Flat Racing 20th Feb

[chris34]

6.00 Wolverhampton Doesnt look a huge amount of pace on in this race with no out and out front runner although Drunmore Boy has been ridden positively most recently and is likely to go from the front from a good draw and despite him running well recently including only just getting pipped on the line last time out a 3lb rise looks a little harsh given how hard he has become to win with and looks one worth avoiding at short prices currently. Fleetwoodsands has a good record around here especially over CD 4 from 9, won off a 5lb lower mark on penultimate start, disappointing over 6f at Lingfield but should be better over this trip but a career high mark looks a little harsh given how that form has worked out and didnt win by much. Chookie Avon is consistent but the handicapper looks in charge at the moment, Needwood Ridge had no excuses last time out over a CD he goes well at and perhaps handicapper has him for now too. Hawk Moth is relatively lightly raced for this grade but has run some reasonable races fresh most notably last time out when winning a CD handicap off a 3lb lower mark, on the face of it not handicapped out of things but race fell apart after a furious early pace set the race up for him unlike to get race run to suit this time round. Lucky Dan is becoming frustrating and increasingly harder to win with these days, he stayed on well enough last time out at first try at this trip for sometime but never looked like winning to be fair and needs to improve on that back up in grade. For me July Days ought to be hard to beat, prominent runner for which this race could be run to suit again like last time out on seasonal reappearance when winning a tad cosily despite diminishing distance (had been out in front for sometime) therefore a 4lb rise looks more than fair and was previosuly very useful handicapper in Ireland winning off marks in the 70s rated just 59, yard continue in good form and a good draw. 4pt win July Days 9/2 vcbet

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing 20th Feb STRONG VIGILANCE (16:25) was disappointing for the blog last time out when advised at 20/1 (backed into 4/1) but it showed that he really needs an easy time of it up-front to be successful. With no other real pace-angle and a better draw today, he should go well with Spencer back on board and off what looks an extremely workable mark. Twice a winner over this C&D last year, coming off marks 3lbs and 9lbs higher respectively. They were both when able to make all and it seems that’s the way to get the best out of him, especially as more patient tactics subsequent during 2011 did not suit, thus his mark tumbled. After being given some more leeway by the handicapper before his last start, he was very well-supported, backed from 14/1 into 4/1 on course and for the first time in six starts, he was ridden towards the front of affairs. Unfortunately, others were willing to set the fractions from the front and a very strong pace occurred, which gave Strong Vigilance little chance of lasting the trip. The combination of the market support/prominent tactics does suggest however, that connections feel he’s on a capable mark now, and I’m not put off by the fact he “weakened rapidly”, especially as he’d ended up going very hard from the front. Dropped another 2lbs in the weights, and Jamie Spencer back on board (rode him on his two C&D victories), he should go much better again today. There’s no other confirmed front-runner, with 6/11 usually held-up and the rest usually tracking the leaders or prominent so in theory, it should make Strong Vigilance’s task to lead much simpler, especially compared to last time. If getting said lead, then he can prove extremely difficult to pass and off what connections feel is an obviously good mark, then he’s definitely value at his current odds. If getting a lead, then he’ll prove very difficult to pass and would take a fair bit of beating. From Michael Bell’s post-race comments “we feel he is probably a horse that needs his own way out in front to win races” then front-running tactics seem assured and I’m willing to give another chance to this one, especially off such a tempting mark. On a side-note, he may provide a decent back to lay opportunity due to his front-running tactics and I wouldn’t put anyone off a lay at around evens to get their stake back. Bets 16:25 Wolverhampton – Strong Vigilance; 3pts @ 8/1 Paddy Power (bog)