Jumps Racing Saturday 28th

[cpo]

Argento Chase - Midnight Chase 4pts win @ 6/1 Bet365 It's fair to see this horse loves it around Cheltenham with his record reading 2-3-1-1-1-1-5 at the track. The 5th place came in the Gold Cup last year at the festival but it was 2010 where he improved beyond all recognition to go from a rating of 127 to 163. He racked up a hat-trick at Cheltenham that year winning a competitive handicap before going on to win in grade 3 company and then taking the Majordomo Handicap Chase off a big weight. He then had 3 months off a returned with an excellent 5th in the Gold Cup before being put away for a few months for this years campaign. He was entitled to need the run at Down Royal where he fell for the first time in his career but I think he can be forgiven for that as the ground was too soft for him and he was out on his feet when coming down. He ran a cracker last time out at Wetherby in the Rowland Meyrick under a massive weight to finish 3rd behind According to Pete, who has actually followed up in grade 2 company. I am confident of a big run from this horse at a track he loves. He is coming to hand nicely and should give me a good run for my money. Captain Chris who is the current favourite still for me has to prove his stamina. This will be a much tougher test of stamina than that which he faced at Kempton last time out. Time For Rupert is another horse that loves Cheltenham and he puts his Gold Cup credentials on show here. I expect him to be involved at the finish along with Diamond Harry. Whatever Paul Nicholls runs in this race has to be respected but I prefer Tidal Bay out of the 2. He is a horse I have followed for many years and he would have a big chance if putting 100% effort into the race. That is the only doubt with him as he seems to never put in maximum effort. All in all, it looks a cracking race and quite a few can be given chances but I just prefer the claims of Midnight Chase who loves it around here and is ultra-consistent. In his last 14 completed races he has only finished out of the places twice which is very impressive. His chase record reads 6 wins and 5 places from 14 runs and Dougie Costello has built up a good partnership with the horse, and rides him on Saturday. 2.50 Doncaster Qianshan Leader 2pts win @ 8/1 Ladbrokes I think Qianshan Leader has a great chance in this race. He is unexposed over the trip and did really well to win last time out over CD. The horse he beat that day Benny Be Good ran well today under tender handling and the pair pulled well clear of the remainder of the field. He has won his last 2 races and seems to be going the right way now. He is up 8lbs in this race but is 2 from 2 at the track so I think he will run well. The race has a very open look to it now with the Alan King horse coming out. Qianshan Leader handles the ground and has a nice racing weight of 10-8. Hoping for a big run from the horse. 3.20 Leopardstown Silent Creek 1pt EW @ 18/1 Coral Silent Creek finished 6th in this race last year off a 1lb higher mark but is much better off at the weights with a few horses that finished ahead of him that day. He has been in consistent form since that race and won on his last start of last year. On his first outing this year he finished a good 4th behind the progressive Seabass and then finished 3rd last time out at Navan behind Jack the Bus. I have a feeling this is the one they have trained him for and they have put on a good 7lb claimer to take even more weight off his back. He get's almost 2 stone in weight from last years winner Rare Bob and I think he has a cracking chance. 1.30 Cheltenham Night Alliance 1pt EW @ 14/1 Paddy Power I didn't really want to abandon Made in Time who I backed last time out at 14/1 when he won but I think this bigger field may cause him to make more jumping errors and his wins this year have come in small fields so I just have doubts over him in this race. The one I do like is another horse I backed last time out where he was so disappointing. He won over CD the run before racing at Newbury and he did well to win a competitive handicap. He was sent off a short price favourite at Newbury but never looked to be travelling and the jockey pulled him early on to give him plenty of room at his fences. He is a big price today and the trainer has had 2 very good winners in the last few days and I expect Night Alliance to show a similar level of form to what he showed 2 runs ago at CD. He is near the bottom of the weights for this and he should make a bold bid and go close.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Jumps Racing Saturday 28th 12:55 Cheltenham: Pearl Swan 1pt win 10/1 Bet365 Its interesting that Paul Nicholls lets Pearl Swan take his chance here. He was pretty much on a par with the market leaders on the flat based on their Racing Post ratings, so if he can build on his novice success at Taunton then he may shake up his better fancied rivals. Always dangerous to overlook the Paul Nicholls / Ruby Walsh combination at Cheltenham and while Pearl Swan needs to improve he could not be in better hands. 2:05 Cheltenham: Poquelin 1pt win 8/1 William Hill Poquelin has an outstanding record over course and distance and with Harry Derham taking off seven pounds he could be right in the mix even though Ruby Walsh passes him over. Last season Poquelin notched up another two victories here. In the first he beat Great Endeavour and then in April he got the better of Holmwood Legend giving away lumps of weight. That last win for Poquelin was off 170. Today Poquelin lines up on a mark of 168 however that will be effectively 161 with the claim. Looks likely to go well again on this course. 3:10 Cheltenham: Secret Edge 1pt win 12/1 Betfred Secret Edge might be able to use to his advantage the twelve pounds he receives from Broadbackbob and Knights Pass. Alan King takes a step few trainers have taken in the past ten years. Secret Edge also looks as though he will benefit for this step up in distance. Early on in his last run at Cheltenham, Secret Edge clouted a hurdle early and got a bit outpaced, however he was staying on, so while today he is not amongst the market leaders he could well outrun his price. Alan King is pretty shrewd, so there is reason to believe his four year old could be competitive here. 4:15 Cheltenham: All The Winds 2pts win 1pt place 25/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 1234) All The Winds looks well overpriced here. If you take out his last run on heavy at Exeter the form of his runs from earlier in the season read very well. In October All The Winds ran second to Court In Session. Although All The Winds was always held, Court In Session is a 132 rated hurdler. Next time though, All The Winds run here in November was particularly good. The winner of that race was Edgardo Sol who was just out of the frame on his next run, but when Edgardo Sol returned to Cheltenham he was a close third off 134 to Bally Legend. Going back to All The Winds last run at Cheltenham the second that day was the highly rated Cape Dutch who came in seeking a hat trick. Those two, Edgardo Sol & Cape Dutch, are young progressive horses and although All The Winds is lightly raced over hurdles it is unrealistic to hope he can progress in the same way too. However, a reproduction of All The Wind's last run at Cheltenham could see him go very close here and for good measure he has been running pretty well on the all weather so he should be spot on. 2:50 Doncaster: Fruity O'Rooney 1pt win 20/1 Betfred, Shalimar Fromentro 1pt win 14/1 Bet365 & Qianshan Leader 1pt win 10/1 Coral Fruity O'Rooney may have been value for a little more than his winning margin at Kempton, he jumped to his left at several of his fences and had to be straightened up. Also he set a good pace and while he may have benefited from falls from key rivals the fences are there to be jumped and Fruity O'Rooney may have exerting pressure from the front which led to those. Fruity O'Rooney is up six pounds however he is lightly raced and may have scope for futher improvement. Shalimar Fromentro looks as if he needs soft going, how looking back through some of his earlier runs he put up a decent effort against Wymott at Exeter on good to soft, and if you run in France the ground at Auteuil is laways likely to be pretty soft. Shalimar Fromentro has form with Fruity O'Rooney and there is an element of putting eggs in one basket, but on the basis they are both lightly raced in handicaps, there is also a chance they can both do better still. Qianshan Leader although younger than Fruity O'Rooney is more exposed yet seems to be getting better. His last run over course and distance when he beat Benny Be Good a neck with the others a distance back reads very well. A reproduction of that effort, by a horse that likes the track going and distance should see Qianshan Leader involved in the business end.