bowles10 Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 I've always found day 1 the hardest to tie down a winner, i've had arkle winners before but the Supreme and Champion hurdles always seem to beat me with my final selections All prices were taken at around midday today, i also publish these on my website and also on twitter @tip4profit Cheltenham Day 1 Race 1 Supreme novices hurdle Key Trends 13/15 winners having won LTO 14/15 ran in Jan (3) or Feb (11)other winner ran in Nov. 13/15 had at least 3 runs thatseason. 14/15 had at least 2 wins thatseason 12/15 had ran 4 times or less thatseason. 4/14 Favs 8/14 Irish trained 1. Reducing the field Take the best 3 stats from above, LTO Jan / Feb, 1st LTO, & 2 wins thisseason leaves us with: Agent archie, Cinders & ashes, Divapour, Felix younger, Galileos choice, Midnight game, Monksland, Montbazon, Tetlami,Trifolium, Irish trained horses must be kept on side as they have a good record (boldabove) The main profile is 3-4 runs and LTO in Feb which leaves us with: Cinders & ashes, Divapour, Felix younger,Montbazon, Tetlami 2. Consider the main contenders An open looking race with no stand out favourite this year. The main trainersdo well in this race and Henderson at present has 4 possibles includingfavourite Darlan who fell LTO when going well in the Tote Trophy race won byChampion Hurdle 3rd fav Zarkandar. Willie Mullins has 6 currentlystill in the race and should be feared as he targets this meeting now in alltypes of races. The Cheltenham bumperform had not been a good trend however Al Ferof turned that on its head lastyear by storming up the hill. This yearwe have Cinders & ashes (4th), Ericht (5th) FelixYounger (21st) . The favourite Darlan has the dreaded F as LTOhowever i personally feel he would have beaten Zarkandar had he stood up that day so its form should be respected.Galileos choice has only race on heavy ground this season but does have form onfaster and is a former group class horse on the flat. A few horses comeinto the race unbeaten – Agent archie for D McCain, done nothing wrong in 2wins to date but profile of the race prefers 3-4 runs so inexperience may tell.Divapour from France is a big price and has won 3 on the spin, a bit of anunknown this one. 3. Other factors Average win odds for this race are over 12/1 for the last 10 years whichincluded a 20/1 & 40/1 winner. Even last year Al Ferof landed the spoils at10/1 for Nicholls and Walsh. 4. Final analysis I ignored the winnerlast year on the bumper stat but will keep it in this year as Cinders &ashes does look capable of winning this race after its recent efforts. It alsohas ran at Cheltenham twice on the level, only concern is the 4 runs thisseason all over flat tracks for some reason. Divapour comes over from Franceand i will have a second look but at 40/1 and no one talking about it, it couldjust be one of the also rans. FelixYounger came out of Howard Johnson stable at end of last season and joinedMullins, last win was a gr 2 novice hurdle and not without a chance at a bigprice. Ruby has ridden it this season but unlikely to on Tuesday. Montbazon accounted for Vulcanite LTO anddeserves to be in the shake up for Alan King who has hit top form in Feb/Mar.Tetlami is m idea of the winner here meets all the trends and also turned overVulcanite however gave that horse 5lbs which should mean it can beat Montbazon.Hasn’t had a prep run over hurdles but Henderson took advantage of the Kemptonbumper races to keep it going. 5.Bets [TABLE=class: cms_table_MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD]TETLAMI[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]5PTS EW[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]14/1[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]BET365[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]FELIX YOUNGER[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]5PTS EW[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]25/1[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]SKYBET (1st 5)[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Race 2 - Arkle chase KeyTrends 10/15 won LTO 15/15 won or placed LTO 13/15 last ran Jan / Feb 13/15 won by 2nd, 3rd or 4th inbetting behind favourite 1/15 won by favourite 5/15 French bred 6/15 5 - 6yo 12/15 more than 2 runs thatseason 12/15 2 or more wins that season 14/15 5 or less runs that season 1. Reducing the field Concentrating on the main trends, won orplaced LTO, Jan/Feb last run, won by 2nd-4th in betting, 2 or more wins & 5or less runs in the season. Taking the horses that ran in Jan/Feb LTO and were 1st or placed LTO, we haveleft: Al Ferof, Cristal bonus, Cue card, KidCassidy, Sprinter sacre 2 or more wins and a lightly raced sort is thenext cut off, which leaves: the same 5 named!! 2. Consider the main contenders Top rated hurdlers normally run well in this which gives Menorah and Cue card asqueak rated 150+ The hot favourite is Sprinter Sacre 3rdin the Supreme last year behind Al Ferof. They meet again to contend this raceand owner of Al Ferof has already stated this will be last run over 2m. The keywill be how the race is run as SS could get it all its own way and be too farahead come the final climb up the hill. Al Ferofs recent run in top company isdecent form whereas SS has only beaten handicappers to date although smashedthe course record at Newbury an possibly would have beaten anyone on that day.Cheltenham will be different though. Henderson loves racing his Cheltenhampossible in February but i would have liked maybe a stiffer test for thefavourite LTO to be able to judge it. 3. Other factors 2nd-4th in the betting is significant here as outsiders just don’t win but thefav has a very poor record also. 4. Final analysis The fav does have a poor record and it is close between 3, i don’t thinkCristal bonus runs so i would have to be on Al Ferof and Cue Card against thefavourite 5. Bets [TABLE=class: cms_table_MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD]AL FEROF[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]10PTS WIN[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]11/4[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]SPORTING BET[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]CUE CARD[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]10PTS WIN[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]7/1[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]CORAL[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Race 3 JLT Chase Key trends 15/15 Class 3 race LTO or better 15/15 Best win Class 3 or better 14/15 10+ plus career runs 14/15 Aged 7 to 10 12/15 Jan/Feb LTO 13/15 23f+ win 14/15 2-5 runs this season 14/15 Wins / Runs 20% or betterin whole career 