Flat Racing 11th Jan

[chris34]

4.15 Kempton Low grade stuff this class 7 handicap for most of these exposed as poor maidens. Brian Sprout is current favourite and isnt one you can trust despite showing form over CD 3 starts ago when ridden more patiently than normal, but has since bombed out last twice ridden more prominently again, but could just be a case handicapper had his say or it was a one off and looking at his profile that looks more the case and is hard to make a case for at 7/2. Pothgwidden Beach has atleast won here over CD and that was off a 4lb higher mark but struggled to find anyform this season and hard to back with any confidence despite dropping back to the minimum trip around here, the other problem could be the fact there is a huge amount of front runners in this field as you would expect in this grade (low grade horses struggle to come from behind lack changes of gear so ridden prominently) Avonvalley is of interest she is a quirky character but much better than this lot at her best and although like most horses in this yard has gone to pot but yards fortunes have turned around recently and she finished the turf season in good form not beaten far last time out and if coming back fresh and ready from ashort break she is handicapped to take a hand in this weak event having placed in handicaps off marks in the high 60's. Another that should enjoy the strong gallop is Lissleton Cross who appeared to put a better effort in last time in a very weak CD maiden in first time visor and if building on that effort he has dropped a fair way in the handicap since starting out in nurseries with respectable efforts and had a fairly light season and could just be open to a bit more and looks well treated on some of his early form, wide draw is off putting but if he finds the field falling back he could pick the pieces up. 1pt win Lissleton Cross 11/2 bet365 1pt win Avonvalley 5/1 bet365 6.15 Kempton Shawkantango showed hsi first real form on polytrack on penultimate start over this 5f at Wolves, was well backed returned to favoured fibresand last time out but was very disappointing and still needs to prove he is as good over 6f despite drop in class. Dvinsky has been running well enough to suggest there is another win in him at some point this winter but probably not enough to win this one and losing run now starting to add up unfortunately. Meia Noite is still a maiden but has shown improved form switched to polytrack this winter, latest effort was a big step forward only a 1lb higher today and with apprentice taking 7lb off concern is only blip to decent winter was under this jockey and that is a worry. Taking selling/claiming form on face value can often be costly to follow, but Dickie Le Davoir has been running as if he was returning to form finishing his races off well after his usual awfully slow starts and landed a weak claimer at Southwell last time out and on that form he looks well treated under a 6lb penalty and is 1lb ahead of the handicapper today. He is the sort of horses to keep on side once he finds his form often holding it well, has previously won around here and very well treated on turf form and well treated on AW form aswell, yard continue in good heart and should make his presence felt. 1pt win Meia Noite 4/1 bet365 2pt win Dickie Le Davoir 6/1 bet365 7.15 Kempton Caster Nova didnt show much in 3 maidens early in the year and will need to improve for switch to handicaps and also needs to be wound up after 250 days off track so market best watched for her. Gold Tobougg is another that is making handicap debut having landed a maiden on 4th attempt. Didnt beat that much and handicap mark looks a little harsh considering a 46 rated horse managed to get within 3.5 lengths although he was well on top at the finish. Of course not exposed but will probably need to improve again against a few hardened rivals. Nina Rose is of interest after getting back on track last time out after a blip the time before, may get an easy lead in this race with only one other pace angle from Perfect Ch'i who doesnt always make running and although she is up another 2lb she had shown form on turf off marks in the high 60's and first time blinkers fitted today and scored in first time visor back in november and at 9/2 against a false favourite looks good value to me. 2pt win Nina Rose 9/2 bet365

[cpo]

Re: Flat Racing 11th Jan 5.15 Kempton Volcanic Dust 2pts EW @ 10/1 Ladbrokes This horse looked so unlucky over CD a couple of runs ago. He was travelling all over the field but just could not get through. Finished just over a length behind the winner but finished full of running that day and looked like an unlucky loser. His run last time out over 6f can be discounted given this horse is a 5f horse and has never stayed 6f. He was beaten a distance that day but I am happy to forgive him as he also pulled like a train through the first half of that race as they went no pace. Conditions here will suit and there should be plenty of pace on which will help him. His stable mate Island Legend is one that like to front run so he may just set the race up for my selection. This horse was a big eye catcher for me 2 runs ago and I think he will be tough to keep out of the places with a trouble free passage.