Osesame Posted January 30, 2005 Share Posted January 30, 2005 I'd like people who look for value to describe what thay actually mean by value,and if they find that following their perceived value has made their betting profitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr onemore Posted January 30, 2005 Share Posted January 30, 2005 Re: Value? Best place I've ever found value was learning to play limit poker! At the low level games, you can regularly play hands with real probabilistic value - it really can be worked out at this level - and over a long stretch have an edge of about 3 to 4% over the mugs. It was quite an education, managing a (small) bankroll, with only a small egde, and seeing how long it takes to grow, (quite literally, thousand of bets...) and yet how long the losing periods can also be. I'd recommend this exercise to any punter who has a serious attitude towards their edge, value betting, patience, and bankroll maintenance. As far as other betting - I almost exclusively bet on football. Have spent a lot of time testing systems, looking for value, which I define - as like most I think - as identifying trends which if back testing has proved profitable over previous seasons can reasonably be expected to continue in the future. My problem is that I have tested hundreds of ideas theoretically, but not put into practice the kind of discipline as stated in the poker paragraph above to really say if I have profited from identifying and backing value bets. Plenty of profit in theory - not so much in practice!! Hope that answers your question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted January 30, 2005 Share Posted January 30, 2005 Re: Value? Tut, tut. The systems & strategy guy that doesn't know what value is ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted January 30, 2005 Author Share Posted January 30, 2005 Re: Value? Yes I have been guilty of poor discipline too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted January 30, 2005 Author Share Posted January 30, 2005 Re: Value? Dave ,SHUT UP, I do know what value is.Why not give us your defintion? :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted January 30, 2005 Share Posted January 30, 2005 Re: Value? Well if something's a 2.00 shot and it's actually got higher than 50% chance of winning then it's obviously value. Deciding on the percentage chance is obviously the problem. I've pretty much given up fixed odds betting now, and moved onto spread betting. A bit more difficult to decide on value there, but best thing I find is to work out a method to predict your own spreads, and if the market is way out of line then you've found yourself some value. Obviously finding the method is the difficult part, but in some markets I seem to have found a pretty solid method (cross corners, double winning card numbers in racing the best 2 so far), while others I will leave alone, because the people setting the spreads have clearly got a better method than me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr onemore Posted January 30, 2005 Share Posted January 30, 2005 Re: Value? I mentioned this in the 'Other Sports' thread last night - coudn't believe it... Just seen on Betfair that someone has backed England to lose the toss, £1000 @ 1.88 :loon Has drifted to 1.98 now - better hurry lads :ok I had no idea that anyone actually bets on this...btw, England won the toss... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted January 30, 2005 Author Share Posted January 30, 2005 Re: Value? Definitely no value in that :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted January 30, 2005 Share Posted January 30, 2005 Re: Value? Value is found when you can get something for less than what it's actually worth. Suppose you are walking around on an antiques market and you see a nice little painting on offer for 100€. Now knowing a bit about paintings you know that you could sell that painting to your local antiques dealer for at least 120€. Buying the painting means you have found a value deal. Buying the painting with the intention to sell it but without knowing for howmuch you can sell it is... stupid, i would say. The key frase here is : knowing a bit about paintings If you don't know how can you determine the right price ? Same applies in sports betting. The true value of the outcome of a match is given by the probability of that outcome happening. If you can get a price that is better than the one indicated by the probability you have found value. Key frase here is : given by the probability You have got to know a bit about sports to determine the probability. The question that started this thread assumes the reader knows value so won't go into details. You cannot make profit without understanding value and using it. I look for it on football favourites, works well. Will be applying it to horse racing soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted January 30, 2005 Share Posted January 30, 2005 Re: Value? What are you trying to find out from this thread Osesame? When I am looking for value, I am looking for situations where I feel the chance of a given event occurring is greater than those suggested by the odds available. Basically I am looking for events that the bookies/other punters have over-priced. Understanding the concept of value and actually obtaining value are obviously two different things but I have found that following my perceived value has made my betting profitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted January 31, 2005 Author Share Posted January 31, 2005 Re: Value? Norfolk. I'm not sure what I am trying to find out.What I am concerned about is that many people may be just using their "gut feeling" to assess value,which is doomed to failure.How often do you see the phase " The odds for team x are 9.2 there must be some value there"? No mention of the likely overound that needs to be taken into account either. This topic is really to get a discussion going,and to help others. There has not exactly been a flood of replies saying that finding value has made betting profitable! Data. I did not intend that the original question should imply that any punter would fully understand the concept of value. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- There is also a concept of creating value at which Danny Cash seems very adept with his correct scores. I think it might be worthwhile to apply this to the matches which would be within the winning ranges of Spain and Belgium as shown in http://www.punterslounge.com/showthread.php?t=12017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted January 31, 2005 Author Share Posted January 31, 2005 Re: Value? One other table that is of interest. matcheswinsst.ratereturnsprofit yield%Belgium866272%96.710.712.44Spain1077267.3116.669.669Eng prem1106559.1103.46.66 Header row did not paste. This is for blanket betting all odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Puntz Posted January 31, 2005 Share Posted January 31, 2005 Re: Value? It took me a while to understand the concept of "value". The more I read about it from various contributors, the more it made sense. It took time though. Once it was understood, the basic principle, you can apply it possibly to almost anything, not just for making bet decisons. For example,let's say your time at work, what is it worth for what you do and the knowledge you have aquired over time to do the work ? (Expirience) Are you being paid the right amount, are you being over paid or underpaid ? So if