Jumps Racing Thursday 1st of December

[Aidymac]

Minder - Leicester 1:30 I think there is value with Minder in this 6 runner race, i think the favourite Bay Central is a very dodgy horse, having fallen and been pulled up on its last two outings, i think the 6/5 is bordering on ridiculous for the favourite. My selection is the second youngest horse in the race, being a 5 year old and may have the potential to improve. Was well beat last time out at Warwick but that was a far more competitibe race and didnt run all that badly two starts back when 3rd to Marc Aurele. Has yet to win a race on flat of over the jumps but in a very weak race like this and now several pounds lower and with a new tongue-strap on, against all these very poor horses, 14/1 may be a tad too big. Portman also does well at Leicester. WIN @ 14/1 Bet365 BOG

[Lars]

Re: Jumps Racing Thursday 1st of December 14:45 Wincanton TARKARI will get his preferred ground conditions for the first time in a fair while and drops to the weakest race he’s contested over hurdles for some time, he has definite claims here at what looks a big price for such a classy type. The 6 year old is a winner in Ireland but has failed to get in front in this country when trained by Evan Williams but has put up some decent displays in defeat, the last of which only was in September. That was at Market Rasen in a listed contest and although getting outpaced early on(ground too quick for him/track too sharp), he boxed on well, showing that a mark around 130 wouldn’t be insurmountable once getting his ground. He didn’t show much at Ascot when last seen but that was a very competitive race and he was eased once his chance was gone. Connections still obviously thought he could be competitive in the Greatwood and had planned on going there but they were balloted out. With overnight rain forecast, Wincanton is likely to be on the soft side and Tarkari has plenty of form with those conditions underfoot, winning on heavy ground in Ireland on two occasions. The forecasted rain will be of major assistance and even if it doesn’t materialise, the current “good to soft” doesn’t put him out of contention by any stretch of the imagination. Tarkari has now dropped to a mark of 124, but he was putting up decent displays on unsuitable ground only in September, and I feel that it’s definitely an exploitable mark. Compared to the graded hurdle races he was competing in during the early part of 2011 (before a failed chasing campaign), this is far easier and he’s now pitched at a realistic level, with the first time tongue-tie being a positive too. Another big positive is that Evan Williams can do little wrong at the moment, running at a 38.1% strike-rate in the past two weeks. It certainly seems a good time to catch his horses and with plenty likely to suit, Tarkari should be shorter than 12/1. It isn’t a bet to be too confident with, as there are plenty of unexposed horses in the line-up but he’ll likely have plenty to suit, and if the ground comes up soft then he deserves to be around a 7/1 shot. I’ll take my chances that the overnight rain materialises, as if it does than this price will likely be very big by post-time. TARKARI; 2pts @ 12/1 Bet365 (bog