Flat Racing 24th Winter Derby Day!

[chris34]

2.25 Lingfield The end of the season is near with the Winter Derby day finally arrived, this is an interesting listed affair over 7f which has some interesting sorts involved in it. Bannock is a speedy front runner but yet to tackle this longer trip which is a worry and the fact he was well held on this surface in Dundalk on final start and wide draw no help neither so will really need to be at top of game. Had a hard campaign last year and horses dont forget that at such a young age but yard continue in good form. Gusto probably won what was a weakish listed event when last seen that form hasnt really been tested since and his official rating may just flatter him slightly. Yard are little quiet at present but is known to handle this surface which is a positive. Pale Orchid is a filly going the right way winning 3 of her last 4 starts, all wins have come over 6f or 5f but did run a good race in 2nd in a 7f race on penultimate start, will need to learn to settle better tackling this longer trip again and upto this level but clearly on a roll and shouldnt be dismissed lightly. For me a risk is taken on Gatepost, he was impressive on first 2 starts as a 2yr old over 5f before running a very eye catching race at Royal Ascot staying on into 5th in Coventry Stakes, failed to build on those efforts afterwards in 3 starts but ground may be an excuse for those runs he is highly regarded by connections with an entry to the 2000 Guineas still a possibility and if proving all is well after break and handling this surface he could just be a class above most of these and plenty of room for improvement in a race likely to be run to suit. 2pt win Gatepost 5/1 boyles 3.25 Lingfield Premio Loco is top rated of the Winter Derby this year, he does carry a 5lb penalty in this field in what looks a strong renewal. His record fresh is reasonable but will have to be at very best to take this. Black Spirit contested some decent races and proved consistent, is another that has to prove well being and effectiveness on this surface. Cai Shen has been subject to some attention in the betting this week but wide draw slowed that money up earlier in the week. Rounded off end of 3yr old campaign with a good win in a conditions event after a generally disappointing season his inconsistency last year is my fear on seasonal reappearance. Junoob has become a real story on the AW this winter have been claimed out of a claimer in December he has since won a conditions event and a listed event last time out, appeared to win with plenty in hand that day this clearly requires more but no forlorn hope to continue improvement. For me Emerald Witness offers some E/W value in a wide open renewal. He returned to form this winter over CD making it 3 from 3 when last seen here off a mark 92 finishing just ahead of Tinshu that day who has since finished 2nd to Junoob in listed event so on that form he holds every chance given he appeared to win with plenty in hand despite the winning margin (nevers win by far with his run style) This race will clearly be run to suit and if putting some disappointing efforts behind him in Dubai he holds every chance over a CD he loves (easy to forgive any horse running in Dubai in my opinion get some very strange results/races out there) 1pt e/w Emerald Witness 20/1 VC 4.00 Lingfield Really good looking handicap despite the smallish field for the prize money. Axiom isnt easy to win with these days and this might just be a warm up for another crack at the Lincoln in which he ran 4th in last year when fresh. Reve De Nuit is passed over given this is on polytrack and all his form on the AW has come at Southwell. Final Drive was a revelation last AW season before perhaps going over the top in Dubai, failed to land a blow from lengthy absence last time out should come on for the run but clearly needs a career best now. Hung Parliament was disappointing when landing on these sures and has something to prove now. Dubai Dynamo isnt that well handicapped but did run a promising race over an inadequate trip on seasonal reappearance, but probably does need some help from the handicap at present. Titan Triumph won last time out just getting the better of Dozy Joe who has since let the form down big time, effectively 4lb out of the handicap here whichmakes it tougher but useful apprentice does take 5lb off which will help but does tend need everything to fall apart in his lap. Kingscroft like most of Johnstons runners was ready for for his reappearance so there is unlikely to be more to come on the fitness front but he ran a game race and a 2lb rise is fair, and although that was over further and has won over this trip all his best form has come over slightly shorter and based on winning form requires a career best effort. George Guru carries an even more impressive profile raced solely on the all weather, with 9 runs 2 wins and 4 placed efforts, unlucky to bump into an improving sort on reappearance at Kempton before beating a subsequent winner next time out and only finding another unexposed improving sort too good last time with 3rd True To Form winning next time out that form looks rock solid and just a 1lb rise leaves him looking very well treated and should again go one better. 5pt win George Guru (Took 5/2 with VC, still available with some non BOG firms)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing 24th Winter Derby Day! Don't know what to make of Gatepost. Might be a fast ground horse, but still should have performed better after the Coventry if he wants to take this over 7f. Not sure what was up with him really. His effort at Royal Ascot was superb - one of the unluckiest runs of last season in my opinion.