Flat Racing 1st Jan

[chris34]

Little brief off out tonight, Happy new year to everyone! 1.55 Southwell Perhaps a slightly biased opinion as I have a tiny vested interest in Irish Jugger in fact back up to Southwell to see the old boy today! That said he must have an outstanding chance; Brunnello would perhaps be interesting if there was any money for him but failed to show anything in 3 runs in maidens to qualify for a harsh looking mark off 57 and picked up fairly cheaply at sales in August and may need a run. Jasmeno has a reasonable strike rate for this grade with 3 wins from 14 starts but won on the back of nearly a year off in October at Wolves over 2f further and has been well below that sort of form since off revised marks and although yard do well here she is yet to encounter the surface. Bow River Arch is still a maiden and doesnt shape as if he is about to break that unless new yard can find the key, he doesnt seem to put his all in at the finish and goes without usual headgear today. ALthough First Rock has scored twice here now he has burnt plenty of fingers on the way including me, he isnt the most genuine in the finish again and although easy winner penultimate start was well held over same CD off revised mark and similar story likely here today especially dropping back in trip, and Jugger beat him last year on 8lb worse terms so on that line Jugger should have his holding. The obvious concern for most of these including Jugger is the lack of a front runner (wouldnt be surprised to see First Rock make use of his stamina) but he is clearly in good heart finishing well from a long way back last time out over this course and remains 1lb below last winning mark over this CD and should run a solid race. 3pt win Irish Jugger 15/8 bet365 2.30 Southwell Good looking handicap and should be a true gallop with Transonic in the field and he could easily build on latest effort which was first run since a break over a trip far too short over 6f but others look more comfortably in this class. William Haigh likely to be a short priced favourite but looks well worth opposing despite having CD form which was his first win of his 3, he now finds himself 18lb higher since that win since winning at Wolves twice over further and even further last time out, looking much more at home over the 1m4f trip last time out and could find others better treated at this trip. Benandonner has a patchy record fresh but has run twice here winning a handicap off a mark of 84 on last visit back in 2008 he hasnt been at best lately but handicapper relenting and has placed off much higher marks in the past year and would have to be of interest in this race from a good draw with such a good course record with the AW king riding Luke Morris. Standpoint has only had 1 run around here and that resulted in a good effort in first time eye shield that clearly needs to work again and he did have every chance last time out and now finds himself 3lb higher and from a wide draw possibly playing for places in this field. Reve De Nuit has a good record fresh and he hasnt been seen since flopping badly at Lingfield last time out having previously won this race off a 4lb lower mark, clearly a return to this track a positive having won here twice, yard are in fantastic form and would be no surprise that he has been kept aside for this race again this year. 1.5pt win Benandonner 9/2 bet365 1.5pt win Reve De Nuit 7/1 bet365

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing 1st Jan

1.20 SOUTHWELL. Monsieur jamie is 6lb better off with Evens Stephens than when they last met, beaten 1 3/4 lengths, E S put him in his place that day granted but . . 3/1 E S to win . . 2.96 as i type jamie just to place . . . hummmmm MON JAMIE TO PLACE.

The above post is from EW Thief and was taken from a thread containing jumps and flat selections. Edited the thread now to make it a jumos thread and moved his AW selection in here. :ok