11/15 10st 11lb or less 12/15 4+ course runs 1/15 Favs 1/15 over 11st 2lb 1. Reducing the field The trends here are very strong and we cannarrow the field now with the help of the main trends,leaving us with: Taking the age trend 7-10 we remove: Noland,Mon Mome, Mount Oscar, runshan, Le burf (5) Wins to runs 20% or better, we remove: Arbor supreme, Leanne, Tullamore dew, Divers,Tharawaat, The Package, Charingworth, Major malarkey, Riquez dancer, Definite dawn. Pentific, Free world,Marescuo, Ballyvesey (14) 10+ career runs removes: Cappa Bleu, Hold on Julio, Summery justice (3) Best win class 3 or higher removes: BAile Anrai (1) Remove those above 11st 2lb which removes: Hectors choice, Noland, Cannington brook,Walkon, Time for Rupert, Quantativeeasing (6) The favoured final profile has to be the 4+course runs as horses are often campaigned here in previous years. This leavesthe following: Matuhi, Billie Magern, Consigliere (Mossleyhad 3 runs at the track) 2. Consider the main contenders We should look at those horse that run well at the course and have 1-2 as lasttime out. Quantattiveasing Cheltenhamwin at Cheltenham was December was a great effort but worrying hasn’t been outsince and hasn’t won over 23f+ either. Time for Rupert has won here 3 times andsidesteps the Gold cup to go for this race after not quite excelling thisseason. Not sure it can carry this weight around here against the handicapfield. Hold on Julio is very lightly raced which doesn’t suit this race so novalue with that one for me. The Package would have been laid out for this raceby Pipe but it’s very difficult to come here without a run although i assume that’sthe trick with this horse. 3. Other factors Wichita Lineman was the 1st winning favourite for over 10 years in 2009. 4. Final analysis The trends are saying Billie Magern or Consigliere and my concern about thehorses at the top of the weights is the 1 from 15 stat over 11st 2lb and theother negative trends against them. 5. Bets [TABLE=class: cms_table_MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD]BILLIE MAGERN[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]5PTS EW[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]33/1[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]SKYBET[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]CONSIGLIERE[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]5PTS EW[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]33/1[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]SKYBET[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Race 4 - Champion Hurdle Key trends 13/15 won last time out with the othersfinishing 2nd & 3rd 11/15 won a graded race LTO (5 @Gr1, 3 @ Gr2 & 2@ Gr3) 15/15 ran LTO in Jan or Feb 5/15 won AIG champion hurdle in Irelandbefore the festival 10/15 had 4 or more runs in the season 12/15 had previous festival form 9/15 had won at a previous festival 13/15 were aged 6 to 8 12/15 were priced 10/1 or lower 1/15 were 5yo (Katchit) 8/15 were irish trained 6/15 were favs 1. Reducing the field The LTO stat again would appear to be key, horses that finished in the 1st 3LTO. This removes Brampour, Olofi The Jan/Feb stat would remove Overturn andRock on ruby Previous festival form and ages 6-8 are 2 stats to consider also leaving:Binocular, Celestial Halo, Hurricane fly, Oscars well, Thousand stars, Zaidpour 2. Consider the main contenders Hurricane Fly proved last year to be a worthy champion and its preparation thisyear seems to be have been well planned only missing 1 possible engagement butwon LTO easily in the Irish Champion Hurdle. Against it we have a 5yo Zarkandar who won the Tote Trophy at Newburylast month when slightly under par however at 11/2, and 5yo’s have a poorrecord with only Katchit winning in over 30 years. Previous champion Binocular appears again andwill have favoured fast ground, this horse is the fastest hurdler i have seenover the last few years and its performance LTO was very clinical and a perfectprep for this race. Henderson will have this spot on i feel. 3. Other factors Prior to last year, the last 4 winners were priced at 22/1, 10/1, 9/1 &8/1. The fly was available at 11/2 before being backed into 11/4 on the day.This year the fly is odds on and only Binocular comes close this year to takeit on 4. Final analysis The Fly should win but i make it a 6/4 chance and Binocular 7/2, so withHenderson’s horse looking a cert ew on the card, and available at 9/2, i willtake on the fly. 5. Bets [TABLE=class: cms_table_MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD]BINOCULAR[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]10PTS WIN[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]5/1[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]CORAL[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 Consigliere and Felix Yonger do not run leaving it a bit bare for the 1st day. I'm toying with adding in Cinders and Ashes as that horse impressed me this season and should be thereabouts. will update in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodie Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 ALl the best this week mate, will be following this thread closeley especially for the handicaps!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 cheers mate, i'm on twitter as well @tip4profit if you follow yep i do like the handicaps, i feel i need another in that JLT chase tomorrow so may be adding one of the others that met most of the trends once i take another look I've also had a go at the last race in the bets thread i run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oddsfellow Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 Thanks Bowles look forward to your analysis every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 Best of luck for the week Bowles :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bartrum Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 Looking at cinders and ashes and rock on ruby, they both fell down with not running within 45 and 51 days respectively.. I wonder because of the bad weather etc that stat maybe misleading this year?? Still backed cinders though which was a result!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 13, 2012 Author Share Posted March 13, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 Looking at cinders and ashes and rock on ruby' date=' they both fell down with not running within 45 and 51 days respectively.. I wonder because of the bad weather etc that stat maybe misleading this year?? Still backed cinders though which was a result!!![/quote'] yes, i should have put it in reading my write up but was swayed by the fact it had only been campaigned on flat tracks this year and i was left with only 1 horse so could have added it. Annoyed i didnt!! Bilie Magern ran ok for 5th, some bookies did pay 1st 5 home. Will keep that one on side for next year again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bartrum Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 Good luck for the rest of the wk!