Jump Racing - Saturday 17th March

[StuSimmy]

15:20 Uttoxeter Strongly fancy Posh Bird in this race, I feel there is plenty in her favour. Firstly she has been fairly consistent and progressive over fences having won once and finished 2nd/3rd a further 7 times from 12 attempts. She was also brought down on one other occasion. Her best effort to date was LTO having finished 2nd in a class 2 race at Newcastle last month. That race was over a similar trip that she tackles today and although the form of that race hasn't been franked, she did finish 11 lengths clear of 3rd place and was in behind an in form rival who is now rated 134. Raised 5lb for that run but Lucy Alexander takes off that 5lbs with her claim. This is her first try in listed company but with conditions and trip to suit and the fact she has a lightweight to contend with then she's certainly in with a big chance. This will only be her 5th run for Peter Niven but she has certainly excelled under his trainership having finished 4122 in four races so far. I was impressed with Gary Moore's Ballyfoy last week at Sandown and really thought he was going to get up to win but the short run in didn't help. It also looked like he can stay a longer trip but he hasn't won over 3 miles and he hasn't really impressed when tackling longer trips in the past so his stamina would be a concern tackling an extra 8-9 furlongs today. Posh Bird E/W @ 9/1 (Bet365 - BOG) As a side note to this I do find it interesting that today's Gold Cup winner finished 3rd in this race last year!

[mowgli77]

Re: Jump Racing - Saturday 17th March Beau Dandy 4.50pm Newcastle Has only raced twice over fences, form tied in with Sammy The Spiderman would make this about 4lb well in in my opinion, check the formline with the horse Beau Dandy beat last time out by a mile called Mr Woods too. Betfair are currently betting to 111% but not much cash placed on the race so far, mostly my money at around 4.2 for Beau Dandy. My tissue prices are as follows: [TABLE=class: grid borderGrid notesGrid]

[TR] [TD=class: first]Badger Foot[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]8/1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: separator, colspan: 3][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: first] Or De Grugy[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]25/1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: separator, colspan: 3][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: first] Playing The Field[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]7/1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: separator, colspan: 3][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: first] Isla Pearl Fisher[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]6/1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: separator, colspan: 3][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: first] Lutin Du Moulin[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]25/1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: separator, colspan: 3][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: first] Beau Dandy[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]3/1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: separator, colspan: 3][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: first] Definite Appeal[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]6/1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: separator, colspan: 3][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: first] Dollar Mick[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]9/1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] I think this one looks progressive enough to be even better than a mark about 4lb higher but it does lack experience and Ballyoliver has let the form down twice. The rest look a much of a muchness, Isla Pearl Fisher is the RP spotlight selection but I think the main danger could be Definite Appeal. My selection was a 5 length winner over a staying trip last time out but on gd-sft. Hoping ground isn't a problem, hard to tell at this early stage but it has been 3rd on good ground. Only 7 yr old and plenty of scope for improvement. Has been on my list of horses to follow and waited for this to run.