Flat Racing; Tuesday 6th December

[Lars]

12:00 Southwell This looks an ideal opportunity for TAKAJAN to record his 4^th career success at this venue, especially as he’s now dropped to a favourable mark and has the assistance of Silvestre De Sousa, who rides Southwell really well. The Mark Brisbourne trained four year old has only won three times during his career, all on the fibresand and has won off a rating of 60 (jockey claim included) here, so his current mark of 57 looks very workable. He’s had a quiet season really but looked to be coming back to something like decent form in the early autumn, running nice races on the polytrack at Wolverhampton off higher marks even though Dunstall Park isn’t ideal for him. Finally given some assistance by the handicapper on his last couple of starts, he shaped as being back to something like his best last time. Although beaten 6 lengths, he was forced wide throughout (ended up making his challenge on the near-side rail) and wasn’t given a hard time whatsoever by his apprentice rider. It was a promising effort nonetheless in a race that was a little bit stronger than today’s contest. With Silvestre De Sousa on-board (first ride for the yard), he looks a decent proposition in a race that shouldn’t take a great deal of winning. Market leaders include Wellmarked who is an interesting prospect but his ability to take to the fibresand has to be taken on trust and at that price, he’s worth taking on. Yours, another market principle, has similar credentials but comes off a fairly hefty break and also makes his fibresand debut, so wouldn’t be the safest betting proposition. Suddenly Susan is consistent but I’d hope that she’d find a couple too good again today, while I’m no great fan of Greenhead High at all and although he handles fibresand, I don’t think there’s much scope off his current mark. The rest are big prices and don’t look any great shakes and I feel Takajan is value at his current 7/1 price-tag. He’s starting to become well-handicapped now and can easily run to a mark of around 65 at this venue, so with more positive handling today he should go well. There isn’t a great deal of pace likely but that shouldn’t inconvenience the selection too much, as he’s won off a muddling gallop before. The stable form is a bit of a concern but the booking of SDS obviously means they mean business and I just feel he’s been lined up for this sort of race for a while now, and should have a decent shout if the handbrake is off. TAKAJAN; 2pts @ 7/1 Bet365 (bog)

[cpo]

Re: Flat Racing; Tuesday 6th December 3.30 Southwell Jonnie Skull 1pt e/w 16/1 Bet365 I think Jonnie Skull is very interesting here. I think there have been valid excuses for his last 2 runs, where he has been ridden by weak apprentices and may have just been a little high in the weights. He is now back down to his last winning mark of 56 which came at Wolverhampton in September this year. Luke Morris has been booked for the ride and he does have 3 CD wins to his name (the last of them coming under Luke Morris). Lujano who is likely to be near the head of the market come race time beat my selection by just over 4 lengths a couple of runs ago but Jonnie Skull has an 11lb swing in the weights with that horse. Add to that the fact he is now ridden by Luke Morris and I think he has a great chance of at least making the frame. He loves to lead and often does too much in front which leaves him vulnerable in the closing stages but Luke Morris is one of the best jockeys on the all weather and hopefully he will get him settled up top. Southwell I dare say is this horses favourite track with 3 of his career wins coming here and he did win this race back in 2009. Last year around this time he was trained by someone else but now he is back with his old trainer and they look as though they are trying for another win in this race.

[cpo]

Re: Flat Racing; Tuesday 6th December

12:00 Southwell This looks an ideal opportunity for TAKAJAN to record his 4^th career success at this venue, especially as he’s now dropped to a favourable mark and has the assistance of Silvestre De Sousa, who rides Southwell really well. The Mark Brisbourne trained four year old has only won three times during his career, all on the fibresand and has won off a rating of 60 (jockey claim included) here, so his current mark of 57 looks very workable. He’s had a quiet season really but looked to be coming back to something like decent form in the early autumn, running nice races on the polytrack at Wolverhampton off higher marks even though Dunstall Park isn’t ideal for him. Finally given some assistance by the handicapper on his last couple of starts, he shaped as being back to something like his best last time. Although beaten 6 lengths, he was forced wide throughout (ended up making his challenge on the near-side rail) and wasn’t given a hard time whatsoever by his apprentice rider. It was a promising effort nonetheless in a race that was a little bit stronger than today’s contest. With Silvestre De Sousa on-board (first ride for the yard), he looks a decent proposition in a race that shouldn’t take a great deal of winning. Market leaders include Wellmarked who is an interesting prospect but his ability to take to the fibresand has to be taken on trust and at that price, he’s worth taking on. Yours, another market principle, has similar credentials but comes off a fairly hefty break and also makes his fibresand debut, so wouldn’t be the safest betting proposition. Suddenly Susan is consistent but I’d hope that she’d find a couple too good again today, while I’m no great fan of Greenhead High at all and although he handles fibresand, I don’t think there’s much scope off his current mark. The rest are big prices and don’t look any great shakes and I feel Takajan is value at his current 7/1 price-tag. He’s starting to become well-handicapped now and can easily run to a mark of around 65 at this venue, so with more positive handling today he should go well. There isn’t a great deal of pace likely but that shouldn’t inconvenience the selection too much, as he’s won off a muddling gallop before. The stable form is a bit of a concern but the booking of SDS obviously means they mean business and I just feel he’s been lined up for this sort of race for a while now, and should have a decent shout if the handbrake is off. TAKAJAN; 2pts @ 7/1 Bet365 (bog)