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 13, 2012 Author Share Posted March 13, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 5 bets in total Tetlami unpl Al ferof 4th Cue card 2nd Billie Magern 5th Binocular 4th -50pts Back later with tomorrow's trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cantspell Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 cheers bowles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 13, 2012 Author Share Posted March 13, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 Wednesday trends for Cheltenham Hoping for better from these tomorrow Day2 Race 1 National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup Keytrends 13/151st or 2nd over 3m (chase) 12/151st 4 LTO 13/154+ times over fence 13/154+ runs in season 12/15aged 7-9 2/15Favs 5/1525/1 SP or higher 4+ runs in the season &1st 4 LTO firstly leaves us with: Alfie spinner, Ailee Garde,Blenheim b rook, Court red handed, Fourcommanders, Harry the Viking, Iron chancellor, Lively baron, State benefit,Teaforthree, Our Victoria. 1st or 2nd over 3m (chase)is another key stat leaving the same except State Benefit Aged 7-9 removes Fourcommanders 6yo 4+ runs over fences leavesAlfie spinner, Blenheim brook, Court red handed, Iron chancellor, Livelybaron, Teaforthree, Our victoria 2.Consider the main contenders Harry the Viking has won all4 races this term for Paul Nicholls however hasn’t raced since December and hasnever raced on this type of track either. Alle Garde has raced only 3 timesover fences and i prefer the profile of the winner normally that has 4+. Hasn’tdone enough for me to warrant such a short price. Alfie spinner would need more cut in theground but does stay well. 3.Other factors As with other Cheltenhamraces, course form can manage the field down a bit as well. Tea for three is the onlyone that has course form and also ran quite well last year as a hurdler behindBobs worth. 4.Final analysis 2 trends i always like tohave on my side are LTO win and a decent course run. The nearest horse to meet that trend is Teaforthree 5.Bets [TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] TEAFORTHREE [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 10PTS WIN [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 7/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] STAN JAMES [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] 2.05 Neptune Novices Hurdle Keytrends 15/15Won or placed LTO 14/151st or 2nd LTO 14/15top 6 in betting 15/15Jan or Feb LTO 14/15age 5 or 6 11/15won LTO 10of last 12 ran in graded company LTO 1.Reducing the field Take LTO 1st/2nd aged 5 or6 & LTO in Jan Feb. This leaves thefollowing Batonnier, Bennefficient,Brass tax, Cotton mill, Felix yonger, Make your mark, Monksland, Nagpur, Nelsons bridge, Simonsig, Sous lescieux, The tracey shuffle. Take out the rags in termsof prices removes Benefficient, Brasstax, Close house, Felix yonger, Nagpur, Nelsons bridge, The Tracey Shuffle Graded company looks thebest final method of choosing final selections so this leaves Batonnier, CottonMill, Make your mark, Monksland, Sous le cieux. 2.Consider the main contenders Simonsig didn’t run in agraded event LTO and was beaten into 2nd by Fingal Bay when it didtackle a graded event. Sous Les Cieuxdisappointed LTO and is rated 3lbs inferior to the favourite. Monksland has done nothing wrong to datedespite only racing on soft / heavy all season. Cotton Mill is a former flat horse who has won all 3 races to date forJohn Ferguson. 3.Other factors Henderson has never won thisrace 4.Final analysis Of those left, Monkslandlooks worth keeping in and Batonnier has the course form which should always beconsidered. There are enough negativesin the trends to avoid the favourite here which looks a bit short. 5.Bets [TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] MONKSLAND [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 10PTS WIN [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 11/2 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] HILLS [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] BATONNIER [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 10PTS WIN [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 8/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] CORAL [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] 2.35 Royal & SA Chase Keytrends 15/151st or 2nd LTO 10/13rated 134 or lower over hurdles 15/15ran jan / feb LTO 14/153-5 runs this season 13/15NH bred 4/15Favs 2/15unbeaten over fences 1.Reducing the field LTO stats rule again andthe 3-5 runs is significant with horses having had a reasonably busy campaignas it is difficult to lay a horse out for this race. This removes: Benbane Head, FirstLieutenant, Gift of dgab, Lambro,Mossley, Me Moonshine, Saint are, Walkon All remaining horses are NHbred so this leaves the following: Bobs worth, Bog warrior,Call the police, Cannington brook, Grand crus, Join together, sire des champs 2.Consider the main contenders For me it’s key to have hada run in Jan / Feb and this would rule out the likely favourite Grand Crus whohasn’t been seen since the Kempton xmas meeting. They missed a possible routevia Newbury and may pay for it. Bobsworth ran here 3 times last season and won all 3, surprised they haven’t trieda chase here rather than the tracks they targeted. Ran into a decent sort inInvictus LTO at Ascot, but i’m notconvinced by its jumping at the moment as did make a mistake at ascot whichwill be punished here. Bog warriorhasn’t raced on ground this fast before and may be found out over this longertrip. Join together likes it here butagain hasn’t raced since December, we also know it stays the trip unlike othersin the field. Sir Des Champs is the oneto watch after winning at the festival last year and should be respected fromMullins stable. Should get the 3m trip. 3.Other factors 9 of the last 11 winnerswere aged 7, this is from 65 runs and 8yo’s have won 1 from 27 runs. 4.Final analysis Following the trends, iwould have Bobs worth and Join Together topping the list especially as unbeatenchasers don’t seem to have a great record either. 