Flat Racing 7th Dec

[chris34]

1.10 Lingfield Wouldnt normally touch a seller but this isnt the worst race in the world. Those at the bottom of the weights look up against it accept maybe Finefrenzyrolling who will need to improve a few pound on what he has shown to date in first time cheekpieces. On official ratings Ezra Church is the best in here by a 1lb but he showed little interest at Southwell last time out where he is a previous CD winner and has gone well fresh in the past so was disappointing. Stevie Gee is another that is potentially well in at the weights only a 1lb worse off officially with Ezra Church, did win a claimer at Wolves in Sept but 3rd on penultimate start was a reasonable effort in a seller but bombed out disappoittingly last week around here and has shaped as if 7f around here is a minimum. Dvinsky is an out and out front runner and has shown a return to form recently and a good 2nd last time out in a handicap reads well but probably only ran upto his current mark which leaves him a bit to find at the weights and unlikely to get a soft lead with Ezra Church and a couple of the outsiders likely to race up with the pace. Pipers Piping will enjoy the strong gallop that should be available, he has refound his form recently and he is the sort of horse that holds his form well. Far too keen for his own good last time out and worth another chance has run well here before and doesnt have a huge amount to find at the weights and this race looks setup for him. Although not biggest fan of jockey she does take off 5lb which makes him look well in. 2pt win Pipers Piping (No prices available at time of posting will tweet which price I have taken but good idea to get on early as several places have tipped him up) 2.40 Lingfield Sircozy is 2 from 2 around here but is 9lb above last winning mark and hasnt been in any form over hurdles and a return to this surface will need to rekindle him. Buxfizz entered my notebook last week when 3rd around here over 2f shorter he has dropped a long way in the weights and did well from a car park draw last week, did shape as if that trip stretches him slightly and that is the worrying fact stepped up in trip and is perhaps for another day over a shorter trip. Beat Route has always struggled off this sort of mark and despite being in good form recently needs to find some improvement from somewhere. Tornado Force is another that could be stretched by stamina today but did run a good race last time out when 2nd to So Wise who went and won again off a 6lb higher mark and the 3rd also won next time out off a 1lb lower mark should come on for the run but has been off the track again for another 50 days which is slightly worrying also been risen 4lb for that effort. Royal Alcor is an interesting runner having won a classified event over the extended mile at Wolves then proved his stamina for this trip in a handicap over this trip again at Wolves off a mark of 57 this demands a lot more in a much better race off a 8lb higher mark but is unexposed and yard in good heart and has to be considered. Another that is worth a small interest is Kames Park who is massively over priced. Can easily forgive last 2 runs to soft at Yarmouth and race not run to suit last time out. Had previously shown promise at Kempton getting close at finish, he isnt straight forward and things need to drop right but his tactics are well suited to around here and is 2 from 5 around here and is now 5lb below last winning mark and yard in great form again with there huge AW string! Kiss A Prince is another that is well treated on old form, 7lb below last winning mark and is a 5 time winner around here and showed a bit more spark last time out under an inexperienced rider but Kelly takes the ride today and should go well in race likely to be run to suit. 1pt win Royal Alcor 9/2 lads 0.5pt win Kames Park 16/1 vc 1.5pt win Kiss A Prince 9/2 lads

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing 7th Dec 4.50 Kempton True To Form has found a great level of form recently but that consistency has been in selling company and will find life a lot tougher back in handicaps having been well beaten off marks in the 70's now rated 84. Ellemujie has had several chances off this sort of mark and it has just looked a little bit beyond him and depsite yard going well and he is clearly in good heart needs to find a bit more. Emerald Witness returned to form last time out and is very well treated on really old form but drawn out in car park no easy task again. Songburst only just scraped home last time out and did shape as if a step up in trip would suit but this looks a tad more competitive and may find easier opportunities over the winter off a 3lb higher mark. Epernay is another that won a weaker race last time out and this looks a lot hotter than what he ran and won in last time out 4lb higher and blinkers will need to work for a second time. For me a wide open handicap is worth a small E/W bet on Scamperdale who looks a bit over priced currently. Generally consistent on the AW during the winter months and is now 6lb below last winning mark and has a 50% strike rate on E/W bets on the AW and 11 wins from 55 runs. Ran a good race in a 4 runner claimer last time out which should have put him spot on for this and handicapper giving him a real chance dropping him a massive 5lb in one go! 1pt e/w Scamperdale 14/1 lads