MattyNeth Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 Prices from Ladbrokes South Africa 9/4 England 6/4 Draw 11/8 Probably best waiting for team news, especially concerning England's bowlers. Game is at Port Elizabeth isn't it - anyone got any historical data for that ground - does it have a record of results or draws? If forecast is good I'll probably lay the draw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa Match being played at Centurion Park 8 matches 7 completed 1 draw The draw was the first match played there, drawn with less than 2 days play completed, with the final 3 days all washed out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa But with England unable to lose the series and with a lightweight bowling attack likely, I cannot see England pushing to hard for the victory if we get a situation like the 2nd or 4th tests. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted January 18, 2005 Author Share Posted January 18, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa cheers Dave - interesting stats there. Both bowling attacks have been pretty hit and miss throughout. Both sides seems seem to be averaging over 300 in each innings, and like you I can't see England going completely flat out if there are similar circumstances. But 5 days with no weather interuptions is a long time. Why does there seem to be issues with bad light there - or is it local conditions in Durban and Joburg that caused the problems in the 2nd and 4th tests - didn't seem to be issues in 1st and 3rd? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa Right, sit tight, this could be boring. Weather:- Yahoo and CNN say rain showers friday, scattered t/storms saturday, cloudy in the 80s from then on. Interestingly they predict rain today and thursday, thunderstorms wednesday.I say this because if thats all correct they cant be doing much work on the wicket from now on, and it will surely stay covered until the test, so it wont start particularly dry. This leads into the toss, as Dave said, 8 matches, only Sri Lanka chose to bat and they lost by 6 wickets. SA have won the toss here 3 times and always bowled. That draw there was no play after day 2, sorry if Dave already said that. There should have been another draw, against England on the last tour in the last test in a dead series, but Cronje wangled a result for the same reason we all belong to PL (allegedly) and both teams forfeited an innings. In the official blurb it says it is one of the quickest pitches in SA, and doesnt really suit spinners, but apparently comes on to the bat! Bear that in mind when I say 400 has been passed only twice. 448 SA v SRI 2002/3 and 604-6d SA v WI 2003/4. I have not read a report on that last match but if the WIs bowled like they did against England in 2004 that may prove why. Gibbs, Smith and Kallis all got 100s in that match, as did Boucher v WI 98/99 and Pollock v SRI. 13 test hundreds have been scored here in total. Barring that 600 score v WIs, which I am tempted to put down as a decent batting side v an inconsistent bowling side, there has been only 2 opening partnerships over 50 on this ground in tests (53 and 82) Smith and Gibbs put on 301 in that match, but WI used 8 bowlers, the main 4 being Dillon, Drakes, Edwards and Collymore (skin and rice pudding!!) the 1996/7 Aussies were dismissed here for 220 and 185 and lost. I think its all on team news, Flintoff fit to bowl, Harmison fit at all. Smith allowed to play etc. If Smith doesnt play (and he will) Boje would captain and he is pretty negative, but do they want Boje to play as spinners dont suit? The toss is mega IMO, and the winner will bowl, regardless of possible fatigue, due to history and the probability of the pitch staying covered in the build up. Hills say SA 5/2 draw 13/10 England 6/4, but interestingly the series odds are England 1/4 Draw 11/4, does that add up? Possible bets, lay the draw, Harmison top bowler (because if he is fit this wicket should suit him down to the ground) and are there any under/over odds for the first innings score, because under looks promising. Is anybody still awake....? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAULM03 Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa top write up swooper:ok Just the kind of info we need. I'm with the general consensus that laying the draw is a good option. I'm of the opinion that both sides will be going flat out. England will not want to draw this series after the enormous amount of work they've put into going 2-1 up, similarly SA will not want to lose the series and are playing to defend an impressive home record. I also like the look of Harmison top bowler. Errm, sorry i've more or less repeated what everyone else said:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted January 18, 2005 Author Share Posted January 18, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa brilliant Swoop:clap Betfair have South Africa to back at 4.0, England to back at 2.98 and Draw 2.38. I'm pretty much level on the series, so not sure whether to tip the balance either way on this one. If anything I'm laying the draw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa Sitting comfortably? then I'll begin. I've gone into Cricinfo archive to try to find out if there had been any particular changes at Centurion before the high-scoring SA v WI match, as the fact that this is the last test before this one is confusing, ie new groundsman, changed loam on pitch, etc. And I think all I've confirmed is that the WIs bowling that test was dire! In that test SA became only the second team ever to record 4 consecutive 1st innings scores of 500 plus (all against WI) and the report described the bowling as "wayward, shoddy and toothless". Graeme Smith said it was the greenest pitch he'd ever seen at the ground, he thought it was a 280-300 track, the start was delayed due to heavy rain and the pitch started damp, all in all its what bowlers dream of and I'm putting this one down to a flash in the pan as the WIs bowlers were inept and demoralised. So i'm still convinced its a bowling wicket really. SA have won 6 out of the 7 results, the other being the fiddled match mentioned above. Although everybody bowls on winning the toss, there is an equal record of winning batting 1st and 2nd, 3 each. The big backer of laying the draw is tests here are quite often weather affected, but only 2 have gone to a 5th day! (not including the fiddle) Last year the WI went from 263-3 to 348ao on the 5th, and in the other SRI went from 180-3 to 245ao, and SA only got the required 124 for 7 wickets! So the wicket deteriorates rapidly. The highest 4th innings score is Englands 251-8 in the fiddle, followed by SAs 226-4. Low scoring game I reckon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Postman Pat Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa Saffies have been bragging about how then make Centurion into whatever pitch they want it to be with the groundsman. However, we bowled them out in 2 sessions with one out of form bowler and one Sunday league bowler. Myself, I'm going to leave this one and just enjoy the spectical, it's been a great series. