Sophocles' Stargate System

[Sophocles]

I have worked on developing a football betting system on and off. Initially I worked on Overs/Unders and did have some success but I abandoned the idea because I wasn’t too happy with the odds offered compared to the probability of the over/under being achieved. So over the past 2 weeks I restarted by research looking to find patterns in performance and to use those probabilities to bet accordingly. My system looked at the following leagues: Germany, England, Italy, Spain, France, Holland and Turkey. I intend to add a few more but not much more than that. The reason is that my system needs 2 things: 1) Competition Rankings, 2) Historical Fixtures, results, and odds. So I look at the success a team had over the last 5 years. The system analyses the winning, drawing and losing percentages both away and at home. Based on the current performance of the team, my system estimates the probability of a win. Then the system compares the probability with the odds. If the odds are favourable then the bet is taken. I believe this system will provide better value bets compared to an under/over system because the probabilities over time fluctuate and are not as straight forward as in an under/over system. The system looked at results over the last 5 yrs and according to back tests the strike rate has been 60% with a 24% yield over 1200 results. The problem with the back test was that it wasn’t dynamic. I took the year-end results and worked backwards. Hence the actual performance will not be as great. Therefore, instead of beginning the system from day 1, I will start the system today. The teams have played some games and so the system can work. The idea is to run the system from Dec 1^st to the end of the season.

[Sophocles]

Re: Sophocles' Stargate System Please note that all system bets are singles and an equal amount is bet. For this thread I will use a starting bank of 1000 and place a 10 unit bet on each selection. I will also be taking some these bets live. System Selections for this weekend: Real Sociedad - Malaga (odds: 2.40) Montpellier - Lorient (odds: 1.80) Besiktas - Ordusport (odds: 1.70) Starting bank: 1000 Current bank: na Total staked: 30 Number of bets: 3 Winning bets: na Losing bets: na Strike rate: na Yield: na Profit: na