5.Bets [TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] BOBS WORTH [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 10PTS WIN [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 100/30 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] SKYBET [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] JOIN TOGETHER [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 10PTS WIN [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 13/2 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] PADDY POWER [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Champion Chase KeyTrends 8/11Won LTO 7/11Top 2 in betting 8/11Won at the festival 10/11Ran LTO within 2 months 4/11Favs 11/11French or Irish bred 10/11Under 11/1 SP Remove Gauvain, I'm solucky, Wishful thinking as neither areIRE or FR bred. Remove Relat Dubh as hasn’t raced for ages. Won LTO is always a stat i follow whichleaves Sizing Europe, Somersby and Blazing tempo to fight this one out. Finnans Rainbow should be respected thoughhaving finished 2nd to Captain Chris in the Arkle last year. Ran well behind Somersby LTO at Ascot andthere won’t be much between those two. Sizing Europe has a standout record here 1-0-1-1 with only defeat in the champion hurdle when somethingwent amiss during the race. Bets [TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] SIZING EUROPE [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 10PTS WIN [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 10/11 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] BET365 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] 4.0 Coral Cup Keytrends 13/15top two thirds of h'cap 12/155-8 yo 12/153+ runs in the season 11/15Jan / feb LTO 8/151st LTO 1/15fav 1.Reducing the field For a handicap the stat of1st LTO still figures highly as does a recent run Those in the top two thirds of the handicapare key to this race. Firstly only look at thetop two thirds, so that’s everything with 10st 2lb upwards, leaves us withhorses 1-19. The 3+ runs and 5-8yo is the next to consider leaves us with Getme out of here, Third intention, Featherbed lane, Final approach, Golan way,Stoenmaster, Tenor Nivernais, First fandango, Saphir river, Megastar, Ballylegend, Consigliere ok, let’s keep to theJan/Feb LTO stat to leave a final shortlist, leaves: Get me out of here, Third intention,Featherbed lane, Final approach, Tenor Nivernais, Megastar, Bally legend,Consigliere 2.Consider the main contenders Get me out of here has beentouched off twice at the festival by short heads and should be feared despitetop weight. Been lightly raced again this season but has the required 3 runs,and proved his liking for the course by taking Oscar whisky close. CarlitoBrigante won this last year off 16lb lower so would be a big ask to improve towin this again off this higher mark. Third intention and Final approach are both festival winners also whowarrant respect. Balgarry gets in at thefoot of the handicap and could be anything having hacked up on poor ground LTO. 3.Other factors to consider LTO winners have a decentreturn here with 8 from last 15 winners coming from that bracket. All of the last 11 winners had won at leastonce in last 4 races. 4.Final analysis Taking all the trends intoaccount, leaves Third Intention, Final approach, Featherbed lane, TenorNivernais, Bally Legend and Consigliere. All 5 are worth considering in a typical open handicap however thehigher weights tend not to win so will take the 3 lower weighted horses, all ofwhich have Cheltenham form in their locker and 2 of them have festival form(tenor Nivernais and Consigliere) 5.Bets [TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] TENOR NIVERNAIS [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 5PTS EW [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 33/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] SKYBET [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] CONSIGLIERE [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 5PTS EW [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 33/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] BET365 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] BALLY LEGEND [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 5PTS EW [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 40/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] CORAL [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] 4.40 Fred Winter Hcap Hurdle 3/7French Breds 7/7Ran LTO Feb/Mar 5/71st LTO 6/73 or more runs 3/7Exactly 3 runs 6/7OR 120+ 6/7Weight under 11st 4lb 3/7Weight under 11st 3/7Favs (was joint) 7 runnings of the race to date but some cleartrends coming through now. LTO stats match up with most of the Cheltenhamraces. Looking for something gaining at least 120 OR & had 3 or more runsand ran Feb/Mar LTO & won LTO. This whittles it down to 4 contenders. Edeymi Kaqba de cerisy Royal Bonsai Lemon drop lad We have to go by the weightstat as over 80% of winners have carried less than 11st 4lb which rules out the1st 2 named. Bets [TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] ROYAL BONSAI [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 5PTS EW [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 14/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] PADDY POWER [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] LEMON DROP LAD [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 5PTS EW [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 20/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] BET365 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 Good luck Rob:ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oddsfellow Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 Couple of nice winners today, well done mate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 14, 2012 Author Share Posted March 14, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 2 winners today 7/1 adv and 9/2 SP (best price) 100pts staked 135pts returned still hope for better tomorrow but thanks for the comments :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 14, 2012 Author Share Posted March 14, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 Day 3 Race 2 - 2.05 Pertemps Final Keytrends 14/15 aged 6-9 13/15 ran over 26 days ago 12/15 won over 3m or further 13/15 carried 11st 2lb or less 8/15 won LTO 2/15 favs Highest RPR in 10 years is 154. Only 1 winner from 53 horses whowere placed LTO over 10 years 1. Reducing the field Age stat & the LTO since last run stat & the weight are those to lookat first Retain: Russian war, Rick, Sargent guibs, Sir Kezbaah, Cape tribulation,Sonofvic, Pineau de re, Across the bay, Palace jester, cantflow, Barwellbridge, thehillsofusineach, Prince erik, Scotsbrook cloud, Belfflower boy. . Those who have won over 3m are : Sir Kezbaah, Cape tribulation, Sonofvic,Across the bay, Palace jester, Thehillsofusineach, Prince erik, scotsbrookcloud, bellflower boy. Remove cantflow who ran recently on the LTO stat. 2. Consider the main contenders Ourfather could be anything but has beenwell touted for this race. Hasn’t ran since December and done all winning onsoft ground, and hasn’t faced a Cheltenham type course yet. Stable companion Buena Vista could make it a hat trickof wins if in the same form as last year, loves the track and this time ofyear. The hillsofusineach ran up asequence earlier but got stuck in the mud at Haydock LTO and may find thistough off same mark. Prince Erik was2nd in this 2 years ago and runs off same mark, has also been backedin the ante post markets. Sonofvic couldbe interesting coming back to hurdling from an unsuccessful novice chasecampaign. 