paparainbow Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 ok, regarding corner betting, lets say that using poisson distr someone calculates the expected number of corners in a match. Do you have any good idea how to divide these corners between the two teams? Calculate the supremacy of corners in other words. Using the odds of winning for the two teams (draw no bet probabilities in other words) is not accurate at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paparainbow Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Re: question about corner betting consider these two games 1.bolton qpr ( 2,50-3,25-2,87 /// u/o 2,5: 1,95-1,85) corners 2way u/o 11,5: 1,90-1,80 bolton u/o 6,5: 1,66-2,10 qpr u/o 5,51,83-1,83 1.Aston villa-Fulham ( 2,50-3,25-2,87 /// u/o 2,5: 1,72-2.07) corners 2way u/o 11,5: 1,90-1,80 bolton u/o 6,5: 1,61-2,2 qpr u/o 5,5 1,9-1,80 Both games have the same 3way pattern, but different under over (goal expactancy). The 1st game has a corner expactancy of 11,78 as the second. nevertheless in the first game, more corners for the favorite are expected ... (more goals are also expected ) does this ring any bell, how to calculate mathematicaly each teams corners? Aparently expected goals, or u/o probabilites sould be taken into account. edit: odds taken from 365, and also there is always the case that corner lines and odds where initially similar, but prces where changed due to liabilitis and risk management from the booky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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