Expected goals based on U/O odds

[sdt]

Hi, I'm sure this has been asked and answered before, but I cannot find it. I'm wondering how to calculate the expected number of goals under 2.5 based on the U/O published odds for a given football match. Many thanks.

[Grex]

Re: Expected goals based on U/O odds You can easily calculate the probability based on bookies' book odds (1/odds%). However, this doesn't represent the actual probability.... it only reflects how the bookies anticipate punters will bet. The key point here is to develop a system of predicting the actual probability, and then going for those matches where you have "value" (i.e. an edge) over the bookies. In the long-term, this is the only way to have any chance of making a profit :ok