Saturday 14th April - Race 4 - John Smith's Handicap Chase

[mowgli77]

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[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Saturday 14th April - Race 4 - John Smith's Handicap Chase 3.25 Aintree - 2pts win My Boy Paddy @ 14/1 (Bet365) This is clearly a step up in class for Nigel Twiston-Davies' runner as he gets into this race off a low weight of 10-2. However, I think his mark is fair and could well master this rise in grade with victory today. He certainly looks one of the more interesting runners in the race having competed just seven times in his career so far - winning three - and is a likeable type who will be winning more races for sure. He's an easy bumper winner having only been deprived by the very smart First Lieutenant in that sphere on his debut under rules and showed plenty of promise when obstacles were placed in front of him for the first time thereafter at Uttoxeter. It was his first effort of the season as well so entitled to come on lots for it and he finished a highly respectable 2nd to a nice type. The winner had hacked up on his hurdling debut so had the experience but only beat my selection by 1 1/2l. That horse has subsequently gone on to be rated 139 and the distant 4th/5th are decent animals now as well so it was a great introduction to jumps racing. My Boy Paddy went on to show his stamina when winning nicely next time out over three miles. He was confidently ridden by Tom Molloy to swing past the leader, who had kicked on, approaching the last and kept on well to win by 2 1/2l despite an error at the final flight. The pair were well clear and the runner-up is now a 123-rated animal over fences. You definitely thought that my selection was the one to follow after this so the fact he's only rated 126 now gives an indication to me that he has scope to improve further. He was off the track for over a year after this and his chasing debut didn't go to plan. Obviously expected to need the run fitness wise, he also learned a lot from the jumping test. He made errors and was eventually pulled up 3 out. However, he came on loads for the run by putting in a storming effort at Carlisle over 3m2f in February. He jumped with much greater fluency and looked like the winner just after the last as he came to challenge the leader. However, he just got tired up the run-in and was eventually beaten 5 3/4l in 3rd. The winner made it 2-2 at the track and the runner-up has won since so it wasn't a bad effort considering it was only his second attempt over fences against some battle-hardened handicappers. What makes this run even more encouraging to me is the fact that the Twiston-Davies horses were bang out of nick at the time which suggests that the horse is possibly a few lbs better than what he showed on that occasion. Even though the yard aren't exactly banging in the winners now, there's more encouragement coming out of the stable and it doesn't put me off today. My theory was proved possibly correct last time as My Boy Paddy got back to winning ways in nice style. Again he jumped soundly before staying on powerfully to score by 5l back in novice company. He beat a 125-rated rival into 2nd and a 120-rated horse was 3rd. My selection runs off 126 today and I think it's a good mark based on his hurdling form and his recent victory if taking that form literally. I can't imagine there's much between the Twiston-Davies runners in this - as there isn't in the market - and am not too concerned if Sam Twiston-Davies did get the choice and opted for Ackertac. The ground is an obvious starting point with my selection as all of his runs have come on soft or heavy ground which obviously suits him. It's impossible to say whether he requires deep going or not to be successful but he'll certainly be staying on at the finish because he stays well and hopefully his jumping will hold up - there doesn't appear to be a reason to suggest it won't. Should run another good race.