Jump Racing; Monday 16th January

[Lars]

PRETTY PENNY (15:40) could be an absolute certainty if the bare form of her point to point victory works out as she beat two horses who would be rated around 20lbs higher than her current mark. She’ll almost definitely be the sort of horse who’s suited by fences and should go really well in what really is a poor race. She actually started her career in points, finishing 2nd twice in two maidens in that sphere before running under rules with Martin Keighley over timber. She didn’t show a great deal at all, and subsequently moved to Jennifer Mason. That move seems to have done the trick though, as she won on her last start over 3 miles in a maiden point to point at Barbury by ½ a length. The two placed horses would be given far superior official ratings, something in the region of 20-30lbs better than Pretty Penny’s official rating of 70 when they next show up under rules so she looks extremely well-handicapped I feel, especially now encountering fences (which will suit) and over this kind of trip. My one concern really is the ground, as Martin Keighley has stated in his blog in the past that he thought she’d need soft ground, and the pointing success came on soft ground. Current conditions at Plumpton are good to soft and they haven’t had any rain for a little while, so if it came up genuine good ground by post-time then she might be slightly inconvenienced. That being said, there has been a forecast of potentially dead ground today which may well suit. She’s still worth chancing though I feel and with a fair bet as well. She looks the perfect type to relish chasing and gets in off a ridiculously low-weight. She should stay the extra 2 furlongs and the Jennifer Mason horses seem to be running well (placed effort in a listed race last week). 6/1 is a big price in a poor field and hopefully the ground doesn’t go against her, but she’s well worth a bet as today is probably the time to catch her value wise. 15:40 Plumpton – Pretty Penny; 3pts @ 6/1 Ladbrokes (bog)

[cpo]

Jump Racing Monday 16th 3.40 Plumpton Might as Well 1.5pts EW @ 9/1 Paddy Power This is a very open race but I quite like the chances of Might as Well here. He hasn't had much racing for a 9 year old with just 16 career starts and just 13 starts over jumps. From them 13 runs he has had 2 win and 3 places and did win over this distance at the end of 2010. He looks on a fair mark and he looks to be getting back to full fitness now, after having 3 runs returning from over a year off the track. Last time out was much more encouraging when he finished a staying on 3rd behind the progressive Mr Chow. In that race the 2 horses that finished ahead of him are both rated in the 100's. Might as Well has been dropped another 2lbs so races off a mark of 92 which makes him joint top rated in this race. Seamus Mullins is one of the top trainers at the track and the jockey has a good level stakes profit here. Marias Rock looks to be the main danger with the trainer hitting form again. Stop The Show won this last year but stopped very quickly last time out so wouldn't trust that one. Sir Winston also looks a threat but I like the claims of Might as Well who should run well today.