Flat Racing Saturday 10th

[cpo]

Meydan Saturday 10^th March 1.05 Kinglet This is probably one of the easier races on the card to workout. It looks a straight match between Mickdaam and Kinglet, with Kinglet preferred. Kinglet got the better of Mickdaam in the Guineas but both horses were staying on well at the finish. I have read that Mickdaam should be suited more by the step up in trip but I don’t see why Kinglet would not get the extra furlong. He is by Kingmambo who has produced plenty of offspring that get over a mile. There isn’t much stamina on the damn side but the way Kinglet has finished off his 2 career wins over a mile would suggest this distance should be within reach. Counterglow won well last time out but steps up 2f in distance and although there is stamina on the damn side, there isn’t much on the sire’s side so there has to be a doubt over him getting this trip. If he does see the trip out however, then he is a big danger. Burano is forecast to be 5/1 on ATR but I can’t have him here as I fully believe he is better on turf. He has only had 1 run on the Tapeta but he was disappointing. He is maybe worth another chance but he was beaten 9 lengths by Kinglet in the Guineas and I see no reason why he should turn the form around. The only other horse I would consider for this is Noor Zabeel. This is purely down to the form of the trainer but again there has to be a big question over whether he wants this trip. I doubt there will be much between Mickdaam and Kinglet at the finish but I marginally prefer Kinglet. De Kock did win this race last year with Reem but I don’t think Mickdaam is in the same class as that horse. Godolphin remains in cracking form and I reckon their horses will be thereabouts in every race tomorrow. Interestingly Frankie is on Counterglow in this race but Barzalona rode Kinglet in the Guineas so maybe this is why he keeps the ride. 1.40 Hitchens Very competitive 6f sprint here. Tough call for me as I backed Hitchens last time out and I am going to keep the faith. Hitchens gained a deserved group3 win and big pot for his connections last time out, where he just got the better of Kyrpton Factor. There wasn’t much in it when the two met last time out but I feel Hitchens can pull out a little more here. Krypton Factor received the Fallon drive when they met and he almost got back up to beat Hitchens but De Sousa was equally strong to drive out Hitchens. Addictive Dream is chasing a hat-trick but races on the Tapeta for the first time. He has won twice on the all weather in the UK so should handle the surface. This is his first step into group company however and I feel he will find this too hot. Global City has to be respected coming from the Godolphin yard but he found this level too tough at last years festival. I think Kanaf will run a big race now returned to the Tapeta but the biggest threats could come from Iver Bridge Lad and the group 1 winning August Rush. Iver Bridge Lad wasn’t far behind Hitchens when they were both behind Captain Obvious but is 2lbs better off at the weights for this. He has kept his form well and he could go close now returned to this surface. August Rush is a fascinating runner form the Herman Brown stable. He is a group1 winner in South Africa over this distance but has to overcome an absence of 238 days. The stables runners seemed to click into gear last week and he could run a big race if ready to go first time up. Ryan Moore is on board, which is a big positive. Still I am happy to side with Hitchens to double up. This is much tougher than his latest win but he is capable of a big run. His 2-length defeat to Dream Ahead in group 1 company is the best piece of form on offer and De Sousa has had plenty of success over in Dubai already. 2.15 Sole Power This is by far the best 5f sprint we have seen so far at the carnival. There are so many fascinating horses lining up. I backed Mar Adentro last time out but he bombed out and finished last so I am happy to swerve him here. Prohibit comes here after finishing 4^th a couple of weeks ago. He should be spot on now and I would expect a much stronger challenge from him. Nocturnal Affair won a handicap very well last time out and had few of these in behind that day. I wouldn’t expect any of the horses in behind that day to turn the form around. War Artist is a now a 9 year old but can’t be discounted coming from the De Kock yard. He has the ability to go well here and has gone well fresh in the past. The 2 that interest me the most however are Margot Did and Sole Power with preference for the latter. Margot Did improved massively last season, which culminated in her winning the Nunthorpe. She had a good field in behind that day and she must have every chance here if coming here fully fit. Michael Bell unleashes his 2 stable stars in Margot Did and Wigmore Hall tomorrow and I would expect both to be 100% and ready to do themselves justice. Sole Power is the horse I am going to side with in this race. He is group 1 winner himself and is improved massively since his return to action in 2010. He too won the Nunthorpe and then backed that up with a win in the Temple Stakes. He ran an absolute cracker in the Prix De L’Abbaye last year to finish a very close up 3^rd and then disappointed in Hong Kong. That race at Sha Tin came over 6f but Sole Power is an out an out 5f horse. He is well travelled so should have no problems with coming over to Dubai and he has a good record fresh. He has only had 90 days off the track but that should have freshened him up and I would expect a massive run from him here with Johnny Murtagh booked for the ride. 2.50 Musir Theres a few classy horses in here but its hard to oppose Musir. Gitano Hernando needs further than this and I don’t think he will be 100% for this. Rajsaman is a horse I backed last time out but he was very disappointing. I couldn’t really back him here on the Tapeta although he definintely has the talent to win a race like this. Dux Scholar ran well last time out on turf but even his best form would not be enough to win this if Musir runs as expected. The most interesting one for me other than Musir is African Story. He almost got the better of Moonlight Cloud in France last season and has ran 2 good races at the carnival this year. He won cosily over 7f before looking very unlucky last time out over 8f in behind is stablemate. He is proven on the Tapeta and I see him as the main threat to Musir. For me Musir is different class here. In 14 career starts he has only finished out of the places once, which came in the Dubai World Cup last year. She won over this CD 2 runs ago where he beat Master of Hounds by 3 lengths. He has a great record at the carnival and I expect him to win here. The have to go and pick the other half up from the train station but these are my thoughts on the first few races. Will update the bets in the morning and put up my thoughts for the remaining races tomorrow. I am pretty sure I will be siding with Monterosso and Presvis in the last 2 races.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 10th [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Wolverhampton 5:15 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Fratellino (Each-way) [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 1/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 10/03/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Paddy Power @ 9.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Winless from 5 starts on the All-Weather but placed twice. Those two placed efforts happened in two of the last three starts including last time out. Placed 2nd of 12 by 2 lengths in a Class 2 Handicap at Lingfield (6f) in January. He had been off the track since May 2011. Only 7th of 12 in the penultimate run but beaten just 4 1/4 lengths. Much better in February when 2nd by a 1/2 length to Oasis Dancer at Lingfield (6f) for the Listed bluesq.com Cleves Stakes. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]