Flat Racing; Tuesday 6th December

[Lars]

12:00 Southwell This looks an ideal opportunity for TAKAJAN to record his 4^th career success at this venue, especially as he’s now dropped to a favourable mark and has the assistance of Silvestre De Sousa, who rides Southwell really well. The Mark Brisbourne trained four year old has only won three times during his career, all on the fibresand and has won off a rating of 60 (jockey claim included) here, so his current mark of 57 looks very workable. He’s had a quiet season really but looked to be coming back to something like decent form in the early autumn, running nice races on the polytrack at Wolverhampton off higher marks even though Dunstall Park isn’t ideal for him. Finally given some assistance by the handicapper on his last couple of starts, he shaped as being back to something like his best last time. Although beaten 6 lengths, he was forced wide throughout (ended up making his challenge on the near-side rail) and wasn’t given a hard time whatsoever by his apprentice rider. It was a promising effort nonetheless in a race that was a little bit stronger than today’s contest. With Silvestre De Sousa on-board (first ride for the yard), he looks a decent proposition in a race that shouldn’t take a great deal of winning. Market leaders include Wellmarked who is an interesting prospect but his ability to take to the fibresand has to be taken on trust and at that price, he’s worth taking on. Yours, another market principle, has similar credentials but comes off a fairly hefty break and also makes his fibresand debut, so wouldn’t be the safest betting proposition. Suddenly Susan is consistent but I’d hope that she’d find a couple too good again today, while I’m no great fan of Greenhead High at all and although he handles fibresand, I don’t think there’s much scope off his current mark. The rest are big prices and don’t look any great shakes and I feel Takajan is value at his current 7/1 price-tag. He’s starting to become well-handicapped now and can easily run to a mark of around 65 at this venue, so with more positive handling today he should go well. There isn’t a great deal of pace likely but that shouldn’t inconvenience the selection too much, as he’s won off a muddling gallop before. The stable form is a bit of a concern but the booking of SDS obviously means they mean business and I just feel he’s been lined up for this sort of race for a while now, and should have a decent shout if the handbrake is off. TAKAJAN; 2pts @ 7/1 Bet365 (bog)

[cpo]

Re: Flat Racing; Tuesday 6th December 3.30 Southwell Jonnie Skull 1pt e/w 16/1 Bet365 I think Jonnie Skull is very interesting here. I think there have been valid excuses for his last 2 runs, where he has been ridden by weak apprentices and may have just been a little high in the weights. He is now back down to his last winning mark of 56 which came at Wolverhampton in September this year. Luke Morris has been booked for the ride and he does have 3 CD wins to his name (the last of them coming under Luke Morris). Lujano who is likely to be near the head of the market come race time beat my selection by just over 4 lengths a couple of runs ago but Jonnie Skull has an 11lb swing in the weights with that horse. Add to that the fact he is now ridden by Luke Morris and I think he has a great chance of at least making the frame. He loves to lead and often does too much in front which leaves him vulnerable in the closing stages but Luke Morris is one of the best jockeys on the all weather and hopefully he will get him settled up top. Southwell I dare say is this horses favourite track with 3 of his career wins coming here and he did win this race back in 2009. Last year around this time he was trained by someone else but now he is back with his old trainer and they look as though they are trying for another win in this race.