Flat Racing ~ Tue 7th Feb

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1.15 Southwell Place Only Betting At bluesq.com Amateur Riders´ Handicap (Div I) Cl6 1m3f HARRYS YER MAN @ 11/4 bog (Bet365) Harrys Yer Man is a special horse as he made his debut just 8 months ago at the age of 7 trying a Class 4 National Hunt Maiden Hurdle at Bangor (unseated rider). His first race on flat was only 4 months ago (10th of 11 at Wolverhampton) and the horse trained by Mark Brisbourne showed almost nothing in all his following starts (5th of 10 his best effort) until last time out when, strongly supported in the market (11/2 second favourite with nothing on paper), he cruised home winning with ease a Class 7 over 9f at Wolverhampton (5 days ago). That race came after a 54-day break and surely something changed with the horse as he never showed anything like that in his previous 6 outs. The way he travelled leaves little doubts about today's trip and the amateur rider on board knows Harrys Yer Man very well (already on him in an official race) since she is from the same "yard". Becky Brisbourne is still quite unexperienced at this level but she has already showed her skills collecting 5 wins in 29 rides in 2011 (26%) and she always rode horses from her home stable, all trained by Mark Brisbourne (2 winners for the stable so far in 2012). The duo showed a profit of £37.50 in 2011. She takes 5lb off today so the penalty of 6lb due to the last win is effectively just 1lb more on adjusted marks. In such a crowded field to kick from the stall nr. 3 is another little plus for my selection. Let's have a look at the rest of the field as there are 14 runners in this race but the main dangers look just 5 horses: Carlton Scroop, Kingaroo, Mustajed, Granny Anne and Yossi. Cartlon Scoop has collected three 4th places in his last four starts and has a good career on his shoulders (9 wins, 7 seconds and 5 thirds on 40 starts on AW and rated up to 70 last Summer). His mark has kept on dropping and it drops 2lb more today (the 5lb claiming of Miss Bryant doesn't have impact as she was on her own horse on 4 of the previous 5 starts and last time out the jockey was Nathan Allison who claimed 5lb too). On the evidence of the last decent performance and the 2lb drop the horse would stand a chance but his only start on Fibresand was very poor (one month ago in a similar race over 2m with Miss Bryant on board) even if they went too fast after the start and the horse didn't stay at all in the final stages of the race. Another minus is the stall nr. 14 and the stats of his trainer Paddy Butler who has saddled only 1 winner (Querido) with 25 runners and Carlton Scoop's last two 4th places were the only other prizes Butler collected during this Winter campaign. All his horses have been quite poor in their last starts in 2012 and to seeing Carlton Scroop winning today would be a surprise. Kingaroo gets a huge chance from the handicapper as his mark drops 6lb after his last race and this 6yo trained by Garry Woodward has the curriculum that speaks for him. He achieved 5 wins and 4 seconds in 29 starts on AW and has won twice off 58 (50 today) one year ago. Four of his five wins came at Southwell and the last three were over 1m4f (so 1f more than today's trip). Last time out (5 days ago) Kingaroo finished 4th over C&D (first led then chased the leaders and weakened in the final furlong) and that was his best effort during this Winter. Miss Brotherton is on board and she is a very experienced amateur jockey with more than 50 wins in her career (20 in the last two years). Woodward has saddled just one winner with 26 runners during this 2011-12 AW season and none of his runners went closer than 4th and 4L behind the winner in this 2012. Anyway with today's handy mark and a top amateur jockey on board Kingaroo stands a big chance for sure but I still rate him behind Harrys Yer Man. Mustajed is the representative of the Millman's yard. The horse ran last twice in similar races with Mr P Millman on board and finished 12th and 11th but last Summer the duo won twice at Newbury and three years ago they partnered again for another win in a similar race at Lingfield and with James Millman on board Mustajed won also over C&D in 2009. Last two wins at Newbury came off marks of 60 and 57 and the win over C&D off a mark of 73 so today's mark of 50 (53 and 57 in his previous two outs) looks very juicy especially if the 10-week break rejuvenated this old horse (11 yo). Perfect feeling horse-rider, healthy break and lowest career mark are all in Mustajed's favour but the stable has had just 1 winner with 25 runners during this 2011-12 AW season and besides that sole win (Now) the