Flat Racing ~ Mon 13th Feb

[Cowan]

Wolverhampton 4.40 - Opus Maximus (9.00), Standpoint (11.00), RFC A moderate pace with 2 potential leaders. Khandaq's tactics vary but won lto by leading so I expect connections to try that again. The horse does look weak though and I doubt it can make all being returned to handicap company. West End Lad is a better bet for the lead but needs some cajoling to keep it there and lto was beaten by a horse who tracked the pace. I don't much fancy the horses in the rear for this race so I'll stick with something that tracks the pace. Standpoint has been raced in this way in recent races and has been taking plenty of place poistions. I think it was unlucky to lose on on winning a few races recently so it should put in a good showing here. Opus Maximus starts off at the back but soon moves up to track the leaders at the final turn. Recent form poor but it hasn't had a race set up for it like it needs. The mark has come down to within 1lb of last winning mark and with that same jockey on board again, combined with an ideal wide draw, I like this one. Georgebernardshaw looks useless in recent races. The Lock Master not won in over a year and current mark is higher than last winning mark. Oh and I'm playing a forecast too. Did an analysis on my past results to see if backing reverse forecasts would be profitable and it would be +143.22pts, bearing in mind I'd stake 2pts if I liked 2 horses, and 6pts if I liked 3 horses in a race.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Mon 13th Feb 3.10 Wolverhampton - 3pts win Ebraam @ 9/2 (Hills) Trappy little seller but I think Ron Harris' horse is set for a big run here. He's technically the best in at the weights even having been dropped 10lbs by the assessor. He has strong form under these conditions, winning off as high as 92 here three years ago, and remained in decent form last summer on the turf, for all he's better on the artificial surface. He hasn't been suited by the two claimers he has competed in the last twice - pulling hard after a 5-month break off a messy gallop and it was a similar scenario when running on over 5f last time. Gets a 5lb swing with his 1 1/2l conqueror Master Of Disguise here, and has excellent claims of reversing the form back over 6f (7 of 12 wins over this trip). There looks plenty of pace in the race with at least 4 horses enjoying being close up. Luke Morris, obviously riding well on the all-weather this winter, can drop him in off hopefully a strong pace, and pick them up late on. Must go well from a good draw.