Flat Racing 7th Feb

[chris34]

Off to Southwell tomorrow with the Rod Millman Racing Club with Mustajed in the first race so this is what my card looks like! 1.15 Southwell Harrys Yer Man far too short at 11/4, lightly raced but 8yr old untried on surface and now steps up in trip again and was a welcome winner for yard who remain out of sorts. Kingaroo should go close if continueing revival 4 time winner round here and 8lb below last winning mark, 3lb ahead of handicapper and decent amateur booked. Mustajed is the horse I've come here for and he could go well at a price, managed to get some 33/1 earlier which was a huge price. Previous CD winner off a mark of 73, lightly raced since on surface and although below form when last seen dangerously handicapped off a mark of 50 7lb below last winning mark in the summer and if break has done him some good could be dangerous despite yard very quiet. The rest look up against it if totally honest! 1.45 Southwell Weaker division, Miereveld did run a better race in a seller couple starts ago on surface but waved white flag too early for stamina really to be an issue last time out but perhaps e/w claims. Phoenix Flame does handle the surface but not convinced he stays this sort of trip which is a worry aswell as yard very quiet Magnitude is of interest e/w for inform yard should come on for run and has run ok on surface before off slightly higher marks and could go close under one of top jocks in this sort of race. Dunaskin won handicap on penultimate start only 1lb higher 3 time winner around here, moody sort on and off bridle last time out and would need to be a decent price to be involved in despite top jockey booking in Walker. Again the rest make very limited appeal. 2.15 Southwell Claretintheblood could return to winning ways returned to here, only 4lb higher for penultimate start win. Magilini has to be of interest for yard going well, first time blinkers on handicap debut and stallion had 33 wins from 370 runs on this surface and is well related to fibresand winners. Went close on debut after being slowly away, not built on that since but return to 5f sure to suit only slight concern is the draw stall 1 not ideal. Heidis Delight won on penultimate start over 6f similar level of form last time out not sure this switch to 5f sure to suit and could prove vunerable over this faster trip. First proper bet for me in this race; 1pt e/w Magilini 9/1 2.45 Southwell Argentine has quite a lot to find at the weights and also ran yesterday but in good heart and should Drawnfromthepast under perform he could pick up pieces same can be said for Spic N Span who appears to be running back to form and goes well round here and if he is an e/w price on course I would be interested. Drawnfromthepast is always going to be vunerable he isnt the most reliable, hasnt run to his mark all season but did ok in a 5 runner claimer last time out at Lingfield well favoured by weights as he is here aswell, fibresand debut sire has had 34 winners from 314 runners so sound chance if handling surface. 3.15 Southwell Not exactly the strongest race or that interesting from a betting point of view, Aqua Ardens is bred to want a lot further, Coral Sands 12 lengths behind Derivatives last time out and gonna have to find a lot more to turn that around, Derivatives likely to be a stupid price to win and clearly should in this field. The newcomer might be worth a couple quid in a f/c or maybe even small win pedigree not that bad and Stallion 6 from 25 around here although yard not known for maiden winners but prob not gonna get an easier start anywhere! 3.45 Southwell Competitive looking handicap. Ghostwing had returned to form recently over this course over 5f breaking track record with strong tail wind on penultimate start, very disappointing under penalty last time out, 1lb better off today and decent 7lb claimer takes over but becoming more and more unreliable it would seem. Global Village has been in good form for this yard wining twice over CD went close over 7f around here last time out, another 1lb higher and requires a career best now but perhaps more to come on this surface. Avonrose was disappointing over CD last time out and up another 2lb since that run so visor really has to bring about some improvement. Bandstand is lightly raced and won here on penultimate start knowhere near so good at Kempton last time out but run 2 bad races there now so a possible excuse and ran 3 good races here only 1lb higher for latest win and could easily bounce back on this surface, Dancing Freddy keeps finding a couple to good off this sort of mark and just may need a help from the handicapper. Punching goes well here but not been in best form recently and this is a better race than he usually contests. Joe Le Taxi looks a shadow of his former self since returning from America and can only be watched at present. Upper Lambourn is the one that interests me the most, won a handicap over CD penultimate start with great ease 5lb rise fair enough for that and since ran a career best in a 5f sprint around here when coming from a long way back, should be competitive back in handicap on debut for another in form stable and is now 3 from 4 around here and relatively lightly raced for age and could be open to more yet. 3pt win Upper Lambourn 9/2 vc 0.5pt win Bandstand 10/1 vc 4.15 Southwell Not a sort of race I'm really interested in low grade lots of handicap debutants but course form points me in the way of Samasana who has run well on all 4 starts around here getting close to Roedean last time out in a seller, looks capable of winning a race at some point of this sort of mark. 4.45 Southwell Decent race to finish on. Trachonitis is hard to win with and record fresh is a bit of a mixed bag despite a good record here opposable for the win. Jawaab is 1 from 1 around here, 7lb lower than that win now and although better effort last time out still nothing to get over excited about and would need to see more. Three White Socks was disappointing on return to action last time out on polytrack and has something to prove off this 13lb higher mark than last win around here when last seen before that run, return to this surface sure to suit but this trip looks plenty short enough. Hunters Belt is an obvious danger having been pipped late last time out on the flat over furlong shorter here, up 3lb for that effort which leaves him vunerable despite good record here and since been disappointing over hurdles and others now look better treated. Unex Picasso looks a good bet in the finale, was slowly away when last seen here early in January but showed a good attitude to fight back to get on top comfortably at the line winning going away. Slowly away again last time on polytrack and didnt play to his advantages the step up in trip should find this return to this surface and trip a positive with a better break and only 4lb higher for last win and unexposed on the flat and open to more improvement than most in this race. 2pt win Unex Picasso 9/2 bet365

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 7th Feb *Hunters Belt - Southwell 4:45* I backed this horse last time out when it ran over the jumps at Musselburgh, it was very well supported but did not live up to its favourite's tag and it finished 4th in the end, having travelled really well for a long way. Back on the AW over a shorter trip it should have a huge chance. He has 1 win and 3 places from 5 runs on the AW and was a C+D winner over 3 pounds lower in 2010. Has traded really short in all of its other defeat's, it has to make its move at the right time, so a lot is down to how McHugh rides it, but he is a very capable jockey. All looks set for a big run. *1 Point WIN @ 3/1 VC BOG*