robotzel78 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 First of all, i want to say HELLO to everybody, and please excuse me my bad english. After a long break, in which I also posted this picks away using Elo rating system on two other forums (one from my country-Romania, and another international), I believe that i have time to try again this system. Almost every time, every new version made me think I found the correct method to use Elo. All was fine until I starts to bet on those odds, and also post them to various sites. Once this happend, the results were disappointing. After a while, I concluded that it is good to test a longer period, only in an Excel file, and see then if the version that is good or not. No matter what i tested, nearly all did a hitrate around 50% or less, and an average odds about 1.85 - 2.10, was not very well. The last version I produced it, i managed to improve this hitrate and in some cases we have got on average around 60%, which makes me think that, finally, I close with a result more better than in previous times. And statistics from an Excel file have not left expected. I can say that now I am relatively happy with the result, but there is always place for improvement. Introducing is little bit long, but there are some things that must be told. To go a little further and explain what I want to do next. This is not Paper Trail system, it is REAL LIFE ! Like I said, everything is based on ELO rating. If you don't know what is Elo, search on google or wikipedia, find out what is the rating system, so I will not get me the details. This new version is based on erroneous identification odds offered by bookmakers, more correctly VALUE, and the identification of possible surprises that can occur in major league on favorite team. There is an archive for each league about 10 (ten) seasons, and i extract data helping achieve forecasts. Predictions results are included only Asian Handicap odds will be located between 1.85 - 2.10 odds, there can sometimes odds a little smaller or larger. More picks willl be over the weekend, and relatively less during the week. The picks don't have analysis. I use a relatively simple Money Management system. The stakes will be flat stake, representing 1% of the bank. The main objective will be a profit of about 10% per month. Bank recommended is 100 Euro. Bookmakers are usually Pinnacle, 188Bet, Bet365. In future it's possible to add 12Bet. I want to say something very important, and i hope that the moderators of this section are agree. I start this system from November 2011, and now it is difficult for me to have another database with my picks separatelly. I don't see how can i attach an Excel file with all my picks from november until now, but when i could, i will atach. So, until now, the stats are: Overall Statistics (from November 2011) Picks: 219 Stake: 230.50 Profit: 22.12 Win: 105 Void: 35 Lost: 79 Yield: 9.60% Hitrate: 57.07% Average odds: 1.95 LSP: 21.13 We have a very good Yield, about 10%, and a average odds about 1.95, witch is excellent. January 2012 Actual bank: €122.12 Stake / picks: €1.20 Target: €12 Bookies: 188Bet, Pinnacle, Bet365 First picks of 2012: Grimsby - Lincoln @ 2 (0.75) @ 2.03 Hapoel Haifa - B. Jerusalem @ 2 (0.5) @ 1.79 Good luck ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System Hi, Robotzel. It is good to see a system based on "value".... it is the only way forward. And don't worry about your English..... it is better than many so-called native English speakers :p Good luck with Lincoln and Beit Jerusalem :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 1, 2012 Author Share Posted January 1, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System Thx Grex for your words. I just hope some people find my thread intersting and profitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 1, 2012 Author Share Posted January 1, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System Grex, i remember something, and maybe you can help me. How can i post a table from Excel. Because i just want to copy my pending picks, and paste here, under table format. I see you put something like this in your threads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsManyDead Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System Grex, i remember something, and maybe you can help me. How can i post a table from Excel. Because i just want to copy my pending picks, and paste here, under table format. I see you put something like this in your threads. Use internet explorer, not mozilla. Good luck with your system:ok. Is good to see a fellow (Romania) here.