3. Other factors to consider Buena vista has won the last 2years and is 3lb lower than last year with the 10lb claim from the jockey.9yo’s over last 10 years have produced 3 winners from only 19 runners. 3. Final analysis Finishing off the trends, it willplay to retain 9yo’s and ignore those who placed LTO, Bellflower boy is a 9yo and haswon LTO, however last won off 117, and has to lump round 15lb more in this.Prince erik was 2nd here 2 years ago and could go well ifreproducing that form although Weld is 0 from 12 here however only comes with afew as prefers Punchestown and Galway. Buena Vista’s jock takes off a handy10lb making it 3lb lower than when winning this race last year. To do it againat 11yo would be a feat. Sir Kezbaah has a course and distance win here thisseason and could go well at a nice price. Sonofvic is another and from theNicholls stable however trainer doesn’t have a great record in the race. McCainhas 2 winners this year to date but Across the bay will do well to win off thishigher mark. Russian war hasn’t raced since October however is on a mark thatstands out for me in a race where others will struggle. 4. Bets [TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] SIR KEZBAAH [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 5PTS EW [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 25/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] BOYLES 1ST 5 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] RUSSIAN WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 5PTS EW [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 33/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] BOYLES 1ST 5 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] PRINCE ERIK [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 5PTS EW [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 22/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] BOYLES 1ST 5 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Race 3 - 2.40Ryanair chase 6 runnings of this race so far 7/7 age 6-10 4/7 Sp under 5/1 5/7 won or placed LTO 6/7 Jan/Feb LTO 7/7 Graded race LTO 7/7 2-4 runs in season 7/7 Course winner 1. Reducing the field Course winners aged 6-10 with LTO in a graded race are the key stats so farleaving: Captain Chris, Forpadydeplasterer, Great endeavour, Little josh, Noble Prince,Poquelin The horses that have had 2-4 runs are: all of theabove except Noble Prince (5 runs) Won or placed LTO leaves Poquelinonly as the stand out trend horse. 2. Consider the main contenders Poquelin likes it here and boasts a record of 1-2-1-2-5-1-4-1-U-2 in thelast 3 seasons here. Has started 2/1 and 11/4 in those 2 years yet is muchbigger this year after a more lenient campaign which could pay off. Albertasrun attempts to win the race for a 3rd time but only 1 previous runthis year puts me off a little as was 145 days ago. Great endeavour is quietlyfancied by the Pipe stable but ran poorly LTO, excuse that run and the horse is20lb behind Poquelin in my estimation. Riverside theatre came back to life lasttime at Ascot in a race ideal for it, i’m not sure that this is his trackalbeit was 3rd in the RSA 2 years ago and missed this meeting lastyear through injury. Connections may be concerned to risk it here. Noble Princeshould be able to confirm form with Blazing tempo and could be the one toconsider here. 3. Final analysis Poquelin is the key trend horse if they are to continue, Noble prince is 2ndin and both worth a shout in this. 4. Bets [TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] POQUELIN [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 5PTS EW [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 22/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] BETVICTOR [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] NOBLE PRINCE [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 10PTS WIN [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 6/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] STAN JAMES [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Race 5 -Festival Plate Key trends 15/15 won at class 3 or higher 14/15 carried 10st 12lb or lower 14/15 ran within 40 days 13/15 rated no higher than 141 11/15 12/1 SP or over 13/15 1st 5 LTO 11/15 ran at a previous festival 6/15 1st LTO 5/15 Pipe trained 0/15 irish winners 1/15 Favs 1. Reducing the field some quite strong trends here with the 1st 3 trends leaving this shortlist ofhorses (irish trained horses removed also) Mad Moose, Charingworth, Fine parchment, Gansey, Niceonefrankie, Radetskymarch, Life of a luso, Kilcrea ala. Those in 1st 5 LTO are: Fine Parchment, Gansey, Niceonefrankie, Life of a luso, Kilcrea asla The SP stat could be another reduction factor as can the previous run at thefestival before so: Fine Parchment course form 1-9 (no festivalrun) Ganseycourse form 0-0 (ran 2011) Lifeof a luso course form 3-5 (no festival run) Kilcreaasla course form 4 (no festival run) Avoid Headgear, top 4 in thebetting and top 4 in the weights. 2. Final analysis Those at the top of the weights seem to struggle but can you ignore theHenderson stable and Giorgio Quercus 6th in last year’s arkle isaround 20/1 for this event but does have to run off a career high mark of 152.Only 7yo could have further improvement to come. Salut flo looks as though ithas been laid out for the race after its 12th at the course earlierthis season and no runs since. The trend horses all possibly have a chanceespecially Fine Parchment who has always looked like it has a big race in itand is only 3lb higher than best win. Gansey is 2lb lower than last year whencoming in 12th so i can’t see it winning this. KIlcrea asla wouldcome into it with the jockey claim and will be covered ew 3. Bets [TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] FINE PARCHMENT [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 5PTS EW [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 28/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] BET365 1ST 5 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] KILCREA