horses from the Millman's stable hit the frame just twice so it looks not a special moment for the stable and I can't rate Mustajed's chances better than my selection even at this price. Granny Anne is one of three babies in the group (aged 4) and she had a good AW season last year with 2 wins (one at Southwell) and 4 thirds while still in training with Alan Bailey. The filly has moved to Paul D'Arcy's yard this Winter and her perfomances have been quite poor so far especially when the trainer tried her over longer trips. Granny Anne won twice over 7f and never raced further than a mile before this Winter but all her starts over longer trips have been not so promising even if she looked to stay in her mile efforts. Still her mark has dropped to 51 (last win off 57 just one year ago) and with today's jockey she will run off 7lb lower. The jockey is Mrs Wilson and they partnered together 4 times (4 of 5 Mrs Wilson's rides) and the best result was a 6th place over a mile here last November (off 7lb higher mark). A young filly that can still improve especially off such a low mark but still opposable if compared to Harrys Yer Man's form. Yossi is the last danger in my opinion. This 8yo is a son of Montjeu but didn't achieved anything special so far in his career (costed 65,000 gns) collecting just 1 win on turf and 1 over hurdle in 64 starts. His record on AW shows 7 seconds and 3 thirds in 23 starts so he's still maiden on AW but one of his best efforts came just 18 days ago at Wolverhampton when Yossi finished a head behind the winner Hada Men (third win a row for the Brian Ellison's horse that day) in a Class 6 Handicap over 1m4f. During the 2010-11 AW season Yossi collected the other 6 seconds and 5 of them came at Southwell either over 1m3f or 1m4f off marks from 61 to 50 and so even if the latest good effort came off 1lb lower (46) today's mark of 47 looks still within his range and the booking of top amateur Mr S Walker (22% strike rate this season with 2 wins in 9 starts) underlines his chances especially considering the top form of Yossi's trainer: Richard Guest saddled 3 winners in the last two meetings and 9 so far in 2012. So Kingaroo and Yossi have probably to be feared (especially Kingaroo off his very low current mark) most but Harrys Yer Man's last performance, his bigger room for improvements (this will be only his 7th career start on flat), the perfect combination jockey-trainer and the adjusted mark which is just 1lb more than last time out make him the big favourite of this race in my opinion.

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Re: Flat Racing ~ Tue 7th Feb 1.45 Southwell Place Only Betting At bluesq.com Amateur Riders´ Handicap (Div II) Cl6 1m3f DUNASKIN @ 11/2 bog (Bet365) This is the second division of the first race and I like the chances of the oldest horse in the group: the 12yo Dunaskin. Dunaskin has had a very good career on flat turf (7 wins, 8 seconds, 6 thirds in 61 starts with a win in a heritage handicap and two seconds in listed, collecting £152,481 and rated up to 99), a decent one over hurdles (5 wins and 3 seconds in 20 starts rated up to 130) and he's enjoying another decent career on All Weather tracks (3 wins, 6 seconds and 4 thirds in 30 starts during the last 2 years). Dunaskin joined Richard Guest's yard from Brian Ellison 20 months ago and in this very late stage of his career has been still able to put his head in front of all five weeks ago over C&D. After that race (29 Dec) a trainer's representative announced the retirement of the old warrior but he came back on track 7 days ago and with today's mark being just 1lb more than his last win over C&D he surely stands a good chance in a C&D that he loves (223121 is record over C&D) with top amateur jockey Mr S Walker on board and Richard Guest's yard being in very good form as written above for the first division of this race. Apache Warrior is a 5yo who will be running his 7th career race and after a promising 2nd in his debut in 2010 while still with George Moore he showed nothing. The horse joined an in-form stable such as the David O'Meara's one (10 winners with 51 AW starters in the last 2 seasons and 2 with the last five runners during the last week) during this Winter and even if his three handicap efforts were terrible (12th,12th,11th) after a long break of 236 days his debut on AW and his first out with his new training could give him a good chance in such a weak contest. The amateur jockey Mr N Slattery finished third with David O'Meara-trained Brunello in a similar race over C&D one week ago and has collected 2 wins with 25 rides over hurdles before that first ever start on flat. Mister Frosty has collected just 