Jumps Racing - Saturday 10th March 2012

[Bathtime For Rupert]

2.05 Sandown - 2pts win Dualla Lord @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes) Will take a chance on Paul Nicholls' runner here, who has form tied in with some quite useful types in my eyes. He was sent off 5/4 favourite on his debut under rules in a three-mile maiden hurdle, but bumped into one, as he went down by a length, with the front two well clear. The winner was the now 135-rated animal Rev It Up. My selection caught the eye when he was travelling well when coming down in a novice chase won by Grands Crus, and confirmed this when yet again going down narrowly to a nice type. He found Nicky Henderson's Nelson Bridge a neck too strong - that horse now 2-2 having won a bumper previously, and might be smart considering the gap back to the third. The 2 miles around Taunton was always likely to be a bit sharp for him last time, when a 9l third in a decent race. One of the winners (dead heat) was only beaten 4l by Pearl Swan previously, giving plenty of weight away, and the other is a live 16/1 shot for the Triumph Hurdle. Although 130 looks a high mark, this horse has been competing with some high-class novices, and the return to a stiffer test will really suit. Nicholls and Walsh team up, and the yard are going very well at the minute. 2.40 Sandown - 3pts win Ballyfoy @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes) Quite confident on this 10/1 shot, for all he may want a stiffer test than this three miles on decent ground. He's unquestionably well-handicapped having won off 7lbs higher in 2010, and has shaped well this season for Gary Moore - who is among the winners. He returned from a break after the gruelling Eider chase to run with credit in the Southern National at Fontwell - a real test of stamina on heavy ground. He naturally would be expected to come on for that, and did so when running pretty well to be 4th of 16 at Newbury in a very competitive chase. He was outpaced and in the rear before making relentless progress, and I don't think he's as likely to become quite so badly outpaced around here, at a track which does see front-runners tire and those from the back prosper quite regularly. That race at Newbury has worked out strongly, and Ballyfoy had the legs to run a close 2nd over hurdles back at Fontwell last time. He should be in tip-top shape now, and I expect a big run, especially if they go off quick. 3.15 Sandown - 2pts win Devil To Pay @ 8/1 (Hills) I'm quite content to take on the favourite here. The form looks pretty useful, but he's too short in a race of this nature, and this will prove a stronger test of stamina, and it may be that he can't finish to the same degree of success as at Taunton. I like Devil To Pay down towards the bottom-end of the weights for Alan King, A decent stayer on the flat, this horse has taken really well to hurdles, and only went down narrowly after a strong, late challenge at Taunton behind Sire De Grugy last time out. It was a great effort, and I quite fancy this one to turn the form around today with a 2lb swing in the weights. The track may well suit my selection more than that one, also, with a sharp track playing to that one's strengths. I still think there's scope off this mark, and the race looks sure to be run to suit. A strong pace at 2 miles on a galloping track should suit this horse who stays 2 miles on the flat, and he should be coming late.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 10th March 2012 2:40 Sandown: Song Sung Blue 1pt win 5/1 Paddy Power Song Sung Blue takes a big step back up in distance. Last time he won over two miles here when beating Wester Ross by just over a couple of lengths. Today he is over three miles. However Song Sung Blue does stay this far and this likley raced sort was only beaten ten lengths by Burton Port at Aintree at the Grand National meeting in a Grade 2. While never in contention he did jump right and that form still looks pretty decent in light of Burton Port's latest run and the fact he is now at the forefront of the Gold Cup market. Colin Tizzard has been having a great run over the past few weeks, so all the signs are that Song Sung Blue should go well and there could be more to come. 3:15 Sandown: Swift Lord 1pt win 20/1 Bet365 & Celtus 1pt win 20/1 Boylesports (both posted earlier in the week) Swift Lord is very lightly raced over hurdles for a seven year old. He lines up here for only his fourth start and there looks plenty of scope for improvement. Trainer Gary Moore has two other entries Sire De Grugy and Via Galilei and he is a dab hand at these big handicap hurdles. Looking through Swift Lord's form his two runs in March last year give plenty of encouragement. At Doncaster Swift Lord was fourth to Red Merlin, who could reoppose here. Red Merlin went on to win his next two races, the second of which was a seventeen length victory from Little Hurcules which gives the form a solid look. Swift Lord rounded off last season with a comfortable win at Hereford from Dashing Doc's with Raya Star further down the field. Swift Lord has not run since Hereford, however fitness is unlikely to be a concern. Swift Lord looks something of a dark horse. (With multiple entires can't be certain that Swift Lord will run, yet at the price worth chancing as likely to be a fair bit shorter once declared *) At the moment Celtus has the look of a horse who has under performed. Celtus ran well in France while in his runs over here Celtus has given the appearance of a horse that could do better. Last season Celtus was running a fair race in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham before making a mess of one and being pulled up. His attempt over fences was nothing special, however Celtus has been given time by Nicky Henderson since that last race and it looks as though his trainer still has faith in him as Celtus is entered here and at Cheltenham. *hmmmm or maybe not !!