ASLA [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 5PTS EW [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 50/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] BET365 1ST 5 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 Day 3 Race 2 - 2.05 Pertemps Final Keytrends 14/15 aged 6-9 13/15 ran over 26 days ago 12/15 won over 3m or further 13/15 carried 11st 2lb or less 8/15 won LTO 2/15 favs Highest RPR in 10 years is 154. Only 1 winner from 53 horses whowere placed LTO over 10 years 1. Reducing the field Age stat & the LTO since last run stat & the weight are those to lookat first Retain: Russian war, Rick, Sargent guibs, Sir Kezbaah, Cape tribulation,Sonofvic, Pineau de re, Across the bay, Palace jester, cantflow, Barwellbridge, thehillsofusineach, Prince erik, Scotsbrook cloud, Belfflower boy. . Those who have won over 3m are : Sir Kezbaah, Cape tribulation, Sonofvic,Across the bay, Palace jester, Thehillsofusineach, Prince erik, scotsbrookcloud, bellflower boy. Remove cantflow who ran recently on the LTO stat. 2. Consider the main contenders Ourfather could be anything but has beenwell touted for this race. Hasn’t ran since December and done all winning onsoft ground, and hasn’t faced a Cheltenham type course yet. Stable companion Buena Vista could make it a hat trickof wins if in the same form as last year, loves the track and this time ofyear. The hillsofusineach ran up asequence earlier but got stuck in the mud at Haydock LTO and may find thistough off same mark. Prince Erik was2nd in this 2 years ago and runs off same mark, has also been backedin the ante post markets. Sonofvic couldbe interesting coming back to hurdling from an unsuccessful novice chasecampaign. 3. Other factors to consider Buena vista has won the last 2years and is 3lb lower than last year with the 10lb claim from the jockey.9yo’s over last 10 years have produced 3 winners from only 19 runners. 3. Final analysis Finishing off the trends, it willplay to retain 9yo’s and ignore those who placed LTO, Bellflower boy is a 9yo and haswon LTO, however last won off 117, and has to lump round 15lb more in this.Prince erik was 2nd here 2 years ago and could go well ifreproducing that form although Weld is 0 from 12 here however only comes with afew as prefers Punchestown and Galway. Buena Vista’s jock takes off a handy10lb making it 3lb lower than when winning this race last year. To do it againat 11yo would be a feat. Sir Kezbaah has a course and distance win here thisseason and could go well at a nice price. Sonofvic is another and from theNicholls stable however trainer doesn’t have a great record in the race. McCainhas 2 winners this year to date but Across the bay will do well to win off thishigher mark. Russian war hasn’t raced since October however is on a mark thatstands out for me in a race where others will struggle. 4. Bets [TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD]SIR KEZBAAH[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]5PTS EW[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]25/1[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]BOYLES 1ST 5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]RUSSIAN WAR[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]5PTS EW[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]33/1[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]BOYLES 1ST 5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]PRINCE ERIK[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]5PTS EW[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]22/1[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]BOYLES 1ST 5[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Race 3 - 2.40Ryanair chase 6 runnings of this race so far 7/7 age 6-10 4/7 Sp under 5/1 5/7 won or placed LTO 6/7 Jan/Feb LTO 7/7 Graded race LTO 7/7 2-4 runs in season 7/7 Course winner 1. Reducing the field Course winners aged 6-10 with LTO in a graded race are the key stats so farleaving: Captain Chris, Forpadydeplasterer, Great endeavour, Little josh, Noble Prince,Poquelin The horses that have had 2-4 runs are: all of theabove except Noble Prince (5 runs) Won or placed LTO leaves Poquelinonly as the stand out trend horse. 2. Consider the main contenders Poquelin likes it here and boasts a record of 1-2-1-2-5-1-4-1-U-2 in thelast 3 seasons here. Has started 2/1 and 11/4 in those 2 years yet is muchbigger this year after a more lenient campaign which could pay off. Albertasrun attempts to win the race for a 3rd time but only 1 previous runthis year puts me off a little as was 145 days ago. Great endeavour is quietlyfancied by the Pipe stable but ran poorly LTO, excuse that run and the horse is20lb behind Poquelin in my estimation. Riverside theatre came back to life lasttime at Ascot in a race ideal for it, i’m not sure that this is his trackalbeit was 3rd in the RSA 2 years ago and missed this meeting lastyear through injury. Connections may be concerned to risk it here. Noble Princeshould be able to confirm form with Blazing tempo and could be the one toconsider here. 3. Final analysis Poquelin is the key trend horse if they are to continue, Noble prince is 2ndin and both worth a shout in this. 4. Bets [TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD]POQUELIN[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]5PTS EW[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]22/1[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]BETVICTOR[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]NOBLE PRINCE[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]10PTS WIN[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]6/1[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]STAN JAMES[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Race 5 -Festival Plate Key trends 15/15 won at class 3 or higher 14/15 carried 10st 12lb or lower 14/15 ran within 40 days 13/15 rated no higher than 141 11/15 12/1 SP or over 13/15 1st 5 LTO 11/15 ran at a previous festival 6/15 1st LTO 5/15 Pipe trained 0/15 irish winners 1/15 Favs 1. Reducing the field some quite strong trends here with the 1st 3 trends leaving this shortlist ofhorses (irish trained horses removed also) Mad Moose, Charingworth, Fine parchment, Gansey, Niceonefrankie, Radetskymarch, Life of a luso, Kilcrea ala. Those in 1st 5 LTO are: Fine Parchment, Gansey, Niceonefrankie, Life of a luso, Kilcrea asla The SP stat could be another reduction factor as can the previous run at thefestival before so: Fine Parchment course form 1-9 (no festivalrun) Ganseycourse form 0-0 (ran 2011) Lifeof a luso course form 3-5 (no festival run) Kilcreaasla course form 4 (no festival run) Avoid Headgear, top 4 in thebetting and top 4 in the weights. 