Already into 4/1

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing; Tuesday 6th December

Already into 4/1

Bad news most probably, wouldn't be surprised if it was a non-runner. F**king Monterosso :eyes ;)

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing; Tuesday 6th December 1.00 Southwell Even Stevens is a useful horse around here with 4 wins from 5 but they were in much lesser events than this and still 10lb above last win and although clearly in need of the run after a short break last time out will need a career best off top weight looks a big ask. Monsieur Jamie doesnt look much value at 5/2 he was better drawn that day and has it all to do from an unfavoured low draw over the flying 5f, 4lb rise doesnt look excessive though. Crimson Cloud is another that won last time out when better drawn but that was in first time blinkers so they also need to have the same effect this time but looks more the sort to follow up with just a 3lb rise looking more than fair if he can overcome the draw and looks well worth the saver bet. For me Whozthecat looks a good bet despite the worst draw in stall 1 but just maybe with the smaller field than normal over this trip he can get down the middle. He looks the sort that should relish this course over the flying 5f he is all about speed and can be a bit moody at times but has dropped to a career low mark now 9lb below last winning mark but has ran some promising races over the summer including last time out at Wolves to suggest he could pick something up this winter. 2pt win Whozthecat 5/1 pp 1pt win Crimson Cloud 7/2 lads 1.30 Southwell Be interesting to see how the draw works out in the first division of this race. Lenny Bee was possibly undone by the draw on penultimate start over CD but still ran a solid race, followed that up with another good effort last time out at Lingfield, 2lb higher today and poor draw again enough to oppose for win purpose again. Defence Council makes fibresand debut after a reasonable effort last time out on polytrack but a very ungamely attitude is off putting and looks the sort that could be best fresh. Island Legend looks high enough in the weights on his effort behind Lenny Bee last time out. Red Cape hasnt been seen at this track for years but never showed anything on a few starts and despiting running well lately on polytrack has it to prove on fibresand. Mottley Crewe has been in good form recently and been holding his form well. Did clear best over this trip of those drawn low 3 starts ago and followed that effort up with a win over 6f, ran another solid race over 6f at Wolves last time out and although a further 2lb higher this drop back to 5f looks ideal over this CD and much better drawn today and can improve his course record of 2 from 3 so far! The other that interests me is Sleepy Blue Ocean who is also a CD winner and although that win came off a 10lb lower mark he has been running well of late including last time out around here over 6f. Runs off the same mark today and well drawn for this return to 5f although perhaps not best drawn in stall 4 should find himself coming up the middle and has the best AW rider on board in Luke Morris and has to be considered in current form. 2pt win Mottley Crewe 5/1 lads 1pt win Sleepy Blue Ocean 7/1 pp

[Trotter]

Re: Flat Racing; Tuesday 6th December Be interesting to see what happens with the draw in the 3 five furlong races For a year or more a low draw was definately best and a high draw was the kiss of death but it seems to have lost the pattern over the last few months........I've no longer got a handle on it at all...........:wall

[BKI Punter]

Re: Flat Racing; Tuesday 6th December 1:30 Southwell Captain Scooby 1pt EW - 14/1 (PP) Kept backing him but he had no luck in running every time, then when I miss him he racks up a treble in a week. He enjoys five furlongs on a slow surface so has ideal conditions tomorrow, and taking into account the claim he's only 1lb above his last winning mark, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him go close.

