Flat Racing 10th Feb

[chris34]

1.20 Southwell A very weak looking handicap with most of these well out of form and hard to win with. Sofias Number One has 2 CD wins but they were in weak 4 runner sellers did run within 3 lengths of William Haigh back in November who has since won off a 18lb higher mark, since been running over unsuitable trips and could be seen staying on well over 6f here couple weeks ago but the way the surface has been running you would worry he might struggle to make a lot of ground up around here today. Symphonic Dancer is still a maiden but has shown some promise here and there for her inform yard including last time out in a 5 runner field finishing 2nd, probably not likely to be the best piece of form to uphold and never one to back up efforts and probably worth taking on. Spacecraft has been solely kept to this surface this winter and although running respectively he always finds one or two too good and is not easy to win with. A chance is taken on Caldeonia Princess who is the lightest raced in this field and open to more improvement than most at this grade. She has now raced well in here on 2 starts including a win off a basement mark of 45 over CD under this jockey, a good short head second last time out over 7f around here back from a break and if coming on for the run and the step back up to a mile likely to suit running off the same mark today should be hard to beat, also 5lb ahead of the handicapper. 2pt win Caledonia Princess 5/2 VC (taken earlier posted on twitter best price now 13/8 not sure I would back her at that price now) 4.40 Southwell Egg on your face type of selection this one will either be hopeless or bolt up. Ezra Church is 2 from 3 around here and duly bolted up by 8 lengths last time out in apprentice handicap under this jockey so goes unpenalised for that and 5lb ahead of the handicapper. He has shown signs of attitude at times and not one to go getting stuck into at 11/10 in my opinion. Myboyalfie is open to improvement having won when last seen over this trip on turf, up 7lb for that effort and yard have a decent record around here and sire stats give reason to believe he can handle the surface but no great shakes on a couple of starts when fresh before a concern. Prince Of Vasa won last time out around here over 6f and runs under a 6lb penalty today and 1lb ahead of handicapper, but had chances off this sort of mark before and slight concern is best efforts have generally come over 6f despite winning a 7f maiden polytrack. Dickie Le Davior is never one to trust slow starts often stop him winning more than he does, had a good run of things last spring winning 5 races including around here over 6f last win came off 82 on turf, has since won a claimer around here over 6f again and signs he was ready to cash in on his falling mark back in handicaps latest around here when another sluggish start cost him having only gone down by 2 lengths to the unexposed and well back suddenly susan. Completely forget latest run on polytrack has been well below best on that surface all winter but always runs a better race here and should be well suited to this extra furlong. 1pt win Dickie Le Davoir 14/1 lads 5.40 Wolverhampton Dunmore Boy doesnt look badly treated on best form but can often blow his chances by racing quite keenly as has been the case recently but does atleast shape as if in form if settling better and this drop back to 6f may be the key but probably best watched. Consistant appeared to come back from a break better than effort when winning off a 5lb lower mark, should enjoy a truly run race again today with several pace angles in this race and the 2nd has made the form looks solid (Rightcar 2 2nds and win since) but has had chances of this sort of mark before so now needs to back that effort up again today but yard continue in good form. Welcome Approach is another last time out winner with a good record here and under Luke Morris who is up again, won this race last year off a 2lb higher mark, the form of his latest win looks dubios run at a dawdle and slow time and was well suited to how the race unfolded and the form has since taken a knock with Dingaan turning in an awful display. Looks vunerable on that form. Almaty Express comes from the same yard as Welcome Approach useful jockey booked and not easy to read into the bookings given Morris's record on the other. He has dropped to his last winning mark over CD and has won here 15 times and hardly ever runs a bad race and he showed good attitude last time out putting it all in at the finish, form has been boosted by horses that finished behidn him including Welcome Approach and he is well drawn in stall 2 to make a positive move and record from a short break is ok and should give his running once more at a reasonable price. 1pt e/w Almaty Express 8/1 bet365

[Cowan]

Re: Flat Racing 10th Feb Southwell 4.40 - Mazovian (10.00) Only 6 runners but the pace looks to be strong. Usually frontrunning is par for the course at Southwell but I wonder if this will be too much pace given that 3 of them want to be at the front. Ezra Church most likely to lead but has only scored in weak races such as claimers and sellers. Prince Of Vasa also up with the pace having won lto with first time blinkers. However that was a class 6 race and I think class 5 will be too much for him especially after looking at his speed figures. Ideally I'm on a horse at the back. Dickie Le Davoir is unbackable on recent form, and even moreso when you consider he has never won beyond 6f. I don't like Meia Note either as the horse is still a Maiden and seems unsuited to a strong pace. The standout horse here is Mazovian who has been placing recently. The performances are better than the form suggests since he prefers a strong pace but has not had it in recent races. Will get it here. Of special mention is Myboyalfie. This one appears on my Southwell System. Upon closer examination we see it is an unexposed type who has been tried over a variety of distances/conditions. It looks like this surface and distance suit best however so interesting to see it returned. Has been racing very green but coming on with each run and could mature with lots in its favour today. I'm backing this one also, as a system bet.