Flat Racing 18th Feb

[chris34]

2.50 Lingfield A fiercely competitive handicap that should be run at a decent enough gallop given a race of this nature. Loyalty races off top weight and now needs another career best of a mark of 102 having won last time out over CD in a conditions event, needs more back here in handicap and not always been great fresh and been given a 2month break. Mias Boy beat Loyalty over further at Wolves on penultimate start and is respected to uphold that form given Loyalty is meeting him on 4lb worse terms this time out but again he needs more off this sort of mark. Mr Willis has returned to something like his best recently finishing well from well off the pace last time out over CD runs off same mark again today but losing run stacking up and still looks plenty high enough in the handicap still 9lb above last winning mark. Night Lily is largely consistent and was 3rd in a listed event in france earlier this year but was well held last time out having been plenty keen enough, she could be one of the pace angles in this race from a good draw but looks way too high in the weights having possibly been flattered in lesser events. Chilli Green is turned out quickly having scored quite nicely earlier in the week at Kempton but this is a stronger race under a 6lb penalty and over further which is a worry given she can be quite keen at times. Crown Counsel is potentially well treated on his best form, badly out of sorts when last seen but yard in hot form and would be no surprise to see him go well although no record fresh but yard can ready them but had 2 runs on surface on debut a reasonable 2nd but disappointing in handicap at Kempton on other start and that is a niggling concern. Hazzard County looks a value saver given his run last time out. He was finishing well and with the extra furlong today he should go well, dropped a 1lb in the weights for that run and not badly handicapped on best form only a 1lb above last winning mark over CD this time last year and although no easy ride appears to go well for this jockey and must hold a solid chance from a reasonable draw. That said Lockantanks could be a tough nut to crack if this race is run for those held up like I would expect it to be. Strong traveller who is in the form of his life right now and connections have hinted at the big race at the AW finale (Winter Derby) and will need to be winning off this sort of mark in handicap company to figure there. Only 4lb higher than last win over CD at end of last year, completely forget run next time out doing well in a race not run to suit. Again didnt do badly last time out with the leader allowed a soft lead and won well in the end but still a good 2nd in a race run in a reasonable time so form looks solid and if able to reproduce similar level in this company should go close with Morris in the saddle who appears to get the best from this horse. 2pt win Lockantanks 7/1 pp 1pt win Hazzard County 12/1 bet365 3.25 Lingfield Round 7 of the Blue Square Sprint Series and a few newcomers to this series and one makes a lot of appeal to me. Nubar Boy won one of these last week having been running with promise prior to that, needs a very strong race and for it to fall apart Royal Intruder tee'd it up nicely for him last week and could well do the same here again today so if so a 3lb rise doesnt look over harsh but had already been creeping up the weights this winter so does need to find a bit more. Waterloo Dock is best when he is able to dominate like he did in an apprentice handicap over CD in January not so good last twice unable to get to the front and similar story here from the dreaded stall 1. A chance is given to Cliffords Reprieve to continue his upwards curve at his first try over this trip on this surface, he ran a career best last time out when only just failing to reel in Chjimes over 5f around here, unfortunately the winner has since let the form down a bit but it was run in a good time and although 2lb higher could well find some more improvement in current mood with this step up in trip. 2pt win Cliffords Reprieve 11/2 VC 5.05 Lingfield I Confess looks rather flattered by his win a week ago at Wolves given how the race was run, hard to justify a 7lb rise in the handicap in my opinion and never won off a mark this high despite a good record around here. Legal Legacy has been in good form recently, but not won off a mark this high before and creeping up the weights at the moment without winning. Also looked a little stretched on recent run over a mile at Kempton and despite winning over this trip on turf not sure it suits him aswell as 7f does. One Way Or Another brings reasonable seller/claimer form to the table but not so good recently and needs more back in handicap company. Same can be said for Satwa Laird but needs to find a lot more back in handicaps but could be well treated having fallen a long way in the weights. The Happy Hammer has been coming in for a lot of money on recent starts but is yet to land it, got much closer last time out in race that was not run to suit. Runs off the same mark today and given there could be a bit more pace in this race he would be dangerous if repeating that effort. Daniel Thomas isnt one to dismiss off a 11lb higher mark for latest win, badly out of sorts for months prior to really finding his feet this winter, now 20lb higher since first win but has won off similar marks to this earlier in career and is not easily dismissed in current form given the race should also be run to suit him. 2pt win Daniel Thomas 4/1 bet365 1pt win The Happy Hammer 5/1 bet365

