Flat Racing - Thursday 24th of November

[Haystacks]

Lucas Pitt - Kem 5.10 (12-1 LAD BOG) I fancied this one and was waiting to see whether any bigger odds might become available, but in the last few minutes it's been slashed in price to 7/1 and 8/1 at three other bookies. Lot to like about reappearance last month over CD racing very wide behind the 'thrown-in at the handicap' Fascinating. Ran poorly last time, but that was probably due to heavy ground at Ffos Las. Broke maiden nicely over CD about a year ago, and only one lb higher than that mark today (and much better drawn than last course appearance).

[Cowan]

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 24th of November These races have not been easy to read and I'm still to get the measure of Kempton. Never seems to run as I expect it to, and horses can show form here that they don't show on the other AW courses. Kempton 7.10 - Reposer (26.00) Really tough race. Lots of horses have a good past record here making it very competitive. Difficult to get a read on the pace of the race with so many if/buts/maybes but I think the prominent animals edge it. Alot will depend on how they line up after the first 50yards. I'm going to be cautious and stick to a single selection at a big price. Reposer does best when allowed to run free and won in this manner 3lto. Has never really had the inside draw it wants to do this though, but today has stall 1. There was a time (and perhaps still is) when backing blind all horses near the rail at Kempton was profitable - with shock results - donkeys winning races etc. So I'll have a go at that here. Kempton 7.40 - Mad Ginger Alice (11.00), The Which Doctor (17.00) A race of two halves with those drawn inside accounting for all the pace and those outside wanting to be held-up. At least 7/14 will go slow away. Two hold-up horses in draws 1 and 2 have their chances ruined and leave the rail exposed to Sasheen and Peponi who are ideally positioned to take advantage of the strong drawn bias at Kempton. However these two lack the finishing speed to take the race to a conclusion. With no strong established frontrunner I'm willing to take a gamble on Mad Ginger Alice whp hasn't put a foot wrong in her 3 runs to date. Winning lto at Kempton by setting off quickly and with the same jockey again, I expect connections to try for a repeat of that performance. Has been given a very lenient debut mark of 67 leaving her at the bottom of the handicap. Overall an unknown quantity but looks to have amazing potential. With all the pace horses drawn together it is possible that they all try to out do each other depending on how many think they can get the rail. I've had good results so far backing wide-drawn proven hold-up horses in these full-field handicaps and I may have found another in The Which Doctor. Won 3lto over C&D from a high draw but has been inconsistent since then and no excuses lto. Looks a hot/cold type but I like it.