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted January 19, 2005 Share Posted January 19, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa I dont disagree with that, Postman, but as its been apparently raining since close of play monday, and presumably the wicket is staying covered until friday due to more rain forecast, the groundsman cant really do a lot to change the wicket IMO, and SA certainly didnt expect to lose at lunch! Anyway, they need a result wicket, which this is, and it makes you wonder why they dont play the final test here every series, but as weve batted and bowled better than them most of the series its difficult to see what they would want. Team news. Flintoff has 'Posterior Impingement' which is apparently uneven bone growth in the heel, but he is expected to play with pain-killers and then fly home for an operation which will keep him out for 3 months. Harmison is also expected to play but will also then fly home. Giles and both Jones will be fit. Steyn and Amla are both dropped, and SA have named an 11 man squad with Andre Nel as cover for Langeveldt, who broke his hand in the 3rd test. So Smith must be playing and I think they have just named the 11 early as a show of faith to the team. Still says rain all the way through until saturday, then cloudy, around 80 from then on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted January 19, 2005 Share Posted January 19, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa Betfair have 4.1 SA, 3.1 England and 2.28 the draw. Now I know I'm gonna get ripped into about this, but here goes: Certain bookies are running a book on the highest opening partnership, the best odds being 1.81 England (Betfair) 2.1 SA (Skybet), but Stan James and Skybet offer 34.0 and 26.0 respectively for a tie. Now I know this is a stupid bet, but if you read what I put above about only ever being 3 opening partnerships over 50, surely the chances are narrowed as this is generally a low scoring, bowling wicket. The opening partnerships in tests are: 14,5,23,26,53,0,19,0,1,82,4,1,28,17,6,9,34,45,23,0,301,22,18. That translates to; 9/23 in single figures, 13/23 under 20, 18/23 under 28. Now I'm not sure about the maths and percentages of this, and theres a lot of luck involved granted, but if this wicket is covered before play for awhile and starts green, and the bowlers hit their line straight away (which Pollock and Hoggard are likely to do, maybe Langeveldt, ok Harmys dodgy!) the chances of an early wicket have to be good. And the forecast doesnt improve until the 3rd day, and then still cloudy, so both teams are likely to be in the same boat. Anyway, its just a thought, and a novelty bet really. Somebody tell me I'm being stupid before I waste my money!! ;) :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted January 19, 2005 Share Posted January 19, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa PS That 11/4 Drawn Series at Hills has gone, not surprising as the SA win 5th test was only 5/2! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Postman Pat Posted January 19, 2005 Share Posted January 19, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa Doing abit of research and reading. Domestic games played on this pitch out of 5 matches 4 have been drawn this season with 1 result thanks to a sporting declaration. Apparently the pitch seems to have flattened out to what it used to be and will take spin in the final two days. With Giles and Boje the two spinners the batsmen will not exactly be losing any sleep. I know SA will try and force a result but reading a interview with Trescothwick I think England will be made up with the draw. Alot of tired bodies out there. IMO man for man England are the better side (just) I think they will get themselves into a postion to dictate terms in this game. No bet but I would lay South Africa if pushed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa I've slept on it and I'm going to have a silly, small bet on the tied opening partnership at Stan James @ 34.0. I just think its value as 18/23 opening partnerships are under 28 so if I'm right and wickets fall before then its got to be a value bet. I've taken into account it may have flattened out but it will start damp due to covers and under cloud. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAULM03 Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa good luck swooper, i'll be watching with interest.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa Racing Post says Stan James price for this tie is 100/1!! Once I'm back off the floor I'm going for a nose! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa Racing Post is wrong, its 33/1. Cant find anything for leading bowler in match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Im offering bankers Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa Just been reading Swoopermans amazing info, and if it has been raining and cloudy....tomorrow the overcast conditions will make perfectly for one man.....Mathew Hoggard. The ball will be swinging at right angles for him and there could also be an unsung hero(if hes picked) in Jimmy Anderson. With the pitch stats and the conditions....teams will be scoring under 300 I think...and if your betting in running, your better off betting on the batsmen to get under the total given. Strauss once again will be Englands top batsmen. Ntini and pollock will be swing the ball as well....and Strauss is the only guy in our camp thats has good concentration as well as superb technique to cope with the conditions. I cant see a batsmen scoring a hundred here, and in running bets for the next wicket to fall could be value on bowled...and LBW. So although the pitch will be good for harmo...he aint got a consistent line.....where as hoggard as stated already that his job is to the do the donkey work and put it there and there abouts. He must be a flying talking Donkey(like in Shrek) because seven wickets in an innings is some donkey!