Flat Racing 20th Jan

[chris34]

2.00 Lingfield Red Current was 2nd well over a month ago and has to prove fitness again and although he was 2nd that day he was still beaten 6lengths and the form since then has taken a huge amount of knocks and now up 3lb hasnt won off a mark like this since 2007 so has it all to prove. Maslak is up 4lb for an easy all the way success last time out, he had dropped a long way in the weights so is still potentially well treated, but doesnt win very often and hasnt raced over this far on the flat and has stamina to prove. Maison Brillet bounced back to form last time out at Wolves over 2f shorter, fitness not an issue having been running over hurdles. He could still have more improvement yet as not had much racing for age and last win came off this mark over a year ago and very useful apprentice takes 3lb off and is 3lb ahead of the handicapper here and if proving as good over this trip could be hard to beat. 1pt win Maison Brillet 6/1 lads 3.40 Lingfield Another chance is given to Idol Deputy to get his head back infront. He won a weakish class 7 event easily off a mark of 50 3 starts ago and has since bettered that form with 2 placed efforts and really caught the eye last time out, when travelling strongly throughout the race as if he was a well handicapped horse, probably kicked a little early that day but still only found a well treated Aviso and a rallying improver Matijaar too much and probably would only need to repeat that effort off the same mark to be bang there. 2pt win Idol Deputy 6/1 lads 4.10 Lingfield Arkiam has been in good form recently but has shaped the last twice as if the handicapper probably has him just about right for now. Shared Moment landed a nice gamble last time out, was given a rather a good ride under Amy Ryan, just as capable apprentice takes over the reins today, but a 6lb penalty leaves him a fair bit to find given he has never won off a mark this high before. Storm Runner looks the safest option, he has won 3 from his last 4 starts and had a good excuse last time out at the weekend when meeting trouble in running and left with a lot too do in too short time but finished extremely well to suggest he is still well handicapped and Powell back on board today and won his last 2 starts on him and he looks the one to beat. 4pt win Storm Runner 5/2 lads 7.30 Wolverhampton Thought Piccolo Express would be shorter than his current 8/1 odds. He won this race last year off just a 1lb lower mark and very rarely runs a bad race, not quite at best on recent reappearance looking desperately in need of the run to be fair have got into a challenging position before clearly feeling the pinch. Wouldnt be a surprise if he was to strip fitter and may have been aimed at this race to win it again for his small yard. 1pt e/w Piccolo Express 8/1 bet365

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing 20th Jan Opposing you on Storm Runner Chris, does deserve to be favourite mind and might well hack up, bit on the skinny side in terms of value, for me at least. Good luck though! The return to a Class 6 and more positive tactics will likely bring about an improved performance about STRONG VIGILANCE (15:40) and it’s worth chancing they’ll sit him more prominent today, after some poor showings when held-up. He’s been given a chance by the handicapper now and could well strike at some point this winter off this kind of rating. He looked quite talented, if not quirky with his runs on turf in 2010, but seemed fond of the all-weather early last year, scoring twice from the front in two small-field events. They were off ratings of 64 and 72 so his current mark of 63 makes him look quite well-handicapped. It’s fair to say since those two victories he has done very little, but has seemingly been held-up by design on most occasions, and for a horse that doesn’t have the greatest turn of foot, it definitely isn’t ideal and he does seem happiest from the front. Although this is hardly a small-field contest and he isn’t perfectly drawn in stall 9, if they wanted to sit towards the front of affairs, it’s entirely possible they can as there no real confirmed front-runner in attendance and I don’t see there being a fierce early pace. With the booking of the talented Raul Da Silva taking the eye, along with his 5lb claim making this one look further well-handicapped, he could well run a race much better than his odds of 20/1 suggest. It wouldn’t be the first time a horse has dropped to this grade and found improvement and with front running tactics not out of the question back in this sphere, he will almost certainly run well if they are. That’s a big “if”, but it’s worth a small investment if it is the case, especially as I doubt connections would have persisted with this one unless they still thought he had a race in him. Back from a short break he could go well and fitness will not likely be an issue, as they’ve seemingly got plenty of work into him (according to Michael Bell’s website) and I’d be hopeful of a decent showing. In the closing race of the day at Lingfield, the Ron Harris trained ALHABAN (16:10) is officially 4lbs in front of the handicapper, as he’s due to go up in the weights tomorrow but I feel he’s value for a bit more improvement than that back in a handicap at this mile trip and he looks very decent value currently. A useful juvenile, rated 107 at his peak, he’s struggled in no uncertain terms since and has fallen to a mark of 61. That being said, he’s shown a fair bit more promise over the past few months, being unlucky to run into an impressive winner in Saharia back in October in selling company over a little further than this. He then ran a poor race back in a handicap but that can obviously be excused, as he didn’t stay the 1m4f trip he was asked to compete over. After a poor effort in a visor, he made amends by running a fine race a week ago over 7f here, giving Hinton Admiral (rated 18lbs superior) something to think about in the closing stages, finishing only ½ length behind. Although those figures cannot be taken too literally, it showed that he was still capable of a decent effort, that his current handicap mark was on the lenient side and that 7f was just a little bit too sharp for him The step up in trip to a mile today is of course a big positive, as has recently looked like his best trip. He isn’t the most consistent, which is a worry but today is likely the best time to catch this animal, especially as they’ll be very little leeway ratings wise if contesting a handicap under his new rating. With Luke Morris back on board, a dab hand around these tracks, then he should definitely run a big race off a rating of 61, especially as I think he could be up to running to a level about 10lbs higher than that over a mile trip. This isn’t a bad race, with Shared Moment an emphatic winner last time, but she might just be held off her new mark, whilst Storm Runner is the most likely winner, his price reflects that and he’s worth opposing. Sottovoce would be interesting if the money came for her, whilst I think Arkaim may need a little further on polytrack. The rest look inconsistent/held off their current marks and there’s definitely some value in the 6/1 about Alhaban, as I have him around a 7/2 chance in this field. Hopefully this run doesn’t come too soon and if it does, the distress signals will be apparent a fair out but if he’s fine from last week’s exertions, he has a very decent chance today. Bets 15:40 Lingfield – Strong Vigilance; 1pt @ 20/1 Ladbrokes (bog) 16:10 Lingfield – Alhaban; 3pts @ 6/1 Ladbrokes, BetVictor (bog)