Jumps Racing Thursday 26th of January

[Aidymac]

*Tharawaat - Gowran Park 3:05*

Big competitive race this Thyestes Chase, the fav is currently 8/1, but 25/1 is far too big for this Gordon Elliott horse, especially with Davy Russell booked to ride. Absolutely hacked up on heavy ground at Galway over 2m 6f three starts back, beating Indifference Curve by 7 lengths and has proved it stays the trip when winner of a 3 runner event at Navan over 3 miles in February 2011. Last time out it was 13th of 25 in a hot race at Navan, but if it gets back to its best here, it will have a big chance of coming into the places, it has dropped a pound in the weights, its place record is 14/24 and on its only run here at Gowran it was 2nd. There is no doubting this is a very talented horse as he has routed big fields a couple of times, the Gordon Elliott stable have not struck it hot after 2 winners at Musselburgh today, both winning very impressively. Davy Russell has a terrific record for Elliott, 17 wins from 92 rides producing a profit of £23.62 to level stakes, and at Gowran Park for Elliott he is 1 win from 4 rides producing a profit of £9.00 to level stakes. Definately worth an e/w bet with 4 places on offer at a standout price.

*0.5 Points E/W @ 25/1 Stanjames*

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Racing Thursday 26th of January 1.55 Warwick - 3pts win Inga Bird @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes) Another fairly trappy affair but Henry Daly's charge looks a bit overpriced to me at 5/1 and is well worth a medium-sized win bet. This horse showed plenty of form in his first three starts before losing his way for a few runs but has bounced right back this season and looks a decent staying chaser at his level. Returned with a solid 15l 2nd over hurdles after a break - losing to a nice type with subsequent thriving horses in behind, and improved even further when putting in a thoroughly game display on his hurdling debut at Huntingdon. Was under pressure for quite a long way but knuckled down very bravely to hold off the challenge of Only Witness by a neck. That horse won next time out, the third won his race prior to his Huntingdon effort, and the fourth was an unlucky 2nd (in the race my selection fell in) since before winning last time out. Therefore the form has substance so it was a top effort on his first start over fences. Came to Warwick and was in the process of running another nice race and was booked for third when falling at the last. Plugged on well enough late on to suggest the extra 2 furlongs will suit him here and the race again has plenty of strength to it. The unlucky 2nd - Glens Boy - got compensation in a good race next time out, the 3rd was travelling well when falling next time, and the 4th won next time out. He gets a couple of furlongs further today which looks likely to suit and Richard Johnson takes over in the saddle. There appears no real pace angle in the race which can allow Johnson to take the race by the scruff of the neck with this prominent racer and will be tough to pass here in my eyes. 2.45 Newcastle - 2pts win Fabalu @ 10/1 (Bet365) Really competitive staying chase over three miles here, which is sure to be a test in the mud, and that will suit Donald McCain's lightly raced 10yo. Each of Fabalu's four wins under rules have come on soft or heavy ground, including over three miles (hurdles and chases) and over even further, so today's test should be no problem at all. However, these wins came a couple of seasons ago. A mark of 138 was probably a little excessive, even though he never really got chance to test this out in handicaps in his later chasing runs, but 127 now is probably fair enough. He was a good 6th in the 4 mile contest at Cheltenham in 2010 - weakening gradually - but was a game winner of his two starts either side of that before being off the track for 18 months. His return at Ffos Las came under ideal conditions - a 3m2f chase on heavy ground - and for all he was well-beaten in the end, it was a really promising effort in my eyes. Considering his absence, the fact Henry Brooke was on board (no negative, but perhaps said he wasn't expected to do too much), and the way he edged out to 5/1 from 7/2 in the betting, meant he wasn't guaranteed to be ready. It was a good quality affair for a four horse race with the prolific Victory Gunner and high-class Swing Bill in there, and my selection took them along. He didn't miss a single fence out (until perhaps when beaten) and travelled/jumped better than anything. He was the last horse off the bridle, for all he didn't find much off it, and shaped as if plenty of ability remained. It was a real struggle out there for all of the horses, and even though he relishes this, it would have been a serious effort to keep up the gallop after such a long period on the sidelines. There was enough hope in the run to suggest he'd come on hugely for it and be a player this season. He's had a month off the track which is probably about right and should strip much fitter today. He jumped smartly at the Welsh venue and hopefully he can do so again here. He's a nice price at 10/1 and Jason Maguire takes the ride which is a positive move. Any market support would be very interesting and the fact that connections pitch him into a competitive race suggests they also feel the horse retains ability. Many of these have chances but the test might be a little too taxing for Tyrone House, whereas Allanard (tipped up when winning recently) has to prove he can do it on this kind of ground which makes him a lay. Eyre Square stays four miles so trying to win off a career-high mark back at 3 miles might be tricky. Anyway, my selection is well worth a smallish win bet at 10/1 with conditions to suit him down to the ground now he's race-fit. 3.25 Warwick - 2pts win Reginaldinho @ 4/1 (VC) This is a horse that I've watched quite closely recently and looks every bit a chaser (even for a horse who raced on the flat) both in size and on his running efforts to date. He showed a sound level of form behind some decent types in novice/maiden hurdles and being a fairly large horse, will have needed his comeback run this season. I tipped him up on his next start and he travelled fairly well but failed to deliver any sort of run when asked. He ultimately looks fairly slow which will suit him now facing fences, and also appeared a victim of the out-of-form Venetia Williams yard. Ran a decent fourth to a subsequent two-time winner last time out on ground a little too soft possibly so the return to good to soft conditions looks likely to suit today. The yard are flying so much higher than they were in the early months of the season and now going chasing with the stable on fire, bodes really well for this horse. Been wanting him to run when Williams' horses were going better and here is the chance. The yard have also won 2 from the last 6 runnings of this race and a big run looks on the cards.