compliance has a great chance if he stays, as does Bluesea Cracker if she settles and Vic Venturi if the weight doesn't stop him. They'd be my big-priced three against the field, though Bluesea Cracker's price has shortened since JP McManus bought her specially for this race. Positive influences - Grand National contenders in order of preference by pedigree rated from one to five In Compliance - by Old Vic, dam by Montelimar ***** Don't Push It - by Old Vic, dam by Alleged ***** Vic Venturi - by Old Vic **** Comply Or Die - by Old Vic **** Bluesea Cracker - by Buster King, by Busted **** Niche Market - by Presenting, grandson of Busted, out of Juresse, granddaughter of Alleged **** The Midnight Club - by Flemensfirth, by Alleged *** Ballabriggs - by Presenting, grandson of Busted *** Killyglen - by Presenting, grandson of Busted *** Tidal Bay - by Flemensfiirth, by Alleged *** Arbor Supreme - by Supreme Leader, grandson of Busted, Mossborough in fourth generation on dam's side *** Hello Bud - by Jurado, by Alleged and Mossborough in fifth generation on dam's side *** Can't Buy Time - by Supreme Leader, grandson of Busted *** Roll Along - dam by Montelimar, by Alleged ** Character Building - dam by Roselier, Mossborough infifth generation on dam's side** Santa's Son - dam by Roselier ** Oscar Time - dam by Supreme Leader, grandson of Busted ** Silver By Nature - second dam by Crash Course, by Busted * Or Noir De Somoza - great-grandsire Misti, sire of Roselier) * Majestic Concorde - damsire by Alleged, Right Royal in fifth generation on dam's side, but speed-orientated sireline