Flat Racing Wednesday 18th

[cpo]

5.25 Kempton She Ain't A Saint 1.5pts EW @ 14/1 Bet365 A tricky London Mile Qualifier to get stuck into here and many look to have chances. These are normally tough races to fathom out but I do like the look of one of the Jane Chapple-Hyam runners. It would be no surprise if either if her entries were to go and win this but I prefer the claims of She Ain’t A Saint. This horse only had her first run on a racetrack towards the end of 2010 but started 2011 with a couple of wins. She won at this track over 7f before going on to win a handicap over this trip at Lingfield. She won that race off a mark of 77 and won it quite cosily. She was then given 4 runs on turf where she showed absolutely nothing in some better class handicaps than this one but I feel today she gets her ideal conditions. She wasn’t at her best when returning to the all weather when finishing 12th of 13 in August last year but her last 3 runs have been much more encouraging. In September she finished just 3 lengths behind the winner over 7f at Kempton off a mark of 80, before running to a similar level at Wolverhampton off 78. Last time out she was much better in a completive handicap at Lingfield over 10f, where she probably found the trip against her as she weakened in the final furlong. Turning for home she was right there on the inside but faded in the home straight which suggested to me a drop back in trip to a mile would be ideal. She has been dropped a further 2lbs so gets in this race off 75 which is 2lbs lower than her last handicap win. Luke Morris has been on board for her last 2 runs and this is obviously a plus as he is one of the top jockeys on the all weather and is the favourite to win the all weather championship. SAAS gets first time cheek-pieces today which may just eke out a little more improvement but I think her sliding mark and that fact she runs over a mile in this are important factors as well. There is no doubt that she is a better horse on the all weather as she has 2 wins from 6 runs compared to nothing from 5 runs on turf. Jane Chapple-Hyam has had a recent winner from just 2 runners and did actually win this race last year with Gallantry. She comes into this race with 2 chances and a case can be made for her other runner who has won twice over CD off higher marks. Big Bay has won over CD off 85 and more recently off 80 but hasn’t been in the best form of late. Today he races off 72 so is clearly well handicapped if he can rediscover some form. The slightly off putting thing with Big Bay for me is that he has only ever run well when Neil Callan has been riding him. Still it would be no surprise if he were to pop up as he did last year at 14/1, beating Lockantanks. There are plenty of other dangers in the race with recent winner April Fool looking one of the most likely threats. He won very nicely over 7f last week and has won over CD in the past. He is still handicapped to win and the talented Raul Da Silva takes the ride again. There aren’t many others that look particularly well handicapped but Dr.Koukash runners seem to be popping up all over the place and it would be no surprise if Satwa Laird were to get involved in this. The race should be run at a decent clip with Peponi, April Fool and Satwa Laird all possibly wanting to lead. It may be tough for April Fool to get to the front from the outside draw but I still think the pace will be good. This should hopefully set it up for my selection who will be held up by Luke Morris possibly in midfield. He has a tough draw in 12 to overcome so should just drop him in behind the pace but I expect to see him finishing to good effect. There a couple in here making their handicap debuts and could be anything but i don’t think this is as competitive as some of these qualifiers have been and I think She Ain’t A Saint can run well now back below her last winning mark.

[cpo]

Re: Flat Racing Wednesday 18th Slightly off topic question but on Oddschecker they have a little pie chart that shows you what the most popular bets are in a certain race. I was just wondering how they determine what the most popular bets are and where they get their info from?