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing 18th Feb CROWN COUNSEL (14:50) has had its price contracted almost in half during Friday evening but still remains value at this 7/1 price, mainly as it will almost be sure to have benefitted from a break it and it’s likely to have the run of the race today, and from a yard in form is well worth chancing. A capable performer during the summer, regularly running to ratings in the mid-90’s, his form nosedived towards the end of the season. This could have been due to the fact he had got through plenty of racing in 2011, especially as it was his first season (only debuted in February). Another plausible reason could be that the summer fast ground faded away, as most of his best performances came on a quicker surface. That being said, his last two runs were horrible even if he disliked the ground. I do envisage a much bolder performance today though. Firstly, the 105 day absence will have certainly freshened him up and this yard can obviously get one ready after a break, especially when they’re in such fine fettle (35% in February). There is also a distinct lack of a front-runner in this contest, and this could well lead to Crown Counsel being allowed his own way towards the front. He’s lead before and ran big races so it looks likely that a similar tactic could be used today, especially from a fair draw in stall 5. If so, a mark of 86 would be very workable indeed, as I’d potentially have him running to around 98 or so if back on song. Whether he is, and whether he’s allowed to be prominent is another question, but he looks worthy of a decent bet as he could well prove very difficult to pass and racing over what is arguably his best trip, off a excellent looking mark for an in-form yard, he looks a value price at 7/1, as I had him at around a 9/2 chance. Disappointing that the price had gone but that’s overnight prices for you. HOOVER (16:00) competes in a tough race but could be a bit better than a horse rated 69 and is worthy of an investment in a race where many are pretty much exposed. A winner of a maiden over C&D last year, he generally ran to a decent level as a 3 year old (about a mark of 70 in most cases) when running on the all-weather, seemingly disliking the turf. He only raced until July and his last effort in 2011 was definitely his best, when ½length behind the winner to dead-heat for 3rd. He shaped with a fair bit of promise that day and looked to me that he might continue to improve gradually if kept to the all-weather. Gelded during the latter part of 2011, his effort on reappearance from a six-month absence was one of real promise. Travelling well throughout, he came with his challenge and looked to be in with a real shout with a furlong to go. However, he faded quite quickly, seemingly looking in need of the effort and he finished 3 lengths back. A point to make however, was that the first came wide into the straight to make their challenges, whilst Hoover was trapped on the (traditionally) slower inside. It was a cracking effort after a break and he looked like he’d come on a bundle for it. Now with that run under his belt, and dropped a further 1lb in the weights, he looks a fair betting proposition for today. Although the rest are exposed, many are consistent and Hoover will certainly have to step up if he’s to win today. That’s entirely possible, as he’s looked in the past that he could be an animal rated in the high 70’s region on occasions, and his effort last time certainly suggested that rating wasn’t impossible. With the useful Nathan Allison taking a handy 5lbs off, and from a good draw, he’s still value at 6/1 and should be around the 4/1 mark, so is worthy of a small/medium sized investment today. GUEST BOOK needs to be prominent and since joining Michael Scudamore, he just hasn’t been able to get a decent position. Although he’s been slowly away on occasions, he’s been held-up by design on every start since joining this yard and although they’re in pretty poor form (no winners for five months), they don’t have many runners and it might be worth chancing this one for a couple of starts, especially as he’s dropped to such a good mark on his form last summer and he takes a distinct drop in grade today. He only won in maiden company for Mark Johnston but ran well in handicaps when running off marks in the 80’s, so his current mark of 72 looks very tempting indeed. His handicap rating has fallen from 88 since joining current connections, but as previously mentioned the hold-up tactics don’t suit this horse. His worst run for Mark Johnston came when held-up, and all his best performances came when chasing the leaders, so holding him up isn’t what he needs. To his credit, he did run adequately on his penultimate start when making some late headway over 10f here at Lingfield, in a race that suited those close to the pace, and shaped as if still retaining some ability. In all honesty, he’s likely to be gambled on at some point in the next couple of months and with the big drop in grade today (had been running in 0-85’s, dropped to 0-75), it’s worthy of a bet that he’s not held-up today. If allowed to be more prominent, I’d expect a much improved showing. Although drawn wide, it isn’t the end of the world over a mile at Lingfield anyway and effectively a mark of 67 factoring in David Kenny’s claim, it’s worth a bet at these big odds that he shows more today, especially when he’s currently 28/1. Bets 14:50 Lingfield – Crown Counsel; 2.5pts @ 7/1 Ladbrokes (bog) 16:00 Lingfield – Hoover; 2pts @ 6/1 Bet365 (bog) 17:05 Lingfield – Guest Book; 2pts @ 28/1 BetVictor (bog)