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System Grex, i remember something, and maybe you can help me. How can i post a table from Excel. Because i just want to copy my pending picks, and paste here, under table format. I see you put something like this in your threads. I just copy-and-paste direct from Excel using Internet Explorer (not Firefox, or you lose the formatting). However, I have been told that this simple method causes problems with the web-page..... sometimes my threads "hang-up". There is an alternative method, but I can't remember what it is :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System Thanks for your reply and help. I will continue to post normally, i don't want to use IE for this :loon. I start 2012 with two bad picks, 2 LOST, but i hope i will recover today: Accrington - Macclesfield @ 2 (0.75) @ 1.90 Shrewsbury - Northampton @ 2 (1) @ 1.92 Southend - Dagenham & Red. @ 2 (1) @ 1.81 Swindon - AFC Wimbledon @ 2 (1) @ 1.81 Ross County - Partick @ 2 (0.5) @ 2.14 Dunfermline - Celtic @ 1 (1.75) @ 1.95 Rangers - Motherwell @ 2 (1.5) @ 1.75 Afan Lido - Port Talbot @ 2 (0.25) @ 1.92 Airbus - Bala Town @ 2 (0.25) @ 1.89 Neath - Llanelli @ 1 (0.25) @ 1.79 Good luck ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System Yesterday we have a contradictory day. If in Wales we have 3 of 3 win, both in Scotland Premier League was lost, the big favorites clashing with 3-0. In England League Two we have 2 of 4 win, and in Scotland division the game was cancelled. Final stats for yesterday: 5 WIN - 1 VOID - 4 LOST. From today, we bet on another bookie from Asia, 12Bet. We bet also on 188Bet, Pinnacle and Bet365. 3 picks for today: Tottenham - West Brom @ 2 (1.5) @ 1.92 Mersin Idmanyurdu SK - Ankaragucu @ 2 (1.25) @ 1.98 Galatasaray - Istanbul BB @ 2 (1) @ 2.01 Good luck ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophocles Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System Good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System Good luck! Thanks ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System 2 WIN - 1 LOST yesterday. For today, two picks: PAOK - Levadiakos @ 2 (1.5) @ 1.82 Olympiakos - Atromitos @ 2 (1.5) @ 2.16 Good luck ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris-UK Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System 2 WIN - 1 LOST yesterday. For today, two picks: PAOK - Levadiakos @ 2 (1.5) @ 1.82 Olympiakos - Atromitos @ 2 (1.5) @ 2.16 Good luck ! I don't understand your picks... you have the odds which i can see but when you put "@ 2" that means to me the away team to win and "1" is home team and "1.5" do you mean asian handicap or -1.5 ect ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System I don't understand your picks... you have the odds which i can see but when you put "@ 2" that means to me the away team to win and "1" is home team and "1.5" do you mean asian handicap or -1.5 ect ? I explain in my first post that all my picks are Asian Handicap. And, if it is 2 (1.5) that means also 2 (+1.5). I don't put the "+" sign because it is the same thing. I put "@" sign to separate the game, picks and odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris-UK Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System I explain in my first post that all my picks are Asian Handicap. And, if it is 2 (1.5) that means also 2 (+1.5). I don't put the "+" sign because it is the same thing. I put "@" sign to separate the game, picks and odds. so for your last picks PAOK - Levadiakos @ 2 (1.5) @ 1.82 - you mean Levadiakos +1.5 asian Olympiakos - Atromitos @ 2 (1.5) @ 2.16 - you mean Atromitos +1.5 asian Correct? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System Yes, you understand correctly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris-UK Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System goodluck with your tips and system...will be watching :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System 1 WIN - 1 LOST yesterday, but the day was finished with a small profit, because we have the big odds at the winning game. For today, just one picks: Torino - Albinoleffe @ 2 (1) @ 1.99 Good luck ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 7, 2012 Author Share Posted January 7, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System Yesterday picks was winner: 1 WIN. For today, just two picks: H. Shmona - Rishon le Zion @ 2 (1.25) @ 2.02 Annan Athletic - Clyde @ 2 (0.5) @ 1.98 Good luck ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System Disappointing yesterday when we have only two picks, and both lost: 2 LOST. I hope for a comeback today when we have 10 picks : Panathinaikos - Kerkyra @ 2 (1.75) @ 2.01 Doxa Drama - Olympiakos @ 1 (2) @ 2.07 Taranto - Lumezzane @ 2 (0.75) @ 1.86 Reggiana - Pavia @ 2 (0.75) @ 1.81 Pisa - Spal @ 2 (0.75) @ 1.92 Sorrento - Monza @ 2 (0.75) @ 2.06 Lanciano - Bassano Virtus @ 2 (0.75) @ 1.85 Siracusa - Latina @ 2 (1) @ 1.84 Moreirense - Santa Clara @ 2 (0.5) @ 2.05 Ankaragucu - Besiktas @ 1 (1.5) @ 2.00 Good luck ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System Started bad (after the final results of second leagues in Italy), finally i recovered, so that at the end of the day we have profit after 5 WIN - 1.5 VOID - 3.5 LOST. What I notice is that 5 picks from Italy Serie C from 6 were winning at half time. The situation has changed radically in the second half, only 2 of the 6 games was winning. For today, two picks: Omonia - Aris @ 2 (1.75) @ 2.20 Fenerbahce - Gaziantepspor @ 2 (1.25) @ 1.99 Good luck ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System We are in an area more "gray" of the rating, with an oscillating evolution, but go ahead, there's much to late this month. In games 2 days ago, Fenerbahce returned from 0-1, from what I understand, helping by the referee who easy removal of a player from Gaziantep. That's football. 