2. Final analysis Those at the top of the weights seem to struggle but can you ignore theHenderson stable and Giorgio Quercus 6th in last year’s arkle isaround 20/1 for this event but does have to run off a career high mark of 152.Only 7yo could have further improvement to come. Salut flo looks as though ithas been laid out for the race after its 12th at the course earlierthis season and no runs since. The trend horses all possibly have a chanceespecially Fine Parchment who has always looked like it has a big race in itand is only 3lb higher than best win. Gansey is 2lb lower than last year whencoming in 12th so i can’t see it winning this. KIlcrea asla wouldcome into it with the jockey claim and will be covered ew 3. Bets [TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD]FINE PARCHMENT [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]5PTS EW[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]28/1[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]BET365 1ST 5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]KILCREA ASLA[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]5PTS EW[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]50/1[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]BET365 1ST 5[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The festival plate is the one race where I really do look at weight/ratings trends and I noticed the profile of previous winners is ratings between around 130-140. My main fancy made your shortlist and I was all over it last time out when it fell - Charingworth. It has no Cheltenham form but would surely have won last time out if it hadn't blundered late on. It travelled really well throughout the race and impressed me. I was already counting my winnings as it came to the last fence and if it had won it would have fit another of your trends. Fiddling Ferdy will have this spot on and he's yet to land a big coup this festival. Not sure if you saw its last race but I'd advise you to try catch the replay and give it consideration for this race. Good luck. :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 The festival plate is the one race where I really do look at weight/ratings trends and I noticed the profile of previous winners is ratings between around 130-140. My main fancy made your shortlist and I was all over it last time out when it fell - Charingworth. It has no Cheltenham form but would surely have won last time out if it hadn't blundered late on. It travelled really well throughout the race and impressed me. I was already counting my winnings as it came to the last fence and if it had won it would have fit another of your trends. Fiddling Ferdy will have this spot on and he's yet to land a big coup this festival. Not sure if you saw its last race but I'd advise you to try catch the replay and give it consideration for this race. Good luck. :ok thanks Phil, certainly worth a second look on that one !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 -60pts today with no winners Final day with fingers crossed!! FridayAt Cheltenham 1.30 TriumphHurdle Key trends 13/15 Feb LTO 15/15 raced over 2m 1f or less LTO 14/15 won LTO (1 was disqualified but this counts in the stats) 14/15 won 50%+ of hurdle races 11/15 won at least 2 over hurdles 9/15 3-5 hurdles runs that season 11/15 top4 in betting 3/15 Favs 2/15 Irish trained 1. Reducing the field Some good stats here so 1stcut leaves Asaid, Baby Mix, Balder success, Grumeti, Urban de sivola, Westbrit. The irish struggle with this race however they possibly don’t have as many entriesas the English. There are none above in the final cut. 2. Consider the main contenders Alan King has 2 lively contenders with Balder success and Grumeti. Grumetishould be unbeaten having fallen at Newbury at the last when well clear. Pearlswan took it to the line here at Cheltenham but was adjudged to have bumped iton the run in and Grumeti was awarded the race. Hollow tree was 3rdin that race and won’t be far away again. Balder success hacked up at ascot onrain softened ground however as Thornton had the choice, he has given anindication of which is better by choosing Grumeti. Pearl swan has only had the1 race like Zarkandar did last year and should be feared also after headingGrumeti at Cheltenham. Sadlers risk and shadow catcher are both under 10/1 butwere flat horses and i do prefer the NH breds at Cheltenham. Baby Mix has donelittle wrong and also boasts a course win. 3. Final analysis Grumeti and Baby Mix top the list for me in this field as for me they have thebest form through the year and meet all the trends 4. Bets [TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] GRUMETI [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 10PTS WIN [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 6/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] Blue sq [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] BABY MIX [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 10PTS WIN [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 6/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] Blue sq [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] 2.05 County Hurdle Key trends 14/15 top two thirds of h'cap 12/13 5-8 yo 13/15 3+ runs in the season 12/15 Jan / feb LTO 7/15 1st LTO 1/15 fav 1. Reducing the field ok, the top 2/3 of the handicap's record looks the one to be with also 3+ runs,age. Leaves us with (from 10st 13lb & above): Clerks choice, Moon dice, Via Gallilei, Ubi ace, sailors warn, Ray star, desertcry, The bull hayes, Dirar, alderwood, lifestyle, alarazi, plan a, Edgardo sol. No winner has carried more than 11st 8lb since 1960, also there is a date statwith 16 of the last 19 winners had run within 35 days of this race leaving: Via gallilei, Ubi ace, Sailors warn, Raya star, Desert cry, The bull hayes,alderwood, alarazi, edgardo sol. 2. Consider the main contenders A typically open handicap, Citizenship won a big handicap in Ireland in Januaryand is likely to start favourite, but has never raced at the track before. MoonDice is interesting having finished 4th here in the Greatwood hurdlebehind Brampour in December and if reproducing that form, could be thereabouts.Dirar was 8th in this last year and hasn’t raced for a while, watchout in the betting for that one. 3. Final analysis Of the trendshort list, via gallilei cannot win off this mark which is 23lb higherthan best win. Ubi ace was an unlucky loser at Ayr LTOhaving been in front until the last 10 yards and was touched off by Stormyweather. I think the 5lb rise in the weights may just be against him but wewill see. Sailors warn was 6thin the triumph last season and although has been on the go a bit this season isoff a mark of 143 4lb higher than best win and was a creditable 6thin the betfair hurdle at newbury recently. Raya star was 3rd in thatrace and again has a chance here off 4lb higher than best win. Desert cry may need a flatter track.Alderwood is running off a much higher mark than best win. Alarazi was 15th in this last yearafter its imperial cup victory but now off 12lb higher has no chance on mybook. Edgardo sol is interesting with its courseform and the 7lb claimer on board. 