intowin2 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Hi all I am a first timer so excuse me for being in the wrong forum or any general ignorance. I have as yet not placed any bets and giving some serious thought before I do. I have some thoughts on a football system that is based on the odd/even goal market depending on the likelyhood of a draw. My thinking is: If the odds on a draw are high (5.0 or higher) then the chances of the result being ODD goal should increase. All draws are EVEN and theoretically if the chance of a draw is low the chance of an EVEN outcome should be reduced. Any thoughts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorro Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Re: Backing Odd goal market when Draw Odds are High seems too much of a gamble according to me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Re: Backing Odd goal market when Draw Odds are High Hi all My thinking is: If the odds on a draw are high (5.0 or higher) then the chances of the result being ODD goal should increase. All draws are EVEN and theoretically if the chance of a draw is low the chance of an EVEN outcome should be reduced. Any thoughts I've done no research on this, but I guess that probability of a draw should be well reflected in Even/odd market as well. So it is doubtfull if there is any chance to capitalise on this. But I like your way of thinking:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
syamster Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Re: Backing Odd goal market when Draw Odds are High then what happens if the score is 2-0, 3-1, 0-2, 1-3 ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
intowin2 Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Re: Backing Odd goal market when Draw Odds are High Thanks for your reply. Generally Ladbrokes (eg) offer the same odds on this matket regardless 1.9 Odd and 1.85 EVEN (nice house edge I know). The market is not available in-play so no fluctations there either. If I back ODDS @ 1.9 and Draw @ 5.5 I eliminate 0-0 1-1 2-2 3-3 etc from the possible EVEN outcomes against me. In such a senario when odds for draw are higher than 5.0 the odds on the underdog winning are generally higher than 9.0 or 10.0 So in theory that reduces the chance of 2-0 3-1 4-2 win on the underdog side. Scores to worry about 2-0 3-1 4-2 etc. Question is am I creating an edge for myself? If anyone has access to stats and pre game odds my question would be: Does a Odd goal result occure more frequently when pre-game odds on the draw were high? Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Re: Backing Odd goal market when Draw Odds are High If anyone has access to stats and pre game odds my question would be: Does a Odd goal result occure more frequently when pre-game odds on the draw were high? Thanks Grab the data from Football-Data and work it out for yourself. Could prove quite interesting............ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorro Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Re: Backing Odd goal market when Draw Odds are High 2.5% on a count of 40 can hardly call that a promising statistic :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jl294 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Re: Backing Odd goal market when Draw Odds are High I tested this last night on 550 games from football-data odds history. Profit = 21 units. Pretty good? I'm not sure. Think you definately get an edge by doing this. However, it will take alot of bets to make it worthwhile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Re: Backing Odd goal market when Draw Odds are High I tested this last night on 550 games from football-data odds history. Profit = 21 units. Pretty good? I'm not sure. Think you definately get an edge by doing this. However, it will take alot of bets to make it worthwhile. Yep, it is not a gold mine. Anyway I am surprised markets are not efficient in this instance. It is also worth noting the method: odds in one of the markets serve as a criteria for another. Something could be more succesfully exploited in other sports (for soccer beeing much more efficient then less popular sports). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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