Jump Racing - Thursday 12th January

[Bathtime For Rupert]

1.05 Fontwell - 1pt win Capdalight @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes) I'm taking a chance on this horse but it's a chance which I feel may pay off. Capdalight improved greatly for joining the Paul Henderson yard last year and put in some decent efforts over the summer months - possibly coinciding with the quicker ground. That is a risk I'm going to have to take today with the ground on the soft side yet again, but there have been excuses for his recent poor runs. He won impressively by 8l at Ffos Las in June off a 7lb lower mark than what he runs off today and then didn't have the best of runs at Newton Abbot next time over an insufficient two-mile trip in a race with stronger opposition than he faces today. It all went horribly wrong on his return to action in the mud at Chepstow in November as the exaggerated hold-up tactics deployed by Richard Johnson meant the horse was never in the race and didn't pick up. He finished a well-beaten last of seventeen which was hugely disappointing. However, he will have needed the run. Chasing never really looked his game in previous runs and it appeared the same when he put in a rather pitiful effort at Wincanton later that month. He never jumped and was beaten virtually throughout. His third run of November saw him run with a great deal more promise, however, despite the fact he was beaten 27l. He has shown that he can go well at Fontwell and on this occasion, the horse jumped and travelled with much greater zest than previously. He moved as well as anything in the race but didn't pick up after 3 out and mistakes probably exaggerated his margin of defeat. He also raced very keenly (regularly does) so it was no surprise to see him struggle to finish his race off too strongly. After a busy schedule that month, he's had a breather and returns to a novice handicap hurdle, which I feel will suit him much more. It should allow him to settle a bit better, and minimise the damage of mistakes. He may need the run, but I'm banking on him to run a sound race on the basis of his most recent effort. Another positive is the form of the stable. Henderson's last six runners have resulted in two wins (9/2, 14/1), two seconds (8/1, 9/1) and two held at big prices (40/1, 66/1). With the yard in better form now, a return to hurdles, and a freshening up period, I hope that Capdalight can bounce back. There are a few question marks, however, so a minimum win bet will do. 1.15 Catterick - 4pts win Dove Hill @ 4/1 (Bet365) Dove Hill looks likely to be a reasonable price for this beginners' chase unless early money comes and I feel he's the one they all have to beat at the weights. This gelding was an expensive purchase for Howard Johnson having finished first-past-the-post in good style in two point-to-point races. He was subsequently disqualified for having a banned substance in his sample on the first occasion but proved himself by coming home an eight length victor next time out. After nearly two years off the track he ran a good 2nd to a subsequent winner (and then 129 rated) animal on his hurdling debut - staying on over the three mile trip at Kelso. Johnson did not hesitate before sending him over fences for the first time under rules next time out at Newcastle in testing conditions over three miles and a mistake three out possibly cost him the race. As it was, he finished a respectable 3rd - beaten just 2 1/2l by the 125 rated favourite. He ran up to a smart mark on that occasion which gives him a huge chance today at the weights. Miss Walton takes off 7lbs which means his rivals must give weight to a horse rated around the 120s. Dove Hill had his first run for Sheena Walton over hurdles at Kelso in late December - where he shaped as if needing the run. He still ran well enough and with natural improvement to come from that, I think he still retains his ability. He returns to chasing in an ideal race - over a little further than three miles. He has plenty of stamina and even in this trappy affair, I think he'll prove tough to beat. 1.45 Catterick - 3pts win Cry Of Freedom @ 5/2 (Bet365) This looks a likely two-horse race in the market and John Ferguson's Cry Of Freedom looks set to be touched off for favouritism by Donald McCain's Star In Flight. Cry Of Freedom paid for strong 2yo form for the rest of his career on the flat - as he failed to live up to his early potential. His handicap mark was ruined by these good early runs and left him entering handicaps off a mark of 87. He couldn't compete as his form tailed off and ended up a disappointment. However, a clean slate over hurdles and a fresh start for this yard who do well with their jumping recruits, saw him defy a lengthy absence to return to the winner's enclosure at Huntingdon last time out. He was green at a few of his flights and made a mistake at the last, but it didn't prevent him shaking off his challengers quite readily come the line. He certainly proved he had the stamina for the job and the form has some substance to it. The runner-up ran soundly to be beaten less than 10l by Supreme Novice hopeful Darlan next time out before running a similar race behind the Nicky Henderson hot pot Tour D'argent. The third horse also placed next time out behind 132 and 124 rated horses respectively. Dineur was in fourth spot at Huntingdon, and even though he was giving weight to my selection, franked the form with a win next time out. At the weights, Cry Of Freedom has to run to 120 effectively with Jack Quinlan's 5lb claim and I think he's well up to that. He's sure to come on for that and has had a little break also to minimise the potential 'bounce' factor. I think Star In Flight's 125 rating might flatter him slightly for all he won with his head in his chest last time out. To the eye, he didn't beat very much, and coming up against stronger opposition today, I think he's vulnerable. John Ferguson is another trainer in form with three winners from his last six runners, and one horse which ran out when holding every chance.

[Aidymac]

Re: Jump Racing - Thursday 12th January *Guydus - Fontwell 3:35* Venetia Williams stable has hit form, i was on Ciceron at the weekend and it bolted up and this is another good chance for her to get off the mark. Is really well handicapped now running off 81 having been placed over course and distance off 89 in 2011, take off Harry Challoners claim and the horse is 15 pounds better off than that run, so must have a major chance with a clear round over this 3m 2f slog. *1 Point WIN @ 5/1 Bet365 BOG*