robotzel78 Elo Rating's System

[robotzel78]

First of all, i want to say HELLO to everybody, and please excuse me my bad english. After a long break, in which I also posted this picks away using Elo rating system on two other forums (one from my country-Romania, and another international), I believe that i have time to try again this system. Almost every time, every new version made me think I found the correct method to use Elo. All was fine until I starts to bet on those odds, and also post them to various sites. Once this happend, the results were disappointing. After a while, I concluded that it is good to test a longer period, only in an Excel file, and see then if the version that is good or not. No matter what i tested, nearly all did a hitrate around 50% or less, and an average odds about 1.85 - 2.10, was not very well. The last version I produced it, i managed to improve this hitrate and in some cases we have got on average around 60%, which makes me think that, finally, I close with a result more better than in previous times. And statistics from an Excel file have not left expected. I can say that now I am relatively happy with the result, but there is always place for improvement. Introducing is little bit long, but there are some things that must be told. To go a little further and explain what I want to do next. This is not Paper Trail system, it is REAL LIFE ! Like I said, everything is based on ELO rating. If you don't know what is Elo, search on google or wikipedia, find out what is the rating system, so I will not get me the details. This new version is based on erroneous identification odds offered by bookmakers, more correctly VALUE, and the identification of possible surprises that can occur in major league on favorite team. There is an archive for each league about 10 (ten) seasons, and i extract data helping achieve forecasts. Predictions results are included only Asian Handicap odds will be located between 1.85 - 2.10 odds, there can sometimes odds a little smaller or larger. More picks willl be over the weekend, and relatively less during the week. The picks don't have analysis. I use a relatively simple Money Management system. The stakes will be flat stake, representing 1% of the bank. The main objective will be a profit of about 10% per month. Bank recommended is 100 Euro. Bookmakers are usually Pinnacle, 188Bet, Bet365. In future it's possible to add 12Bet. I want to say something very important, and i hope that the moderators of this section are agree. I start this system from November 2011, and now it is difficult for me to have another database with my picks separatelly. I don't see how can i attach an Excel file with all my picks from november until now, but when i could, i will atach. So, until now, the stats are: Overall Statistics (from November 2011) Picks: 219 Stake: 230.50 Profit: 22.12 Win: 105 Void: 35 Lost: 79 Yield: 9.60% Hitrate: 57.07% Average odds: 1.95 LSP: 21.13 We have a very good Yield, about 10%, and a average odds about 1.95, witch is excellent. January 2012 Actual bank: €122.12 Stake / picks: €1.20 Target: €12 Bookies: 188Bet, Pinnacle, Bet365 First picks of 2012: Grimsby - Lincoln @ 2 (0.75) @ 2.03 Hapoel Haifa - B. Jerusalem @ 2 (0.5) @ 1.79 Good luck !

[Grex]

Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System Hi, Robotzel. It is good to see a system based on "value".... it is the only way forward. And don't worry about your English..... it is better than many so-called native English speakers :p Good luck with Lincoln and Beit Jerusalem :hope