jayalexander Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Hello all and welcome to the return of the highly anticipated flat season. I've been doing this for the previous two years as I felt that beaten favourites were regularly underbet in their next race. Previous results are here: http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/115580-Return-of-the-Beaten-Favs-125-51pts-to-1pt-stakes-in-50-days-FINISHED?highlight= This year I'll be taking jump racing out, but other rules will remain the same. If this is your first time viewing a 'Return of the Beaten Favs' thread, it's worth noting that this has thrown up a 1,500/1 treble in the past! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) 31st March Doncaster 6:05 Dialogue Kempton (AW) 4:05 Primaeval :hope Let's get off to a winning start! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elchubb Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Good Luck with this Jay!:ok Hope it's as successful for you as the last 2 years!:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Good Luck with this. Any recommendation for a staking plan....singles/ doubles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) No specific staking plan but bearing in mind last year's AW strike rate was 27%, it does allow plenty of scope to employ one. I'll probably ratchet the staking, so will invest a percentage of daily winnings into future bets. For the purpose of this thread, however, everything will be to 1pt win, using BFsp. You can get around paying 5% commission by using the multiples market and this also works for just one selection, although £2 is the minimum bet. You can have up to 8 multiples, although you cannot vary the stakes across individual selections, but this works well for the obviously higher odds doubles, trebles etc as you can keep stakes as low as you want providing that you cover the minimum bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Good luck Jay, enjoyed this system last year! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) First slight problem encountered: Primaeval won his last race on UK soil, then finished 2nd in Meydan. The BF notifications that I have set up elsewhere only include UK and Irish runs, so the gelding isn't showing up as a qualifier! I thought it would be a breeze this year, but it seems that things won't be that straightforward! New account set up with Skybet through PL link. £10 free bet on Primaeval :hope Unfortunately just missed out on 13/8 and had to take 6/4! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted March 31, 2012 Author Share Posted March 31, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) GREAT START! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted March 31, 2012 Author Share Posted March 31, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) 31st March Doncaster 6:05 Dialogue Kempton (AW) 4:05 Primaeval 1st @ 2.28 Flat:0/1 AW:1/1 +0.28pts :cow A winning start. Now lets get a few more banged in! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted March 31, 2012 Author Share Posted March 31, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 2 - 1/4/12 Doncaster 3:25 Marine Commando 5:05 Montaser Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 1, 2012 Author Share Posted April 1, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) No winners on day 2. Flat:0/3 AW:1/1 -1.72pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 1, 2012 Author Share Posted April 1, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 3 - 2/4/12 Redcar 3:45 Shamardeliah 5:15 Painted Tail Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 2, 2012 Author Share Posted April 2, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 3 - No winners! Flat 0/5 AW 1/1 -3.72pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 2, 2012 Author Share Posted April 2, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 4 - 3/4/12 Southwell (AW) 3:20 Mediterranean Sea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 3, 2012 Author Share Posted April 3, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Not going well at the moment! Flat 0/5 AW 1/2 -4.72pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 4, 2012 Author Share Posted April 4, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 5 - 4/4/12 Lingfield (AW) 2:30 Hinton Admiral 5:00 Big Creek Wolverhampton (AW) 5:30 No Mean Trick 7:30 Forward Feline Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elchubb Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Should Mahfal in 18.30 at wolves be a selection Jay? BF lto and only one in the race according to oddschecker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 4, 2012 Author Share Posted April 4, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Mahfal was a bf over jumps and now coming back to the flat. I was notified that it was a qualifier but it wasn't showing on the racing post as a BF, which is strange as I'm sure they would have included it despite the circumstances in previous years. I was going to include a brief explanation of why I wouldn't include it when I posted up selections before deleting it but it seems that someone with eagle eyes is on my case :) Good job it lost! I won't be including any in future that are coming back from jumps as it's a totally different kind of race! Gold star, Elchubb! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 4, 2012 Author Share Posted April 4, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Just been looking at Forward Feline in the 7:30. Won the race last year at 20/1 and is available at 25/1 with some firms this year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elchubb Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Fair play mate, makes sense! Good luck in the last!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 4, 2012 Author Share Posted April 4, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) No luck after day 5! Flat 0/5 AW 1/6 -8.72pts Could this be the year that the wheels fall off!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 4, 2012 Author Share Posted April 4, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 6 - 5/4/12 Folkestone 3:10 Regal Approval 4:10 Shirataki 5:10 Tidal Run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philss_99 Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Good Luck Jay :ok Previous thread makes an interesting read. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 5, 2012 Author Share Posted April 5, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 6 - 5/4/12 Folkestone 3:10 Regal Approval NR 4:10 Shirataki 5:10 Tidal Run 1st @ 5.19 Flat 1/7 AW 1/6 -5.72pts Tidal Run does the business after 252 days away from the track, whilst running at top weight. One of my favourite trainers in Mick Channon :) Available at 7/1 with a couple of firms earlier in the day, returned at 10/3. Personally, I managed to get 5/1 Now lets hope we can push on from here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 5, 2012 Author Share Posted April 5, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Could be as many as 7 selections come Saturday! Predicting a treble ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 6, 2012 Author Share Posted April 6, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 7 - 7/4/12 Kempton (AW) 3:15 English Summer 4:20 Leqqaa Musselburgh 2:45 Hamish McGonagall 3:20 Layla's Hero 3:50 Queens Revenge 4:25 Myraid 5:35 Greenhead High Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 7, 2012 Author Share Posted April 7, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Hamish McGonagall is the only winner of the day and (just) came in at 4.46, which was actually lower than the industry sp. Flat 2/12 AW 1/8 -8.26pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 7, 2012 Author Share Posted April 7, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 8 - 8/4/12 Musselburgh 3:50 Lexington Bay 4:25 Ad Value 4:50 Colbyor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 8, 2012 Author Share Posted April 8, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Ad Value reduces the losses a little after romping home by 1.5 lengths @ 4. Flat 3/15 AW 1/8 -7.26pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 8, 2012 Author Share Posted April 8, 2012 Re: Return of the beaten favs (3rd year) Day 9 - 9/4/12 Redcar 2:00 Da'Quonde 2:35 River Dragon 3:45 Invincible Hero 4:55 Petsas Pleasure 5:30 Holy Angel Warwick 3:20 Woolfall Sovereign 6:15 Percythepinto Yarmouth 4:10 Fourth Of June Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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