a employer has to decide on let's say 5 new prospective employees, the employer would first ask for a resume ("The Formguide") The employer will hire ( Bet) the prospective employee who can do the work required (Win) for the "better" wages( Dividends) to pay at the end of the week. It depends on the assesed/assumed ability (The Resume/Formguide) for/against the going price/salary. Or, What is the value to the employer, to pay the employee, based on the employee's assesed/assumed ability to perform the required task ? If the employee was to employ someone of executive level,surely the price of the salary would rise (Class). ( In this case with horse racing, the price might drop,(Demand). Or, It may also depend on the value YOU price FROM the assesed expected performance. (Ratings), so convert your ratings to prices and make comparisons,then limit that comparison against the average market price to then make a bet or no bet decision) Will you pay the price of your *time* if an employer pays too low, or will you bet the price of the runner if too low,knowing it can do the task/win ? (value for effort) and if an oversight by who ever is paying, perhaps they will pay a little more than the average current odds, then it is "value" also. If they pay you a salary more than what you are worth, then you are getting "value" for your time. My hurried interpretation if it helps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr onemore Posted January 31, 2005 Share Posted January 31, 2005 Re: Value? There is also a concept of creating value at which Danny Cash seems very adept with his correct scores. Surely you can't create value, unless there is already value in the book. Granted you can skew the outcomes - put a bit more emphasis on one outcome, but this at the expense of another outcome. Another point - I totally agree with your earlier post about how flippantly some punters talk about a bet seeming 'good value' - ok, some people have good judgement, and experience counts some too, but I wonder how many punters formulate their own odds for a market before looking to see what the bookies have set. It's a discipline to be able to go a long period and see how good one's own judgement is on this basis - and it's almost impossible, and probably unwise, not to take on board others opinions, before coming to a decision about the odds of a bet - but one opinion to avoid must surely be the bookies odds until you've set your own. After this, value would be apparent, after all, if you make your own book, there will be a value bet to be found in every situation (unless your own book lie entirely within the bookies overround). Rather than giving a bet strength, or confidence level in a bet, I suppose punters should give their own valuation of the odds - a much more professional approach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAULM03 Posted January 31, 2005 Share Posted January 31, 2005 Re: Value? That's not a bad idea at all mr. onemore. I must admit to being a bit slapdash when it comes to deciding value, i've tried to be more disciplined, do more research, set my own odds etc. but for me it takes a lot of fun out of just forming an opinion on one teams chances over another. I also agree that you can't create value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oddsfellow Posted January 31, 2005 Share Posted January 31, 2005 Re: Value? Long term winning punters bet at value odds. Long term losing punters bet at poor value odds. To me it is as clearcut as that. If you can consistently get odds for a selection that are above its chance (pre-event) of actually occuring in the long run you will be a winning punter. Mr Onemeore makes the very valid point about needing to formulate odds in order to know what value is and to be honest i wouldn't contemplate a serious bet without doing so. Last season there was a mini-league on PL were competitors submitted their odds for the forthcoming prem league matches which were then tested against the bookies for reliability. Many performed better than the bookies, albeit over a small sample and just goes to show the benefit of such an exercise. An example of my belief in the value approach came on Saturday. I have two types of bet, the serious ones based on my own odds and my small interest bets placed on hunches. On Saturday i thought Southampton would turn over Pompey in the Cup. My forecast odds had Southampton 2.50, the draw 3.45 and Pompey at 3.10 (101% book). I logged on to betfair and Pompey were trading at 4.00! This was a cup game, local derby, Southampton are at the wrong end of the table, personal history between managers and players.... the odds just looked wrong and i couldn't see any circumstances were pompey should be 4.00. So i did a complete about turn and backed Pompey as a serious bet even though i initially thought the Saints would win. That is what value backing is all about, not necessarily backing the one who has the best chance of winning but the one whose odds are furthest away from its chance of winning. Of course Pompey lost and my hunch was right, but i know in the long run i will win more than i lose by taking this approach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted February 1, 2005 Author Share Posted February 1, 2005 Re: Value? Yes of course you are correct in saying you can't actually create value.What I do believe is that you can find better value by creative betting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipstar Posted February 1, 2005 Share Posted February 1, 2005 Re: Value? On Saturday i thought Southampton would turn over Pompey in the Cup. My forecast odds had Southampton 2.50' date= the draw 3.45 and Pompey at 3.10 (101% book). I logged on to betfair and Pompey were trading at 4.00! This was a cup game, local derby, Southampton are at the wrong end of the table, personal history between managers and players.... the odds just looked wrong and i couldn't see any circumstances were pompey should be 4.00. So i did a complete about turn and backed Pompey as a serious bet even though i initially thought the Saints would win. So surely laying the draw would have been the "value" bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oddsfellow Posted February 1, 2005 Share Posted February 1, 2005 Re: Value? I see what you are saying Tipstar but the odds for the draw were about fair. The Southampton Lay was the alternative option as they represented poor value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MISTER MEAKER Posted February 5, 2005 Share Posted February 5, 2005 Re: Value? Let's suppose that you create a set of odds for each game played. If you are setting the same overound for each match, should it be the case that there would be 'value' in backing at least one of the three outcomes ? If this is the case, there is an argument in betting in every game - is there not ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr onemore Posted February 6, 2005 Share Posted February 6, 2005 Re: Value? Let's suppose that you create a set of odds for each game played. If you are setting the same overound for each match, should it be the case that there would be 'value' in backing at least one of the three outcomes ? If this is the case, there is an argument in betting in every game - is there not ? Yes! Unless, as I say above, your estimations fall entirely inside the bookies overround. (Do not overround your own estimations!!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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