4. Bets [TABLE=class: MsoTableGrid] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] SAILORS WARN [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 5PTS EW [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 25/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] P POWER [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] RAYA STAR [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 5PTS EW [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 12/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] Bet365 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] EDGARDO SOL [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 5PTS EW [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 33/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] Hills [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] 2.40 AlbertBartlett Hurdle only 7 runnings of this race to look at 7/7 2-4 runs 4/7 Course win that season 6/7 Course form 5/7 Won or 2nd LTO 7/7 G2 LTO 5/7 21f+ win 1. Reducing the field I like the stat of 2-4 runs and G2 LTO with previous course form, leaving a shortlist of: Boston bob, Meister Eckhart, Rocky creek, 2. Consider the main contenders Boston Bob has been well toutedfor this race and looks to have little opposition possibly only Nicholls’ RockyCreek. 3. Final analysis Sticking with the favourite forthis race with Nicholls having never won this race and still unsure over stableform?? 4. Bets [TABLE=class: MsoTableGrid] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] BOSTON BOB [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 10PTS WIN [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 6/4 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] Bet365 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] 5.15 GrandAnnual Key trends 13/15 aged 9 or less 14/15 2+ runs in season 10/15 8/1 or less SP 12/15 carried no more than 10st 12lb 12/15 5-13 chase runs 7/15 1st or 2nd LTO 4/15 favs 4/15 irish trained (Arthur Moore has had 2 wins from 6 runners) 7 of last 10 were top 5 in betting Prior to 2011, biggest weightcarry was 10st 11lb in previous 11 runnings. 1. Reducing the field Remove the 1st lot of horses on age and runs to date: French Opera, Cornas, Oiseau denuit. The weight stat is surprising as some good horses enter this so it just shows it’sdifficult to win form the top of the handicap. Also consider the 5-13 chaseruns, leaving Tanks for that, Renard, Kumbeshwar, Sileavardagh, Tara royal,Bellvano Anquetta, Lucky William, Ultimate. 2. Final analysis Decided to look quite closely at the form of these with previous festivalexperience a plus obviously but also horses running within their best winningmark. Tanks for that is carrying 7lb more then when 18th in thislast year. Has won at the course since but can it win off a mark of 149? Renardappreciated the return to 2m LTO but 9lb higher than best win which again is abig ask. Kumbeshwar has had a great deal of runs from flat and hurdles careerand kept going in January running 3 times that month, was a decent hurdler lastseason with runner up at the festival and at Aintree. Now closely matched withKid Cassidy in this race. Eradicate will get its ground tomorrow and is 2lbhigher now, David Bass gets on well with the horse. Bellvano would have achance but seems to prefer flat tracks and all 3 runs here have been below par.Lucky William ha some good pockets of form and is only 3lb higher than bestwin. I do like horses that have been up against decent animals and performedwell. 3. Bets [TABLE=class: MsoTableGrid] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] LUCKY WILLIAM [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 5PTS EW [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 20/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] Bet365 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] ERADICATE [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 5PTS EW [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 14/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] Bet365 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete10 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 Rob can i ask where you get your trends from .Perhaps the ones I am reading do not stack . Not yours mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 Rob can i ask where you get your trends from .Perhaps the ones I am reading do not stack . Not yours mind. i wrote them myself abot 5 yr ago and update them every year with the result. I tend to stick to the same trend lines so i dont go looking for any more I used to run through other trends etc and nick the odd ones etc in case they added any help to mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 There is a trend in the Triumph Bowles that would change the whole complexion of what you would bet on if you had picked up on the trend. The last 13 winners had a flat campaign. 7 of the last 8 winners had their hurdling debut in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 There is a trend in the Triumph Bowles that would change the whole complexion of what you would bet on if you had picked up on the trend. The last 13 winners had a flat campaign. 7 of the last 8 winners had their hurdling debut in December. Both of Bowles picks here meet these two trends Aidy. Grumeti has had 9 flat starts in the UK with two wins, one 2nd and three 3rds. Officially rated 84, (another possible trend is that 6 of 7 winners of the Triumph that run on the flat in the UK were rated above 80). First hurdle debut was on 31 Dec 2011. Baby Mix has had six flat starts in France with three wins. No official rating here but could just possibly be rated 80+ judging from the value of his races. First hurdle debut was on 10th Dec 2011. Best of luck with your selection in this Aidy (Sadler's Risk), looks to also have a good chance in this open looking race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Re: BOWLES CHELTENHAM TRENDS 2012 True Skylark, i forget to put in that included in those flat runs, each winner had run at least once over a trip of 1m 4f.. That would rule out Grumeti and Baby Mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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