1 win in 37 starts in his career and that win came one year ago over 12f at Lingfield off a mark of 56 and therefore today's mark of 51 seems indeed a good one for this 6yo trained by George Prodromou who has saddled winners with 29 starters (17%) during this 2011-12 season (3 out of 13 for a 23% strike rate in 2012). Mister Frosty's last effort was a quite poor fifth at Kempton but the 75-day break and a handy mark (second off 52 last Winter over 12f here at Southwell) give him a good chance. Miereveld is together with Dunaskin one of the two C&D winners and no one else has ever won either over this distance or at this track so that's a very good note for this 5yo trained by Shaun Harris. That win came in December 2010 and the horse's best results on flat since that win have been two seconds over 12f and 11f always here at Southwell. Last second came over C&D one month ago (2nd of 6 in a seller 3/4L behind Overrule with Robert Winston on board) and his mark has gone up 3lb from that second. Today's jockey Mr John Willey takes 5lb off so his adjusted mark will actually be 2lb lower than his second over C&D achieved last January. One week ago Miereveld ran in a similar race for amateur riders but it was over 3f more (still here at Southwell) and in a 0-65 handicap so his 6th place (14 runners) 15 1/2L behind the winner Sistine doesn't read as a bad result in today's company. The big field doesn't suit him too much (both his win and his seconds came in very small field) but in this contest he stands a good chance at least to hit the frame. Phoenix Flame is the favourite of the race at the moment even if she is still maiden after 18 starts and has collected just 1 second (her best result) in 8 starts on AW. That second came 15 months ago over a mile here at Southwell and her efforts over longer trips (than a mile) didn't show any special improvement. Anyway she is still only 4 (the youngest of the group together with Dolly Colman) and the representative of a good stable at this level (Alan McCabe) and with her current mark of 52 which becomes 47 on adjusted figures thanks to the booking of Mr O Garner, Phoenix Flame surely stands a chance in such a poor race but can't be rated as the favourite in my opinion. Mr O Garner rode 40 horses this season and didn't achieve a single win (1 second his best result) and McCabe's stable didn't look in special form of late (0 winners with their last 18 runners none of them racing close to their best) so I'm happy to oppose her. Magnitude on the other side represents a stable in very good form at the moment. His trainer Brian Baugh has saddled 3 winners with his last 8 runners and most of his horses have been running really well of late (only 4 of the last 15 missed the frame). Magnitude has won 4 races on flat turd (in 23 starts) but only once (in 17 starts) on AW and that win came at Lingfield two years ago in a seller over 12f. Last time out this 7yo finished 9th of 10 in a class 6 handicap at Wolverhampton, 28L behind Sommersturm but that was his first race after 6 months and with another 29-day break Magnitude's fitness should have improved a lot. The visor will be reapplied for the third time in his career (3rd and 4th in the other tries) and his mark has dropped down to 50 with his last win coming off 49 last May at Leicester. Another plus is the booking of top amateur jockey Miss S Brotherton (more than 50 wins in her career and 20 in the last two years). Last but not least Laura Land that is a 6yo mare representing the Brisbournes (read above for their super stats when partnering together). The mare won only once in her career but her results on 9 starts on AW have been pretty good. The win came in a similar race at Wolverhampton with Becky Brisbourne on board one year ago and in the race before that win with the same partnership Laura Land was second over C&D in what was the equivalent of today's race one year ago. After a decent fourth at Wolverhampton last May in another similar race, always with Becky Brisbourne on board, Laura Land had a 7-month break and came back just two months ago at Kempton finishing tailed-off 12th of 12 44L behind the winner Jamarjo. She doesn't look fit at all (dropped off the pace 3f out and rapidly weakening) bur probably she needed just a race to work on the track and lose 3lb so that for today's race she's again off a mark of 46 (the same of her only win) and 1lb lower than last year's equivalent race. Many question marks of course but with the recent exploit of her stablemate Harrys Yer Man the duo Laura Land and Becky Brisbourne look very dangerous in this race but I hope the Brisbournes will be happy with their win in the division I of this race :)