2 LOST For today, one picks from Championship: Birmingham - Ipswich @ 2 (1) @ 2.06 Good luck ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 14, 2012 Author Share Posted January 14, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System Last picks were win in 90th minutes, but, with my rating's luck, finished in 1 VOID in 91 minutes. For today, 15 picks: Leicester - Barnsley @ 2 (1) @ 1.95 Manchester Utd - Bolton @ 2 (2.25) @ 2.00 Tottenham - Wolves @ 2 (1.75) @ 1.91 Anorthosis - E.N. Paralimni @ 2 (1.5) @ 1.89 Clermont - Amiens @ 2 (0.75) @ 2.07 Olympiakos - Levadiakos @ 2 (2.25) @ 2.07 M. Netanya - H. Acre @ 2 (0.5) @ 1.88 Ashdod - Bnei Yehuda @ 2 (0.5) @ 1.81 Ironi Nir Ramat HaSharon - M. Haifa @ 1 (0.5) @ 2.01 Torino - Ascoli @ 2 (1) @ 2.00 Dundee - Livingston @ 2 (0.5) @ 2.02 Falkirk - Ayr Utd @ 2 (1.25) @ 1.85 Queen Of South - Ross County @ 1 (0.5) @ 2.09 Celtic - Dundee Utd @ 2 (1.5) @ 1.99 Tigres - G.B. Queretaro @ 2 (1.5) @ 1.95 Good luck ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 15, 2012 Author Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System Fantastic day for my rating: 3 of 3 in Israel, 5 of 7 in UK, 3 of 4 in Scottish, greeks from Olympiakos doesn't beat the spread three times in a row. My stats for yesterday was: 10.5 WIN - 2 VOID - 2.5 LOST. For today, we have 8 picks, and i wait for spreads line in Cyprus. Carpi - Viareggio 2 (1) 2.02 Cremonese - Andria 2 (1) 1.88 Trapani - Piacenza 2 (0.5) 2.19 U.N.A.M. - Monarcas 2 (0.5) 1.83 Club America - Toluca 2 (0.5) 2.04 Leixoes - Belenenses 2 (0.5) 1.81 Sivasspor - Ankaragucu 2 (1.25) 1.97 Trabzonspor - Samsunspor 2 (1.25) 2.04 Good luck ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System Well, after the best day of my rating, saturday, we have the worst day, sunday: 2 WIN - 1 LOST - 5 LOST. In the three official months and two "unofficial" months, in this weekend i have the bets day and the worst day: saturday, 8.84 € profit, with 49% yield sunday, -3.76 € deficit, with -39% yield Overall, in this two day we make profit, and in the middle of January we are still on profit. For today, just 1 picks: APOEL - Olympiakos Nikosia 2 (1.75) 1.97 Godd luck ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System APOEL make his "job" two days ago: 1 WIN. For today, 2 picks: Bastia - Le Havre @ 2 (0.75) @ 2.09 Panathinaikos - Doxa Drama @ 2 (2) @ 2.13 Good luck ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System Doxa Dramas beat the handicap again in Greece. Bastia scored in 82 minutes. Stats for last day: 1 WIN - 0.5 VOID - 0.5 LOST For today we have 3 picks: Genk - St. Truiden 2 (1.5) 1.87 Tecos - Club America 1 (0.5) 1.81 Monarcas - San Luis 2 (0.5) 2.02 Good luck ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System 2 W - 1 L yesterday, so we have profit. For today, 12 picks: West Ham - Nottingham 2 (1) 1.98 Oxford - Hereford 2 (0.75) 2.13 Plymouth - Crawley 1 (0.75) 2.05 Swindon - Macclesfield 2 (1.25) 2.02 Hoffenheim - Hannover 2 (0.5) 2.04 Linfield - Dungannon Swifts 2 (2) 2.04 H. Shmona - Ironi Nir Ramat HaSharon 2 (1) 2.11 Hapoel Beer Sheva - Hapoel Haifa 2 (0.25) 1.73 Ross County - Morton 2 (0.75) 2.07 Ayr Utd - Hamilton 1 (0.25) 1.94 Rangers - Aberdeen 2 (1.5) 1.84 Fenerbahce - Kayserispor 2 (1.25) 2.01 Good luck ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System Eqilibrium saturday: 5 W - 2 V - 5 L. I would have more expectations, but it's better that we are not on deficit. For today, 3 picks: Bnei Yehuda - Rishon le Zion 2 (1) 1.92 Siracusa - Triestina 2 (0.75) 2.02 Aves - Madeira 2 (0.5) 1.88 Good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System The stats for last day was 1 W - 1 V - 1 L. After two days of break, we have two picks for today: [TABLE] [TR] [TD=class: xl150, width: 200]Luton - Mansfield [/TD] [TD=class: xl150, width: 60]2 (1)[/TD] [TD=class: xl148, width: 37]1.86[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl150]Panathinaikos - Levadiakos[/TD] [TD=class: xl150]2 (1.75)[/TD] [TD=class: xl148]1.98 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Re: robotzel78 Elo Rating's System For the third day in a row we have the balance: 1 W - 1L. For today, one picks: [TABLE] [TR] [TD=class: xl149, width: 200]Estoril - Atltico CP Lisbon [/TD] [TD=class: xl149, width: 60]2 (0.5)[/TD] [TD=class: xl147, width: 37]1.95 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Good luck ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.32384c3055cbc1254b0eb6212fda1359.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.