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted January 21, 2005 Share Posted January 21, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa Cricinfo says heavy skies, green pitch!! Seems to think Andre Nel in for Langeveldt, Andrew Hall in for Dippenar, but not confirmed yet. Looks like SA going for the beefy approach! With weather conditions confirmed I've had a small dabble on Boucher and Geraint Jones as top scores in 1st innings for respective teams at 12s and 16s respectively, singles and double. Just thinking early wickets and these 2 bat aggressively to stage fightbacks. My heart says England but my head says SA! They're fresher and if the stats stand up we can lose a day and a half and probably still get a result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie-chucker Posted January 21, 2005 Share Posted January 21, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa A result wicket. SA to win on morning of 5th day. Despite the esprit de corps I think England are mentally and physically 'shot' and SA's influx of Andrew Hall and Eskimo Nel will give them legs. Unless, England toss and Harmison early... Match result not a big betting proposition, so like Swoop novelty approach and tickles in-running. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Im offering bankers Posted January 21, 2005 Share Posted January 21, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa I think the team that bowls first is the winner.....simple as! Whoever wins the toss is going to bowl and will win the match. So whoever wins the toss and bowls...they are going to be your winner! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swooperman Posted January 21, 2005 Share Posted January 21, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa History doesnt back that, even split between bowling/batting first winners. The wicket/conditions wont improve, just who uses them best. talksport seem to think lewis playing! I agree pie-chucker Ithink fresh SA bowlers may be key. Possibly no play today, but still think 3 or 3 1/2 days will produce result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Im offering bankers Posted January 21, 2005 Share Posted January 21, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa The Wicket will get better through the days...and whoever bats first...will lose. Never mind the stats....with the weather conditions as they are, the team batting first will lose. The ball will swing in the first innings (probably throughout the match) but with the wicket also been wet and moist, there will be seem movement, swing and variable bounce. I agree with you swooperman that it will only take 3 1/2 days to get a result. So if there is going to be a result, it will be England. England have a specialist swing bowler in Hoggard, who is on fire at the moment. Also Flintoff and harmison can swing the ball as well as jones who is good with old ball by reverse swinging it. Taking this into account...and if England win the toss, England look really tempting for the win (IF THERE IS A RESULT) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Im offering bankers Posted January 21, 2005 Share Posted January 21, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa Also I had a bet on Strauss to be top scorer. Can anyone help me on the rules. Does Strauss have to bat twice...and what happens if only he gets to bat twice and the others dont (apart from Trescothic of course who opens with him) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted January 21, 2005 Share Posted January 21, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa Doesn't matter how many times everyone bats, but why the hell would you place a bet without knowing the rules? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2damnhype Posted January 21, 2005 Share Posted January 21, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa I O B - top batsman bets on matches are 1st Inns score only. Fair point by Dave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted January 21, 2005 Share Posted January 21, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa Lucky I didn't place a bet then. Is that rule the same for all bookies 2damn? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evtherev Posted January 21, 2005 Share Posted January 21, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa The Wicket will get better through the days...and whoever bats first...will lose. Never mind the stats....with the weather conditions as they are, the team batting first will lose. The ball will swing in the first innings (probably throughout the match) but with the wicket also been wet and moist, there will be seem movement, swing and variable bounce. I agree with you swooperman that it will only take 3 1/2 days to get a result. So if there is going to be a result, it will be England. England have a specialist swing bowler in Hoggard, who is on fire at the moment. Also Flintoff and harmison can swing the ball as well as jones who is good with old ball by reverse swinging it. Taking this into account...and if England win the toss, England look really tempting for the win (IF THERE IS A RESULT) The problem at the moment is that even if harmison does swing the ball its too wide for it to matter. This is some of the most economical bowling hes ever done, because no one can reach it......:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evtherev Posted January 21, 2005 Share Posted January 21, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa Also I had a bet on Strauss to be top scorer. Can anyone help me on the rules. Does Strauss have to bat twice...and what happens if only he gets to bat twice and the others dont (apart from Trescothic of course who opens with him) :welcome :D maybe you should read the rules of cricket before betting on it :ok Good luck Evan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Im offering bankers Posted January 21, 2005 Share Posted January 21, 2005 Re: Cricket, 5th and final test England v South Africa I know the rules of cricket W**ker... but for a batsmen to be score the most runs in the fifth test he would have to bat twice because their is 2 innings!!! But 2damnhype says only the first innings count. So how am I wrong for asking if its based on two innings?? Because correct me if im wrong.....for an England player to score the most runs in a test he has to bat TWICE. But 2damnhype says it only counts on first innings. So How do I need to know the rules of cricket, I think you mean the bookies need to know the rules of cricket WAN*ER!!!:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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