Friday 13th April - Race 1 - John Smith's Top Novices' Hurdle

[mowgli77]

:ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Friday 13th April - Race 1 - John Smith's Top Novices' Hurdle 2.00 Aintree - 1.5pts e/w Theatre Guide @ 20/1 (VC) Breaking my usual strategy of win only here as I feel this horse has a good chance at a big price to get involved whilst accepting that if Darlan is raring to go after running at Cheltenham, that one will be tough to beat. You can never be sure about horses coming from the festival onto Aintree and Colin Tizzard's runner skipped an entry in the Neptune to come here off the back of a 55 day absence. On the book he has plenty to find here to make a significant impact but having followed this horse through his races, there is still a lot more to come I feel. The bumper that he won on his 2nd start under rules has proven to be a strong contest. On this occasion at Chepstow, Theatre Guide ran out a determined two-length victor. The horses in behind have since proved themselves over hurdles. My selection gave 10lbs to the now 135-rated Magnifique Etoile, who was 2nd. A 130-rated hurdler was in 3rd and the 4th received 4lbs and is now rated 136 over obstacles. Theatre Guide beat all but one in a valuable flat race at Fairyhouse next time out before having a break before his hurdling debut here over 2m4f in October. This effort was very much one which screamed out inexperience as he ran extremely freshly and novicey. He tanked his way through the race, jumping sloppily, but still managed to look a threat turning in. However, some more poor jumps put paid to his chances and he eventually came home soundly beaten. However, again the race was a good one, won by a smart type, and he shaped like he'd come on so much for the initial experience. He was off for the best part of four months after that, which may have been a concern on his 2nd hurdling start, but it proved not to be as he put in a much more professional performance to win quite nicely at Wincanton. He settled better down to the two-mile trip and travelled strongly. He was still green when hitting the front though and was value for more than his 4 1/2l victory in the end. The front two pulled clear and the runner-up (also trained by Tizzard) went on to frank the form last time by himself winning easily by 6l. That one received 7lbs from Theatre Guide thanks to the claiming rider as well as having the advantage of a recent run. Considering the runner-up is now rated 129, my selection is worth a fair few lbs higher than that which appears to give him a fair chance of a good run here with further improvement likely. He has another run under his belt going into tomorrow and has fitness on his side whilst still remaining fresh. I think he's slipped under the radar here somewhat as one of the lively outsiders and can outrun his price over this trip and can settle at a likely decent pace.