[egger74]

Re: Flat Racing; Tuesday 6th December

Originally Posted by Lars 12:00 Southwell This looks an ideal opportunity for TAKAJAN to record his 4^th career success at this venue, especially as he’s now dropped to a favourable mark and has the assistance of Silvestre De Sousa, who rides Southwell really well. The Mark Brisbourne trained four year old has only won three times during his career, all on the fibresand and has won off a rating of 60 (jockey claim included) here, so his current mark of 57 looks very workable. He’s had a quiet season really but looked to be coming back to something like decent form in the early autumn, running nice races on the polytrack at Wolverhampton off higher marks even though Dunstall Park isn’t ideal for him. Finally given some assistance by the handicapper on his last couple of starts, he shaped as being back to something like his best last time. Although beaten 6 lengths, he was forced wide throughout (ended up making his challenge on the near-side rail) and wasn’t given a hard time whatsoever by his apprentice rider. It was a promising effort nonetheless in a race that was a little bit stronger than today’s contest. With Silvestre De Sousa on-board (first ride for the yard), he looks a decent proposition in a race that shouldn’t take a great deal of winning. Market leaders include Wellmarked who is an interesting prospect but his ability to take to the fibresand has to be taken on trust and at that price, he’s worth taking on. Yours, another market principle, has similar credentials but comes off a fairly hefty break and also makes his fibresand debut, so wouldn’t be the safest betting proposition. Suddenly Susan is consistent but I’d hope that she’d find a couple too good again today, while I’m no great fan of Greenhead High at all and although he handles fibresand, I don’t think there’s much scope off his current mark. The rest are big prices and don’t look any great shakes and I feel Takajan is value at his current 7/1 price-tag. He’s starting to become well-handicapped now and can easily run to a mark of around 65 at this venue, so with more positive handling today he should go well. There isn’t a great deal of pace likely but that shouldn’t inconvenience the selection too much, as he’s won off a muddling gallop before. The stable form is a bit of a concern but the booking of SDS obviously means they mean business and I just feel he’s been lined up for this sort of race for a while now, and should have a decent shout if the handbrake is off. TAKAJAN; 2pts @ 7/1 >Bet365 (bog)

think another Irish gamble will be landed here Wellmarked :hope

[Haystacks]

Re: Flat Racing; Tuesday 6th December Obviously Lars & Monte have done superbly to get 7-1, but the current best price of 100-30 looks very short for yard whose last 19 runners over the past month or so have largely been beaten out of sight. If connections aren't actually part of this gamble then the bookmaker's satchels are likely to be brimming later on. Personally, I wouldn't touch the current 100-30 with a bargepole (but of course wouldn't mind being on at 7-1!). EDIT: Now 3-1!

[Trotter]

Re: Flat Racing; Tuesday 6th December Sou 1.30 - Sleepy Blue Ocean - win at 7/1 bog PP Has a good record here with 3 CD wins to his name and now drops back to 5F after a couple of runs over 6F. Was beaten under 2L last time which is pretty good as he's never won at 6F and shows his current well being. He was in the lead until headed inside the final furlong - he just doesn't seem to get home over 6F Drawn in 4 which is the middle of the track and the best place to be here Competitive race and plenty in with chances I'm worried about my old friend Luscivious who I've backed twice and he's won for me at 8/1 and 16/1. But he's only had one run in 10 months and hasn't got a good record fresh. Besides, I bottled out of backing him at 20/1 last night so I'm not going to back him now at 10's. I'll be miffed if he wins......but if he's anywhere ready he'll win by a mile

[Trotter]

Re: Flat Racing; Tuesday 6th December 1,00 - Crimson Cloud at 3/1 bog PP A few CD winners in the field and I don't there's much point looking outside of them to find the winner Crimson Cloud has it on CD speed figs - on my ratings his last win here was about 30 lbs 'quicker' than Monsieur Jamie's last win Should be a cracker of a race !

[Trotter]

Re: Flat Racing; Tuesday 6th December 12.30 - First Bid at 10/1 Bet365 Of the ones at the head of the market I prefer Wicked Wench over Whisky Bravo But I think there might be a surprise here with one of the outsiders First Bid has steadly been getting closer to winning over the last few runs. He acts on soft going, has dropped a pound since a good run LTO and makes his AW debut

[DLL]

Re: Flat Racing; Tuesday 6th December

Bad news most probably, wouldn't be surprised if it was a non-runner. F**king Monterosso :eyes ;)

Drifted out to 7/1 but there's another monster gamble in the race Footstepsofspring 16/1 into 7/2. :eek

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Flat Racing; Tuesday 6th December Keep a wee eye on Mr Dandy Nicholls today, he's just won the first.

[Trotter]

Re: Flat Racing; Tuesday 6th December Phew...........I put the right one in BBotD ! It's really annoying when you post 2 or 3 selections and put the wrong one in the comp ..........:unsure

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing; Tuesday 6th December Lovely winner trotter! :ok