Jump racing ~ Thursday 22nd March

[Stevet1859]

5:05 Fontwell: Saskompliq 1pt win 100/30 Paddy Power The system of backing horses switching to Lawney Hill has not worked so well lately. However Saskompliq could change that. He has run respectably without setting the world alight since arriving from France. Saskompliq has chase experience from the other side of The Channel and has dropped ten pounds since his arrival. With respect to Matt Hazell he has only trained one winner in the past five seasons so there should be scope for some improvement now Saskompliq joins Mrs Hill. The race has cut up and Saskompliq could go well.

[Lars]

Re: Jump racing ~ Thursday 22nd March KAYBEEW (16:05) is much too big a price here today especially as you can excuse his last two efforts for any number of reasons, and he still looks on a good mark on his two runs in the latter part of 2011. With plenty to suit today, he should run a big race as the outsider of this small-field. He took to the bigger obstacles immediately, winning well on fencing debut back in November off a mark of 111, that was on soft ground and it was a game success from the front. Put up 5lbs for that, he ran well behind a progressive mud-lark, still shaping that he was better than his current rating. He’s now 2lbs lower in the weights than that, that’s due to two sub-standard efforts. The first of these came in a very competitive Newbury handicap, where he was held-up and I’m not entirely sure that suits. His last effort came over 3m5f and although he might not have stayed, the quicker ground on that occasion could well have caught him out, along with the step up in grade. He’s back to a very workable rating now quite quickly and he has plenty to suit today. Firstly, the softer conditions will be of benefit as all his best efforts have come with cut in the ground. The six-runner field won’t be any bother too, as his record in single-figure fields is 112. He is top-weight in this field against some rivals carrying hardly anything at all, but he still looks much better than a horse rated 114. This is a pretty poor race with plenty in this field that don’t win often and I’m expecting Kaybeew to relish the drop in grade, the softer conditions and the single figure field, all which are in his favour and this price looks ridiculous. He should be around the 4/1 mark and is worthy of a fair bet here today. Bets 16:05 Carlisle – Kaybeew; 3pts @ 8/1 Bet365, BetVictor, Ladbrokes (bog)